MALDIVES: FORMER DETAINEE EXPECTS FREER, FAIRER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000149

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: FORMER DETAINEE EXPECTS FREER, FAIRER
ELECTIONS; MAINTAINS REFORM HOPES

REF: A. COLOMBO 107

B. 04 COLOMBO 1686

Classified By: AMB. JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD. REASON: 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) Summary: In a January 18 call on the Ambassador,
former SAARC Secretary General and detainee Ibrahim Zaki
expressed gratitude for U.S. support, crediting concern from
the international community for the Government's decision to
release him from detention and drop sedition charges against
him (Ref A). He said he believes that parliamentary
elections, scheduled for January 22, will be freer and fairer
than previous polls, primarily because of international
scrutiny of the process. He has told President Gayoom that
he will support the President's reform efforts "from
outside," and remains convinced of Gayoom's personal
commitment to strengthening democracy. The key challenge, he
indicated, is whether Gayoom will prevail against hard-liners
within his own family and Cabinet. Zaki's mental and
physical conditions seem much improved since his October
meeting with the Ambassador (Ref B),and the long-time
Government servant appears eager to mend his relations with
Gayoom, if not with the rest of his government, and to resume
his interrrupted political career. End summary.


2. (C) On January 18 Ibrahim Zaki, the former SAARC
Secretary General who was detained following the civil unrest

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August 12-13 and charged with sedition, called on the
Ambassador to express gratitude for his support, which Zaki
credited with helping secure his release and the dropping of
charges (Ref A). (Zaki, who was out of Maldives for the
first time since August, was in Colombo for medical
consultations.) The international community should continue
to engage with the Government of Republic of Maldives (GORM),
Zaki urged, suggesting that post-tsunami aid might be linked
to progress on democratic reform. The Ambassador said that
donors generally believed that humanitarian aid must be
provided on the basis of need, rather than on whether or not
we approve of GORM policy.


3. (C) On December 31--the same day that the GORM dropped
sedition charges against Zaki and three other former
detainees (Ref A)--President Gayoom had called Zaki to invite
him to join the government, he reported. Zaki said he turned
down the offer but agreed to support the President's reform
efforts "from outside." Having already paid the price of
being in detention, Zaki said he concluded that "it was best
to engage with (Gayoom)" and re-open communication channels
to urge progress on reform. He added that although he
remains convinced of Gayoom's personal commitment to reform,
hard-liners in the President's family and Cabinet were
counseling a different course. He and the President
basically agree on the need for reform, he commented; the
main difference is that Gayoom favors "a slow track" and he
"a fast track." Now that the Special Majlis (which was
constituted specifically to consider constitutional reforms)
has finished framing its bylaws, it should be ready to begin
substantive work by the end of January, he said.


4. (C) Zaki predicted that People's Majlis elections, now
scheduled to be held January 22, will be "65 percent free and
fair"--a higher percentage, in his estimation, than in the
past for several reasons. For the first time, the GORM is
allowing representatives of candidates to observe the voting
process, to travel with the ballot boxes collected on other
islands to the capital in Male and to be present at the
counting. In addition to the usual observers from SAARC
nations, an election monitoring team from the Commonwealth
Secretariat and a 25-member team of Maldivians sponsored by

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the Maldivian Human Rights Commission will also be deployed.
Finally, increased scrutiny from the international media, as
a result of GORM heavy-handedness in addressing the incidents
of August 12-13, will put added pressure on the GORM to
ensure greater transparency. Despite the logistical
challenges imposed by the December 26 natural disaster, the
GORM could not delay the elections, Zaki said, or it would
surpass the time limit set by the Constitution. He expects
Ilyas Ibrahim, the only former detainee to stand for election
to the People's Majlis, to win readily.


5. (C) Comment: Zaki's mental and physical conditions
appear understandably much improved from when the Ambassador
visited him during his detention on Dhoonidhoo Island in
October (Ref B). His decision to stay on the sidelines
during the upcoming elections--and his surprisingly
supportive comments about Gayoom--lend credence to the widely
held supposition that the GORM worked out a deal with some of
the detainees to drop charges in exchange for a more
restrained political demeanor. Before the tsunami struck on
December 26, the freeness/fairness of the People's Majlis
elections were expected to be an important test of Gayoom's
resolve to strengthen democracy. The logistical challenges
imposed by the greatest natural disaster in Maldivian history
can only complicate that test. In the aftermath of the twin
crises--the political upheaval in August and the tsunami in
December--the GORM will likely seek to portray the elections
as a first step in the return to normalcy In this context,
the efforts of international, regional and Maldivian
observers will play an important role in assessing the
transparency of these elections.
LUNSTEAD