SRI LANKAN SUPREME COURT DECIDES PRESIDENTIAL

UNCLAS COLOMBO 001503

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR SA/INS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKAN SUPREME COURT DECIDES PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS IN 2005

REF: A. COLOMBO 1446


B. COLOMBO 1354


1. (U) On August 26 a five-judge bench of the Supreme Court
ruled that presidential elections must take place between
October 28 and November 22, 2005. The decision, rendered in
response to a petition filed by the opposition Jathika Hela
Urumaya (JHU) party, ends months of speculation whether polls
would be held this year or next (Reftels). Uncertainty about
the election date arose from conflicting interpretations of
when incumbent President Chandrika Kumaratunga's second term
in office ends. With the Court's determination that her term
ends in December 2005, actual scheduling of the election
within the specified time frame now falls to Election
Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake. He is expected to make
an announcement within the next few weeks.


2. (U) Despite the uncertainty surrounding the date,
political parties on both sides of the aisle have been in
full campaign mode since the government lost its largest
coalition partner, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, in June.
In July the opposition United National Party (UNP) announced
that its leader and two-time Prime Minister Ranil
Wickremesinghe would be its next presidential candidate and
Deputy UNP Leader Karu Jayasuriya its candidate for Prime
Minister. (Note: Although the current Parliament's term
does not end until 2010, there is widespread speculation that
the President may dissolve Parliament, forcing general
elections more or less concurrently with presidential polls.
End note.) On August 1 President Kumaratunga announced that
incumbent Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse would carry her
Sri Lankan Freedom Party's (SLFP) nomination for President,
while presidential sibling and recently appointed Foreign
Minister Anura Bandaranaike was given the nod for Prime
Minister.


3. (SBU) Comment: Even though the President and her SLFP
have publicly maintained over the past year that presidential
elections are not due until the end of 2006--and even though
Supreme Court Chief Justice Sarath Silva is widely assumed to
be in the President's pocket--the Court's decision comes as
little surprise to anyone. On August 24 PM Rajapakse told
Charge' that he expected the Court to decide on elections in
2005; later the same day SLFP MP and President's Counsel
Wijedasa Rajapakse, who first framed the argument that
presidential elections should take place in 2006, told poloff
the same. With the August 12 assassination of Foreign
Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar by suspected Liberation Tigers
of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) insurgents still fresh in voters'--and
candidates'--minds, questions about how and whether to
advance the peace process will likely dominate electoral
debates.
ENTWISTLE