MALDIVES: REFORM CANDIDATES MAKE GAINS AS POLLS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000181

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR SA/INS
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: REFORM CANDIDATES MAKE GAINS AS POLLS
CLOSE

REF: COLOMBO 0149


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With one exception, polls to elect
representatives to the People's Majlis, or Parliament, closed
throughout this island nation on January 22. Although
counting continues, preliminary results indicate a solid
showing for pro-reform candidates, with the Presidential
Spokesman predicting they will capture nearly a quarter of
the seats. Mohammad Latheef, the head of the Maldivian
Democratic Party, termed the results "a resounding victory"
that strengthens the case for legalizing political parties in
the Maldives. End summary.


2. (U) With one exception, polls to elect representatives
to the People's Majlis closed on time on January 22. (Note:
The one exception was a resort island on which many of the
residents are workers registered to vote in other
constituencies. Polling closed there the following day, and
the ballot box reached the counting center in Male' by 10:00
p.m. that night. End note.) According to Ismail Habeeb, a
member of the Election Task Force, counting had been
completed in 4 of the 21 constituencies as of late morning
January 24. Counting was proceeding smoothly, Habeeb said,
with no evidence of irregularities. He added that
representatives from both SAARC and the Commonwealth
Secretariat were observing the process. Final results are

SIPDIS
not expected to be announced until late January 26.


3. (SBU) Rasheeda Ali, a member of the Maldivian Human
Rights Commission (MHRC),said that the MHRC had not received
any feedback as of mid-morning January 24 from the 25
election monitors it had trained. (Note: Our colleagues at
Commonwealth missions in Colombo tell us that they have not
yet received a read-out from the Commonwealth observer team
either.) According to Ali, the MHRC had received only one
report of a disturbance on election day: a scuffle at a
polling station in the capital city of Male' in which five
people were arrested. Presidential Spokesman Dr. Ahmed
Shaheed told us that the incident was orchestrated by "thugs"
in the pay of the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party
(MDP). Shaheed added that only one person--who he said was
found in possession of a knife--remained in detention as of
January 24.


4. (SBU) Despite the logistical constraints posed by the
recent tsunami, the entire voting process had been conducted
"credibly," Shaheed told poloff, as evidenced by the strong
showing posted by pro-reform candidates. Based on
preliminary returns, Shaheed predicted that MDP candidates
would win 8-10 of the 42 available seats. (Note: The most
notable winner appears to be Ibrahim Ismail, one of four
pro-reform Special Majlis MPs who had been detained and
charged with sedition by the Government following the August
12-13 civil unrest. Ismail outpaced 13 other contenders as
the highest vote-getter in the capital city of Male'.)
Shaheed said he was personally surprised by the MDP's
performance, adding that he had believed Government-backed
candidates would be able to parley the Government's energetic
tsunami relief efforts into victory at the ballot box. The

SIPDIS
number of eligible voters swelled by more than 57 percent
compared with the last People's Majlis elections five years
ago, an increase Shaheed attributed to the demographic bulge
of Maldivians between the ages of 21-25. The greater
percentage of younger voters in the electorate is likely a
significant factor in the MDP's solid showing, he theorized.


5. (SBU) Mohammad Latheef, head of the MDP who lives in Sri
Lanka, told poloff on January 24 that the election results
constituted "a resounding victory" for his party. (Note:
Maldivian law does not recognize political parties, and the
MDP is not registered as a party in Maldives. Because
candidates cannot claim a party affiliation when registering,
it is often difficult for an outsider to determine which
candidates are pro-MDP. MDP critics claim that the
organization adopts a particularly liberal and inclusive view
of its membership, dubbing many unaffiliated winners as MDP
candidates in an effort to appear more popular. Many MDP
leaders, including Latheef, citing the fear of arrest and
suppression in Maldives, live in self-imposed exile in Sri
Lanka and other countries. End note.) The MDP's strong
performance at the polls was a clear mandate, he said, which
the Government should recognize by legalizing the party.
When asked if the "resounding victory" was evidence that the
elections were free and fair, Latheef demurred, claiming that
the Government had actively discouraged many sure-to-win MDP
candidates from running in the election in the first place.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: With the counting continuing and the
reports from the assorted international, national and
regional election observers still pending, it is too early to
pass judgment on the freeness or fairness of the polls. With
only one report so far of a disturbance--and with even the
quick-to-complain Latheef citing only pre-election
atmospherics as an inhibiting factor--we have seen no
evidence so far that these elections were any less free or
fair than previous polls. That they took place at all--and
more or less on schedule--is a tribute to Government
efficiency and organization--as well as an indication of the
degree of internal and international pressure it felt to
conduct a credible exercise. If pro-reform candidates post
as strong a showing as expected, it will be become
increasingly difficult for the Government to ignore calls to
move toward a party system.

ENTWISTLE