MALDIVES: FORMER DETAINEE-TURNED-CABINET MINISTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001621

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM EFIN MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: FORMER DETAINEE-TURNED-CABINET MINISTER
ASSERTS GAYOOM ACTING IN "GOOD FAITH"

REF: A. COLOMBO 1530

B. COLOMBO 1556

Classified By: DCM JAMES F. ENTWISTLE. REASON: 1.4 (B,D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) In a September 6 meeting with the DCM in Colombo,
Maldivian Foreign Minister Dr. Ahmed Shaheed and Finance
Minister Qasim Ibrahim each asserted their strong belief in
President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom's commitment to democratic
reform, citing several recent positive developments, such as
the decision to register political parties, as proof.
Foreign Minister Shaheed reported that the Government will
urge the Special Majlis to adopt a "roadmap" to reform but
sidestepped the question of whether the roadmap would include
a timetable. With the appointment of Qasim, who spent
several months in solitary confinement after the August 12-14
unrest in 2004, the Government is eager to show Gayoom is
bringing "reform-minded" people into his inner circle. End
summary.


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OUT OF THE PRISON CELL;
INTO THE CABINET
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2. (SBU) In a September 6 meeting with the DCM in Colombo,
Maldivian Foreign Minister Dr. Ahmed Shaheed and Finance
Minister Qasim Ibrahim each asserted their strong belief in
President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom's commitment to democratic
reform. Qasim, who was previously affiliated with the
opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and spent several
months in solitary confinement on Dhoonidhoo Island following
the August 12-14 demonstrations in 2004, was accompanied by
former fellow Dhoonidhoo inmate and MDP sympathizer Mohamed
Naseem, now Executive Director of the Ministry of Finance.
Shaheed noted that Gayoom's recent appointments of new
Ministers had brought a "reform-minded group" into the
Cabinet who "have the determination to bring the political
party process forward."


3. (C) After thanking the Ministers for their government's
expression of condolence and offer of assistance for the
victims of Hurricane Katrina (Ref B),the DCM asked about the
situation in Maldives following the demonstrations of August
12-14 this year and subsequent detentions of numerous
protesters and opposition activists (Ref A). Qasim noted
that even during his extended detention last year on
Dhoonidhoo, he nonetheless remained convinced of President
Gayoom's commitment to reform. "I said I was sure he'd take
the (reform) agenda forward; now he has done so," the new
Finance Minister declared, citing the June 2 decision to
register political parties, expanded freedom of press, and
recent changes to the Cabinet (including his own appointment)
as evidence of Gayoom's "good faith" efforts to move ahead.
The August 12-14 detentions this year following the MDP
demonstrations were necessary, he indicated; "otherwise, we'd
have chaos." In an aside, he observed that mult-party
democracy "costs a lot," adding that now "the Government has
to please more people."


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FOREIGN MINISTER CITES PROGRESS;
ACKNOWLEDGES CONTINUED DETENTIONS
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4. (C) FM Shaheed reported that "40 or so detainees" remain
in custody, of which 25 may have had previous convictions for
various offenses, including narcotics possession. The
remainder, according to Shaheed, were either involved in the
protests August 12-14 or have been identified as
"ringleaders" inciting the unrest--even if they did not
actually participate in the demonstrations. (Note: We know
of at least one detainee who was not even in Male' on August
12-14 but who has nonetheless been dubbed a "ringleader."
End note.) The Foreign Minister then enumerated several
positive developments since the August 12-14 unrest. In
addition to the August 19 visit by an ICRC delegation, a
representative from the International Committee of Jurists
had attended the August 24 arraignment of MDP Chairman
Mohamed Nasheed (Ref B),Shaheed noted, while a recent joint
Canadian-EU "fact-finding mission" had been allowed to visit
detainees and reported finding the treatment of detainees
improved from last year. In addition, the Government may
sign the Optional Protocol Against Torture during the United
Nations General Assembly this month, Shaheed said.


5. (C) Despite the disturbances of the previous month, the
Foreign Minister continued, the Government gave the MDP
permission to resume public meetings as long as no
loudspeakers were used. After the MDP flouted this
restriction, however, the Government was forced once more to
call on September 5 a two-week moratorium on such gatherings.
(Note: The Government lifted the moratorium the following
day. End note.) Shaheed expressed concern that some members
of the MDP would use the September 19 death anniversary of
two inmates during a 2003 prison uprising as a pretext for
creating fresh disturbances. However, "by and large, the MDP
is trying to distance itself from violence," Shaheed
emphasized. To encourage non-violent political debate, the
Attorney General has invited representatives from all parties
for a dialogue on proposed reform, the Foreign Minister
reported. "The Government is trying to provide an outlet"
for discontent other than street protests, he added.

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ROADMAP--BUT NO TIMETABLE
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6. (C) The DCM asked the Ministers if they were satisfied
with the pace of reform so far. Acknowledging that the
Special Majlis had not moved expeditiously to enact reform,
Shaheed said, "However fast we go, there will be problems
because of the magnitude of the changes we're trying to
make." After the Special Majlis reconvenes on October 1, the
Government will propose a "roadmap" to reform that will
include key benchmarks, such as electoral reform, voter
education, judicial reform, presidential term limits and
revisions to the penal code. When asked whether a timeframe,
however notional, would be attached to the roadmap, Shaheed
responded that the Government would "list out the tasks to be
done in some kind of sequence," but cannot dictate a
timetable independent of the Special Majlis. Special Majlis
deliberations on the proposed reforms should be complete
within one year, Shaheed predicted, but cautioned that actual
"implementation would have to be phased in" more gradually.
"We can't speed up reform at the expense of debate."
(Comment: Apparently debate cannot be speeded up either.
The Special Majlis has been debating rules of
procedure--never mind any actual reforms--for more than a
year. End comment.) Given the numerous fundamental changes
still pending, Shaheed commented, "we can't think of holding
(presidential) elections until we know what we're voting for.
. . . We have to make sure we have sufficient mechanisms in
place" to resolve the disputes that will inevitably arise in
the course of the first multi-party election. In light of
these constraints, Shaheed said, presidential elections are
unlikely to be held before 2008.



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COMMENT
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7. (C) A year ago at this time, Qasim was in solitary
confinement on Dhoonidhoo (and, during two of our visits to
him and Naseem, exhibiting signs of mental stress),and the
Government was preparing sedition charges against him. Now
he is the premier member of a "reform-minded group" in the
Cabinet that the Government hopes will convince the
international community that Gayoom's commitment to
reform--although sometimes derailed by periodic arrests of
opposition figures--remains constant. While many recent
steps, like the registration of political parties and the
expansion of the Cabinet, indeed suggest that the Government
is on the right track, Gayoom will have to overcome his
default response to opposition--arresting the "ringleaders"
and charging them with sedition--before true reform can
occur. While we appreciate that the Government cannot
pre-empt the work of the Special Majlis by imposing time
limits on the "roadmap," adopting some kind of prospective
timeframe for proposed reforms to be enacted could bolster
public confidence in Gayoom's sincerity. DCM and Econchief
will have an opportunity to review the situation more closely
during their visit to Maldives September 14-15
LUNSTEAD