PRE-ELECTION VIEW FROM THE SRI LANKAN FRONT LINE:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001875

SIPDIS

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINS PTER CE
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION VIEW FROM THE SRI LANKAN FRONT LINE:
VAVUNIYA AND MINNERIYA


Classified By: DCM James F. Entwistle. Reason: 1.4 (B,D)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C/NF) During a mid-October trip to the Sri Lankan Army
(SLA) Headquarters near the front lines, interlocutors from
Vavuniya said the situation there and at the Omanthai
Entry/Exit Point demarcating Tiger-controlled territory was
relatively calm, but expressed concern at continued ceasefire
violations. Interlocutors in the East said there has been an
increase in Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) activity.
In both locations, it was predicted that LTTE activity, both
military and propaganda, would increase prior to the upcoming
November 17 presidential election. Interlocutors from the SLA
continued to express frustration at their inability to react
to Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) violations by the LTTE, in the
perceived absence of a response from the Sri Lankan Monitoring
Mission (SLMM). In Vavuniya, local officials are working with
the SLA to ensure that access to the polling stations from
uncleared (i.e. LTTE-controlled) areas is streamlined. The
LTTE's reaction to the presidential campaign, whether they
will support one candidate over another, or try to impede
voters in the uncleared areas from voting remains a mystery.
END SUMMARY

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CFA: ADVANTAGE LTTE?
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2. (C/NF) On October 18 the DCM, accompanied by CAO, DATT,
SAO, and RSO visited Vavuniya and met with military and civil
officials. The SLA in Vavuniya oversees 163 kilometers of
the Forward Defensive Line (FDL) from Vankulai in the west to
Kokkuthduuai in the east. The AOR is home to more than 1.67
million Sri Lankans and has a majority 73% Sinhalese
population, with Tamils representing 13% and Muslims another
13%. The Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) opened the Omanthai
Entry/Exit Point in Vavuniya and has resulted in greater
prosperity in the region and increased traffic, as the
checkpoint is the primary crossing point between cleared
south and uncleared north areas. The CFA also brought,
according to Major General Paarami S.B. Kulatunge, Commander
of Sri Lanka Forces at Vavuniya, an increase in LTTE
propaganda and infiltration into the Vavuniya area south of
the Entry/Exit point. The LTTE has six political offices in
the cleared areas of Vavuniya. Kulatunge commented that
there is little enforcement of the CFA by the SLMM,
complaining that the SLA can report violations to the SLMM
but do nothing else.


3. (C/NF) Major General Kulatunge painted a dire portrait of
the military situation on the ground in the area under his
command in the event of all out war. He reported that the
LTTE across the FDL has the advantage of knowing where army
fixed positions are located. According to Kulatunge, the
Tigers can wreak significant damage if they ever decide to
break the CFA because the LTTE has gathered intelligence on
SLA FDL strong points and LTTE equipment can jam SLA radios.
While acknowledging CFA violations such as intimidation of
Tamil and Muslim businesses in the cleared area, the use of
radio communication, and occasional abductions and political
assassinations, Kulatunge nonetheless views Vavuniya as
relatively violence-free compared with other areas in the
north and east. In the past six months, there have been 9
killed, 2 injured and 57 abducted by the LTTE. SLA
interlocutors stressed that they do not foresee the Tigers
attempting to provoke military hostilities in Vavuniya
primarily because the CFA - and the taxes the Tigers can
collect on travelers crossing the checkpoint - are good
business. For the first three quarters of 2005, the LTTE tax
revenue from the Omanthai checkpoint was 1.627 billion rupees
(approx. $16,300,000 USD),representing a substantial
increase from the 1.246 billion rupees (approx. $12,400,000
USD) that was collected over the entire 2004 calendar year.

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AGA SEES LTTE LASSITUDE
THIS ELECTION BUT SLA READY FOR "UNCLEARED" VOTERS
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4. (C) DCM and delegation also met with Vavuniya Additional
Government Agent (AGA),P.S.M. Charles. Charles said that
Vavuniya has experienced increasing prosperity since the CFA
due to a booming trade between cleared and uncleared areas
and the investment of many newly returned Sri Lankans who
fled the country during the height of the war. Unlike
Kulatunge, Charles did not focus on the CFA violations in the
cleared area of Vavuniya.


5. (C) Charles said she did not know how the upcoming
presidential election will play out in the area. She
predicted, however, that the November 17 polls would not
attract as many voters from the uncleared areas as the April
2004 general election did because the LTTE felt it had a
greater stake in the outcome then and thus encouraged
participation from the uncleared area. Neither candidate in
the upcoming presidential election will elicit the same
support by the LTTE, she speculated.


6. (C/NF) Contrary to what the AGA said, the SLA Commander
at Omanthai said they are they are preparing for 50,000
voters to cross from LTTE-controlled territory for the
presidential election - up from 30,000 in the 2004 general
election. (On average, approximately 10,000 people and 2,000
- 3,000 vehicles cross the Entry/Exit point on a working
day.) He reported that his troops at the checkpoint would
facilitate quick crossing to the polling stations, which are
to be set up one kilometer inside the cleared area. An
additional perimeter will be added after the polling station,
where those traveling to the cleared area for reasons other
than to vote will be subject to additional security checks.

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ALL NOT SO QUIET
ON THE EASTERN FRONT
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7. (C/NF) Major General T.T.R. De Silva, Commander of
Security Forces (East),and Brigadier Rohan M. Jayasinghe,
Brigadier General Staff (formerly Defense Attach at Sri
Lankan Embassy in Washington, DC) met the delegation at the
Security Forces Headquarters (East) in Minneriya in
Polonnaruwa district later the same day. De Silva told the
delegation that the Karuna faction has been very active in
the east (Polonnaruwa borders Batticaloa District),
estimating that there are between 200-300 combatants in the
area. The LTTE has repeatedly sent cadres to attack the
Karuna faction and harass the SLA, in an effort to show a
relationship between Karuna's forces and the SLA, De Silva
asserted. He told the delegation that recently the SLA
spotted 35 Karuna cadres in the area and shortly thereafter
spotted a large number of LTTE (Wanni) cadres that appeared
to be tracking the Karuna cadres. The violation of the CFA
was reported to the SLMM, but no action was taken. Between
April 2004 and October 2005, the Karuna faction has killed
107 LTTE (Wanni) cadres and the LTTE has killed 48 Karuna
cadres in the East. Three-fourths of the killings occurred
in LTTE-controlled areas. Since the CFA was signed in 2002,
the LTTE has committed approximately 159 murders, 190
attempted murders, and 326 abductions in the East; however
the exact figures are unknown since many attacks go unreported.


8. (C/NF) De Silva and Jayasinghe predicted that prior to the
upcoming presidential election, there would be a surge in
LTTE activity, including forced recruitment, military
training of civilians, and attacks on small military and
police posts. The SLA also believes that in preparation for
the upcoming change in government, the LTTE is strengthening
its political presence by relocating LTTE sympathizers into
unoccupied land around the main roads in Trincomalee and by
promoting cultural propaganda like the "Tamil Nation
Resurgence" movement.

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COMMENT
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9. (C/NF) In the 2001 general election some members of the
military were accused of preventing voters from LTTE-controlled
territory entering cleared areas to vote. It is reassuring to
hear that the SLA is prepared to help ensure trouble-free
voting for citizens crossing from LTTE-controlled territory
to cast their ballots in this election, but a lot obviously
depends on the Tigers themselves. We have heard (as AGA
Charles suggested) the LTTE is not as interested in the
outcome of this election compared to a parliamentary election.
Our sense is that the LTTE is watching the campaign closely
and that its leadership feels it has a critical stake in the
result. How that influences Tiger behavior-whether it elicits
a get-out-the-vote effort to support a particular candidate,
as in the 2004 general election, or violent attacks aimed at
eliminating a particular candidate, as in the last two
presidential polls, remains the great unknown.


10. (C/NF) The familiar SLA refrain about the SLMM's
"inability" to respond to CFA violations reflects a lack of
understanding (willful or otherwise) that the SLMM's mandate
is monitoring and reporting, nothing more. But, it also
reflects the fact that the CFA was expected to last 3 - 6
months as a final peace deal was put in place. Instead it
has remained in effect for three years - probably a record
anywhere for CFA maintenance in the absence of a viable peace
process. END COMMENT
LUNSTEAD