SRI LANKAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: JVP PONDERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001508

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2015
TAGS: PGOV CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: JVP PONDERS
PARTNERSHIP WITH PM

REF: COLOMBO 1503

Classified By: CHARGE' D'AFFAIRES JAMES F. ENTWISTLE. REASON: 1.4 (B,
D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Following the August 26 Supreme Court decision that
presidential elections must be held by November 22 (Reftel),
the nationalist Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) is
facing a fierce internal debate about whether to support Sri
Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) candidate and current Prime
Minister Mahinda Rajapakse or to run its own candidate. As
the price for its support, the JVP has asked the noncommittal
PM to endorse JVP positions on 12 controversial points of
policy --points like the peace process and privatization, on
which the JVP differed from its former SLFP coalition partner
during their short-lived alliance. Rajapakse's dallying with
the JVP may cost him votes from minority communities--as well
as the full backing of incumbent President Chandrika
Kumaratunga, a formidable and charismatic speaker whose full
support on the campaign trail Rajapakse could well use. As
always, the thinking of the ever-affable but seldom specific
PM is difficult to discern. End summary.

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JVP REDUX
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2. (SBU) The Sinhalese nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna
(JVP) is facing a fierce internal debate about whether to
support current Prime Minister and Sri Lanka Freedom Party
(SLFP) presidential candidate Mahinda Rajapakse or to field
its own candidate in the upcoming polls. (Note: The
Election Commissioner still has not announced a date for
presidential elections. According to the Supreme Court's
August 26 ruling, however, the elections must take place
between October 22 and November 22. End note.) JVP sources
have told us that JVP patriarch and policy wonk Somawansa
Amarasinghe is arguing against joining hands once more with
the JVP's erstwhile coalition partner, while firebrand
propagandist MP Wimal Weerawansa is pushing for his party to
make common cause with Rajapakse, a populist politician with
an agrarian southern Sinhalese voter base similar to the
JVP's.


3. (C) JVP Party Leader Amarasinghe, a policy purist,
reportedly does not want a repeat of SLFP "back-pedaling" on
such crucial points as the peace process and privatization,
which led to the eventual break-up of the United People's
Front Alliance in June. By backing Rajapakse, Amarasinghe
fears, the JVP's clear (some would say rigid) stand on these
issues would be muddied and compromised by SLFP centrists.
Instead, the JVP Leader wants his party to run its own
candidate. Weerawansa, on the other hand, believes the
promise of JVP support will be enough to move Rajapakse (left
on economic issues; right on the peace process) to advance
the party's goals--and to keep the opposition United National
Party out of office. Weerawansa is supported in this bid by
Rajapakse campaign manager and former Information Minister
Mangala Samaraweera.


4. (U) There was no evidence of internal discord at an
August 29 press conference in Colombo, however, in which
Weerawansa announced that the JVP would support Rajapakse,
provided that he endorse JVP positions on 12 separate points,
including the peace process, the principle of a unitary Sri
Lanka, privatization, and a proposed World Bank plan to
modify secondary education. A document enumerating these
points had been sent to the PM, Weerawansa said, adding that
the JVP was awaiting his response before deciding on whether
to run its own candidate.


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OTHER PARTIES' SUPPORT SOUGHT
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5. (SBU) Aside from a generic invitation at a public rally
down south to all "progressive forces," including the JVP, to
support his candidacy, the PM has made no direct overtures to
the JVP since the Supreme Court announcement. Nor is he
waiting for the JVP to make a decision before suing for the
support of other parties. On August 27 the PM's brother met
separately with the leaders of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress
(SLMC) and the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) to sound out
prospects for their support, while a delegation from the
Jathika Hela Urumayu (JHU),a right-wing Buddhist religious
party that is currently part of the Opposition, was meeting
the Prime Minister at COB August 29. (Note: The SLMC and
CWC have not yet committed their support to either candidate.
In general, however, many observers are expecting the
opposition United National Party to fare better with minority
voters. End note.)

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CHANDRIKA HOLDING BACK?
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6. (C) Other than an anodyne assurance from the Presidential
Secretariat that the upcoming polls will be free and fair,

SIPDIS
President Chandrika Kumaratunga has been uncharacteristically
closed-mouthed since the August 26 Supreme Court decision.
While her August 28 departure to China on a previously
scheduled official visit may explain part of her silence,
many observers are speculating that her own personal
ambivalence toward the SLFP candidate--and reported suspicion
that he may somehow have had a hand in the Supreme Court
decision that ended her Presidential tenure a year earlier
than she wished--is contributing to the comparative and
atypical quiet from the President's House. Rajapakse's
prospects for success depend, in large degree, on whether the
President, a charismatic public speaker and formidable
campaigner, decides to offer her visible support and talents
to him along the electoral trail, according to some SLFP
partisans. Nishantha Ranatunga, Executive Director of the
state-owned Rupavahini Media Corporation and a long-time
"Chandrika's man," told poloff on August 27 that such support
from the President was not guaranteed. Presidential disquiet
about reports of a possible JVP-Rajapakse rapprochement may
also add to strained intra-party relations, SLFP sources
said, especially since the President blames the JVP for
abandoning the coalition (and destroying her majority in
Parliament) and scuttling her carefully negotiated agreement
on tsunami aid with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE).

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COMMENT
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7. (C) An independent JVP presidential candidacy would split
the left-leaning rural southern vote--thereby helping the
opposition United National Party (UNP) candidacy of former
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. The JVP must calculate
how far to push its "principled" stand on its trademark
issues of nationalism/no compromise with the Tigers/no
privatization--and how much it may get from Rajapakse in
return--without tipping the balance toward the UNP. Over the
past year, the Prime Minister has successfully avoided taking
controversial or potentially divisive public positions on the
peace process or tsunami reconstruction, often telling VIP
visitors that such matters were directly handled by President
Kumaratunga (and he has even admitted in public that the
President did not keep him abreast of peace process
developments). While his public role over the past year may
have been largely confined to ribbon cutting and tea
drinking, Rajapakse is nonetheless a savvy operator, with a
deft feel for the domestic political pulse and--a rarity in
this corrosive environment--surprisingly few enemies. With
the JVP ultimatum now before him, it will be difficult for
the ever-affable, noncommital Rajapakse to continue to dodge
these thorny issues.

ENTWISTLE