MALDIVIAN DEMOCRATIC REFORMS: PROGRESS PLODDING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 COLOMBO 001716

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM EAID MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVIAN DEMOCRATIC REFORMS: PROGRESS PLODDING
BUT POSITIVE

REF: A. COLOMBO 1680

B. COLOMBO 1669

C. COLOMBO 1530

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD. REASON: 1.4 (B,D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) During a September 25-27 visit to Maldives as part of
the first US-Maldives Friendship Week (septel),Ambassador
met Government of Republic of Maldives (GORM)
representatives, including President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom,
and opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) leaders to
discuss the aftermath of the August 12-14 unrest in Male' and
its impact on democratic reform. Interlocutors' assessments
of the reform effort varied predictably, with GORM leaders,
including Gayoom, asserting an overall positive trend,
despite some bumps along the way, and MDP activists accusing
the President of only pretending to reform to placate the
international community. We believe the truth lies somewhere
in between: Gayoom recognizes the need for reform--whether
he genuinely wants it or not--but wants to control the pace
and scope more rigidly than the MDP and others might wish.
International engagement with the GORM, especially in the
form of democracy-building activities, seems the best way to
ensure steady, if not rapid, progress. The Ambassador,
stressing the widespread popular desire for change, noted
that reform, while difficult, is necessary. How and when
these reforms take place is up to Maldivians to decide, he
emphasized; all parties should work together to find a
satisfactory compromise. He underscored the need for due
process in the upcoming trials of MDP Chairman Mohamed
Nasheed and other MDP activists detained after the August
12-14 disturbances, while advising his MDP interlocutors of
their party's responsibility to ensure that MDP assemblies
remain peaceful. Deputy Foreign Minister Aminath Didi
assured the Ambassador that the Government will move quickly
to conclude the bilateral agreement on tsunami aid. End
summary.

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GAYOOM: EXTENDING ONE "HAND IN FRIENDSHIP" TO ALL PARTIES;
OTHER HAND COMPILING "DOCUMENTARY" EVIDENCE AGAINST MDP
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2. (SBU) During a September 25-27 visit to Maldives as part
of an inaugural US-Maldives Friendship Week (septel),
Ambassador held a series of discussions with Government of
Republic of Maldives (GORM) representatives, including
President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, and opposition Maldivian
Democratic Party (MDP) leaders to discuss the August 12-14
unrest in Male' and its impact on proposed democratic
reforms. In all his meetings, the Ambassador noted the many
difficult but important changes the GORM was attempting to
undertake and emphasized the mutual responsibilities of
government (to protect freedoms of speech and assembly) and
political parties (to speak and assemble peacefully) in a
democracy.


3. (C) In his September 26 meeting with Gayoom, the
Ambassador expressed gratitude for Gayoom's message of
condolence for the victims of Hurricane Katrina and the
Maldivian government's gift of USD 25,000. Noting that
several significant reforms, including the registration of
political parties, had recently occurred, the Ambassador
asked Gayoom how he perceived reforms were proceeding. The
Special Majlis on constitutional reform (which has spent more
than a year just debating rules of procedure) has at last
finalized almost all of the rules, Gayoom reported, and
should be ready to "begin grappling with the reform agenda"
once it reconvenes October 1. With technical assistance
provided by constitutional experts from the Commonwealth and
India, the Special Majlis might be able to complete review of
the proposed amendments by the end of 2006, he said.
(Comment: This is a far more leisurely time frame than
Gayoom originally suggested.)


4. (C) The government moved quickly to allow formation of
political parties before people even understood what parties
are, Gayoom asserted; thus "tensions are only to be
expected." The Ambassador agreed that reform is difficult on
all sides; the GORM must foster an atmosphere conducive to
responsible political expression, including provision for
free speech, while the opposition has a responsibility to
demonstrate its dissent in a peaceful and orderly fashion.
He noted that Assistant Secretary for South Asian Affairs
Christina Rocca, in a taped message played at the Friendship
Week reception the night before, had stressed these same
themes. The GORM has begun a dialogue with political parties
on two important pieces of legislation--one governing the
Maldivian Human Rights Commission (MHRC) and the other on the
registration of political parties, Gayoom told the
Ambassador, "but MDP has refused to come," citing the
continued detention of MDP Chairman Mohamed Nasheed as a
"pretext." Describing the MDP rebuff as "sad," the President
said the GORM "has extended our hand in friendship to all
parties" and it was "not reasonable" of the MDP to stay away.


5. (C) Commending the President's offer of dialogue to the
MDP, the Ambassador emphasized the need for due process in
the trials of Nasheed and other detainees. Nasheed is facing
very serious charges, the President replied, for which the
Attorney General has compiled extensive "documentary
evidence," including 1,000 pages of "inflammatory" speeches
and 90 videos of MDP-incited violence. (Comment: Given that
the MDP Chairman had only been in Maldives four months at the
time of his arrest, that there are 1,000 pages of his
speeches available as evidence of sedition is impressive by
even the ever-prolix Nasheed's standards. End comment.) The
GORM plans to invite a representative of the International
Committee of Jurists (ICJ) when Nasheed's trial commences in
"a week to ten days," Gayoom said.

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ATTORNEY GENERAL: ENUMERATES REFORMS,
CONFIDENT OF EVIDENCE AGAINST NASHEED
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6. (C) In a September 27 meeting with the Ambassador,
Attorney General Dr. Hassan Saeed recounted some of the
improvements he had recently introduced to the prosecutorial
and legal systems. For example, in 2003 97 percent of
convictions were based on confessions, he reported. Thanks
to his efforts to encourage investigations built on other
evidence, that number had dropped to 64 percent over the past
year alone. Interrogations of suspects must now be
videotaped and conducted in the presence of legal counsel;
copies of the videotape are given to the judge and are
available to defense counsel upon request. All trials are
open to the public, he continued, and the ICJ has been given
permission to observe Nasheed's trial. A bail system has
been introduced, although Saeed acknowledged inconsistencies
in its application. He plans to hold a "seminar" on the
proper operation of the system for the relevant authorities
soon. He has invited all registered political parties to
discussions on pending legislation governing political
parties and the MHRC, but (as the President had told the
Ambassador the previous day) the MDP had refused to
participate. "If they claim to be serious about reform, why
can't they participate?" Saeed asked. Finally, he told the
Ambassador, he has drafted a "road map" for continued reform
which he had presented to the President on September 26.



7. (C) The Ambassador welcomed these initiatives, including
the decision to allow ICJ to observe Nasheed's trial, adding
that people in Maldives and the international community would
be following that process closely. The US takes no position
on Nasheed's guilt or innocence, the Ambassador stressed, but
is concerned that the trial be conducted fairly and
transparently. Nasheed faces very serious charges, including
sedition, he observed; the evidence needed to prove such a
charge must meet a high standard. The GORM has evidence that
proves Nasheed's guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, Saeed
rejoined. In the lead-up to the August 12 protest, the AG
continued, he had met with several MDP leaders to urge them
against public demonstrations and most--with the notable
exception of Nasheed--agreed to desist. Nasheed had been
determined to get himself arrested since he returned Maldives
last April, Saeed asserted, "as a short cut to being a hero."
Nasheed now realizes the seriousness of the charges he
faces, Saeed said, hinting that he expects a possible
breakthrough in the MDP leader's plea that could obviate the
need for a trial. When asked how many detainees besides
Nasheed will also be charged, Saeed did not provide a precise
number, although he noted that of the 23 cases referred to
him for prosecution, "some had been sent back" for
insufficient evidence.


8. (C) Saeed said that he had warned the President that it
was a mistake to legalize political parties without first
adequately educating the people about party roles and
responsibilities. In retrospect, the Government should take
some responsibility for the "failure" of this initiative so
far, he told the Ambassador. That said, the MDP's insistence
that Gayoom step down is misguided, the AG suggested. If a
new government were to come in, its first priority would be
to consolidate its own power and strengthen its position. In
contrast, Gayoom, confident in his authority, "is keen to
lead reform and strengthen institutions." That is why the
reform process must be "government-led at this stage," Saeed
explained. MDP should realize that reform is coming, with or
without them, he continued. If the party truly wants reform,
it should get on board and "be a part of history."

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WHERE'S THE PARTY?:
REGISTRATION WITHOUT REPRESENTATION
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9. (C) The Ambassador met a group of MDP leaders, including
former SAARC Secretary General Ibrahim Zaki, People's Majlis
MPs Ibrahim Ismail and Hassan Afeef, and former UNDP official
Dr. Waheed Hassan, at MDP headquarters on September 27. The
MDP representatives complained of GORM distortions and
misrepresentations, especially to the international
community, and expressed overwhelming suspicion of Gayoom's
sincerity. To keep Gayoom to his commitments, the
international community must play "a stronger role," they
asserted, adding that they had demanded third-party
international observers, perhaps from the Commonwealth, be
present at all MDP discussions with the GORM--including the
meetings proposed by the Attorney General on the political
parties and MHRC bills.


10. (C) The international community should not be fooled by
the "pictures" of so-called reform Gayoom is trotting out,
the opposition members cautioned; they may sound good but
they have little of real substance. They offered several
examples:

--Political parties: The GORM has allowed political parties
to register but to do nothing else, they charged. They cited
a recent announcement by the Election Commissioner that
parties would not be able to run candidates in an upcoming
by-election for the Special Majlis. What is the purpose of
political parties if not to run in elections, they queried.
Moreover, the GORM continues to deny the MDP access to
state-run media, they asserted, and uses a combination of
intimidation (threats that civil servants will lose their
jobs) and bribery (promise of overseas
scholarships/exchanges) to recruit membership in Gayoom's
party.

--Bail: The investigating officer decides who gets bail and
who doesn't--not a judge. Since the investigating officer
has always had the prerogative to release a detainee or keep
him locked up, how has this improved the situation, they
asked.

--Rallies: Political parties, upon application to the Home
Affairs Ministry, may obtain permission to hold a rally, but
the GORM still gets to choose the venue. MDP "rallies" are
largely confined to small school classrooms that cannot
accommodate the number of people generally associated with
the term "rally," they lamented.

--Independent judiciary: The MDP alleges that the police and
National Security Service destroyed party property during the
August 12-14 demonstrations, but each of the three
courts--Lower, Higher and Supreme--has refused to hear the
case.

--Invitations for dialogue: MDP members have taken up these
offers in the past, and nothing has ever come of it, they
charged. To build up this shattered confidence, the MDP
wants the President to offer "an action plan (for reform)
with measurable results and a timeline."


11. (C) The Ambassador replied that, in his view, the MDP
was overestimating the influence of the international
community and underestimating the pressure of Maldivian
society. The international community can support the process
from the outside, he said, but only Maldivians can make it
happen. While ideas on the ideal pace may differ--with the
MDP arguing for immediate, dramatic change and those in the
GORM seeing the need for more measured process--there is
nonetheless broad consensus on both sides that reform must
occur, the Ambassador observed. The MDP should not miss the
chance for dialogue with the GORM, he argued, especially
since many new members of the Cabinet are clearly reform
proponents. If this opportunity is missed, there is always
the danger that the intense popular desire for change may go
the wrong way toward extremism or militancy--which would be
bad for all Maldivians, regardless of political persuasion.

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NEW CABINET MEMBERS WITH NEW IDEAS
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12. (C) In a September 27 meeting with the Ambassador, newly
appointed Home Affairs Minister Ahmed Thasmeen Ali lamented
that the August 12-14 disturbances and subsequent spate of
arrests "took us away from our reform agenda." Besides
introducing appropriate training for the police (which just
separated from the National Security Service last year),Ali
also has ambitious plans to improve the prison system. He
wants to improve training, recruitment and compensation for
prison guards to help build up a professional officer corps.
As a start, the Australian government has sent a technical
advisor who will spend six months at the prison on Mahfushi
Island. In addition, Ali has begun a project to improve the
physical infrastructure at the prisons. To alleviate
overcrowding, he is exploring the possibility of opening
separate drug rehabilitation facilities for those convicted
only of narcotics possession.


13. (SBU) Atoll Development Minister Mohamed Deen, a former
member of the Maldivian Human Rights Commission, told the
Ambassador in a separate meeting the same day of his plans to
decentralize island administration by having a
multii-partisan Island Council, appointed by the local
population, that would have authority to tell the
centrally-appointed island chief what to do. With the
islanders deciding for themselves many of the functions now
performed by the Atoll Development bureaurcracy. "in two
years this ministry shouldn't exist." He is also considering
a two-term limit for island chiefs, many of whom have
retained that comfortable sinecure for decades; he has
"already removed some old island chiefs" from their posts.
The key to successful democratic reform, Deen stressed, is
appropriate civic education. To help familiarize young
Maldivians with democratic precepts and to train the leaders
of tomorrow, he hopes to sponsor (in part with his own funds
as a resort owner) student exchange programs with high
schools in the west.

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TSUNAMI RECONSTRUCTION

SIPDIS
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14. (SBU) In a September 27 meeting, Deputy Minister of
Foreign Affairs Aminath Didi assured the Ambassador that the
MOU on tsunami reconstruction would be signed soon. While
the GORM has some minor questions on details in the
agreement, she said there is no problem with the general
language of the document, and she believes the remaining
details can be worked out later. During the meeting with
Gayoom the previous day, the President told the Ambassador
that reconstruction is proceeding. The GORM has already
awarded contracts to seven companies, and construction will
continue despite the upcoming Ramadan fast.

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COMMENT
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15. (C) Substantial changes are occurring in Maldives--maybe
not fast enough or dramatically enough for the MDP and other
critics of the Government--but occurring just the same.
While there is significant disagreement about Gayoom's
motives for introducing reform, he clearly seems
determined--or perhaps resigned--to doing so. The MDP should
not miss an opportunity to influence and help shape this
important process. Nor should the GORM, whether through
intimidation, show "trials" of key opposition leaders or
repression of legitimate party activities, discourage the MDP
from such engagement. The upcoming trial of MDP Chairman
Nasheed could prove an important test of the GORM's
much-reiterated commitment to due process and freedom of
expression.
LUNSTEAD