MALDIVES: GOVERNMENT, OPPOSITION ACCUSE EACH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 001449

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: GOVERNMENT, OPPOSITION ACCUSE EACH
OTHER OF FOMENTING VIOLENCE

REF: COLOMBO 1420

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires James F. Entwistle. Reason: 1.4 (b,d
).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Although the streets of Male' were calm August 15
for the first night since August 12, at least 137 people
remain in detention as a result of the preceding nights'
unrest. ICRC is planning a visit to Maldives to meet the
detainees. In an August 15 meeting in Colombo, opposition
Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) representatives charged that
the Government's heavy-handed over-reaction to an initially
peaceful demonstration August 12 had "inflamed" the local
population, provoking street violence that carried over into
subsequent nights. The MDP fears the Government will use the
events of August 12-14 as a pretext to keep key MDP figures
in prolonged detention--just as happened the previous year.
Foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed, on the other hand, told the
Charge' on August 16 that the MDP was intent on fomenting
violence, adding that he expects more unrest in the month to
come. The tendency on the part of both the Government and
the MDP to hyperbolize the confrontation points to the
continued lack of political sophistication on both sides.
While the decision to allow political parties to register was
an encouraging step forward, the Government's all-too-obvious
discomfort in allowing them to function as
parties--especially if, like the MDP, they are in the
opposition--suggests that Maldives' democratic growing pains
will continue for some time to come. Despite the bumps in
the road, we believe the trend toward reform is generally in
the right direction and worthy of continued U.S. support.
End summary.

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MDP: GOVERNMENT PLOT TO DISCREDIT OPPOSITION
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2. (SBU) In an August 15 meeting with poloff in Colombo,
seven members of the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party
(MDP),including MDP Spokesman Mohamed Latheef, People's
Majlis MPs Moosa Manik and Mohamed Aslam, and Special Majlis
MP and former Attorney General Mohamed Munavvar, charged that
the Government of Republic of Maldives' (GORM) harsh
over-reaction to an initially peaceful protest August 12 had
"inflamed" ordinary Maldivians, fueling violent
demonstrations later that night and on the two succeeding
nights. According to these interlocutors, when police began
to haul away MDP Chairman Mohamed Nasheed and three other MDP
activists from a sit-down protest in the Maldivian capital of
Male' August 12 (Reftel),the spectacle quickly drew a crowd
of interested onlookers. When security forces began to try
to disperse the crowd with tear gas, rubber bullets and water
cannon, a larger confrontation erupted, with some in the
crowd throwing bricks and rocks. (Note: In some cases, more
than bricks and stones were thrown. Reliable sources in two
multilateral organizations confirm having seen tennis balls
set on fire, and in one instance, an apparent Molotov
cocktail being lobbed about.)


3. (SBU) MDP MPs' requests to meet with the Speaker of the
Majlis and the Minister of Defense to defuse tensions were
refused, they reported, and the situaiton rapidly escalated.
The violent demonstrations of the succeeding two nights were
largely provoked by the security forces' heavy-handed
attempts at crowd control, the MDP representatives asserted.
GORM allegations that the MDP had orchestrated the violence
are false, they said, contending instead that the
demonstrations were spontaneous reflections of the popular
desire for reform and dissatisfaction with the status quo.
In addition, some hinted darkly, the GORM was hiring drug
addicts and goons to foment violence and then blame it on the
MDP.


4. (C) Even though there had been no demonstrations the
night of August 15, the MDP delegation said, the GORM was
continuing to arrest party members and
sympathizers--including those who had not been present on the
streets during the protests. (In a separate telephone
conversation from Male', MDP MP Ibrahim Ismail told poloff
that a gang of thugs had stormed the home of another MDP MP
on Male' and beaten him.) MDP MP Mohamed Munavvar, who spent
more than three months in detention after the previous year's
unrest, and Spokesman Mohamed Latheef speculated that the
GORM might be collecting "evidence" to justify keeping key
MDP figures in extended detention in an effort to discredit
the party. With parties now able to register legally, the
MDP had been pressing Gayoom to let the parties test the
popular will by holding early elections, Latheef continued,
which Gayoom is unwilling to do. Noting that some pro-GORM
MPs had recently tabled a motion in the People's Majlis to
reopen sedition investigations against MDP figures detained
in last year's unrest, Latheef said that President Maumoon
Abdul Gayoom feared the MDP's growing popularity and knew his
own newly formed party would not prevail in free and fair
elections against the MDP. The international community
should put pressure on Gayoom to commmit to "a time-bound
schedule" to implement the reforms he has pledged to
undertake (separation of powers, independence of the
judiciary, etc.),as well as early elections. If Gayoom
refuses, "we will take to the streets," Latheef pledged. The
discussion then quickly degenerated into a heated argument
between Latheef and Munavvar about whether or not MDP
partisans would/should indeed take to the streets; poloff
left the meeting before the resolution of this internal (and,
for the MDP, all-too-typical) debate.

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GORM: MDP PLOT TO OVERTHROW THE GOVERNMENT
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5. (C) In an August 16 meeting with Charge' in Colombo,
newly appointed Foreign Minister Dr. Ahmed Shaheed said that
the GORM response had been necessary to maintain law and
order. Public protests are not allowed under Maldivian law,
but police had not acted to remove Nasheed and others on
August 12 until they began shouting, "Kill Gayoom, " Shaheed
asserted. (Note: This is the first time we have heard any
suggestion, including from Government sources, that Nasheed
was advocating violence. In fact, Government Spokesman
Mohamed Shareef had told us that Nasheed's protest, while
illegal, was nonetheless peaceful, and initial Government
explanations of his detention said that he had been placed in
protective custody.) The GORM had received previous
indications that the MDP was planning some kind of
demonstration to mark the one-year anniversary of the August
12-14 unrest in 2004; frankly, Shaheed observed, knowing MDP
frustration at the slow pace of promised reforms, he had been
expecting something worse. He added that he expects more
unrest in the month to come. The Foreign Minister rejected
MDP claims that the police and National Security Service
(NSS) had over-reacted; they had to resort to tear gas and
rubber bullets to quell the street violence the MDP (which
he, in turn, accused of employing drug addicts and thugs) was
fomenting. He added that 137 people remain in detention, but
emphasized that the seven-day limit during which they may be
held without charge will be followed strictly, and claimed
that many were being released already.


6. (C) Shaheed said that there had apparently been some
internal debate within the MDP in the days leading up to
August 12 about whether to mark the one-year anniversary with
some kind of protest, with Nasheed and others arguing for a
public display and some MPs pleading for a less
confrontational route. (Note: Given what we have seen of
MDP in Colombo, we are not surprised to hear of this apparent
lack of MDP consensus.) The GORM was trying to reach out to
some of these "cooler heads" within the opposition party,
Shaheed indicated. He said he believed the MDP felt
compelled to resort to violent protests because it feared
Gayoom would succeed in "rebranding" himself as a democrat,
now that Constitutional reforms are impending. (Comment:
The reforms are not impending that fast. The People's
Majlis, which was specifically constituted in June 2004 to
consider constitutional reforms, remains mired a year later
in seemingly endless discussions of rules of procedure and
has yet to debate a single proposed change. Shaheed, perhaps
optimistically, nonetheless said he expects a new
Constitution will be ready one year from now. End comment.)
Having cut many of his long-time cronies from his Cabinet in
the July 14 reshuffle, Gayoom is more vulnerable than ever,
Shaheed said, facing pressure from disgruntled former
Ministers on the one hand and MDP malcontents on the other.
When asked about the move to reopen old sedition cases
against MDP stalwarts, Shaheed said the motion was tabled by
a Majlis "back-bencher" and did not have GORM support.


7. (C) Charge' told Shaheed that the U.S. had been
encouraged by some recent reforms, including the registration
of parties, adding that the GORM seems generally headed down
the right path toward greater democracy and respect for human
rights, an effort the U.S. supports. Nonetheless, while
acknowledging the importance of maintaining law and order,
Charge' emphasized that the GORM must ensure that the police
response is appropriate and fully respectful of human rights
and that any detentions be legitimate and defensible.
Shaheed said these were issues that he and the Attorney
General in particular took very seriously.

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VIEW FROM THE MULTILATERALS
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8. (C) On August 17 poloff met in Colombo with ICRC Deputy
Head of Regional Delegation Maarten Merkelbach, who is
traveling to Maldives to meet with detainees. (Note: This
is only ICRC's second visit to Maldives. The first occurred
in April when, according to Merkelbach, there were no
"clients" in detention. End note.) Merkelbach said he had
asked the Home Ministry for permission to visit when he first
heard of the detentions on August 13; the Home Ministry
responded affirmatively "within a matter of hours." He
characterized his GORM interlocutors during his April visit
as "very positive, very cooperative" and refreshingly "frank"
in admitting missteps in the past. The police, which were
only separated from the NSS a year ago, were not given
appropriate civil affairs/human rights training to help them
make the change to their new role as a civilian force,
Merkelbach noted. Many of those he met with, including
personnel in the Attorney General's Office and the police,
freely acknowledged deficiencies in current operations and
pleaded for ICRC asssistance in bringing such practices in
line with international standards. With more than 100 people
now in detention as a result of the August 12-14 unrest, he
observed, "it will be interesting to see how the system
functions under pressure."


9. (C) On August 17 poloff spoke by telephone with Minh
Pham, the former UNDP Resident Representative in Maldives.
Although he is no longer in Maldives, Pham said he remains in
regular communication with contacts there. From what he has
heard of how events transpired August 12-14--and from what he
knows from long-term contact with many of the key players--he
said he believes that GORM and opposition forces are at an
impasse. The lack of political maturity on both sides makes
compromise difficult, he observed. Absent such compromise,
however, Maldives is "heading for a clash," he predicted. To
avert that prospect, he suggested the international community
take a public stand that a) appeals for calm and reason on
both sides; and b) calls for the GORM to adopt "a clear
timetable," with identifiable benchmarks, on reform. "People
have heard enough (about reform); now they want to see
something" concrete in the form of separation of powers,
independence of the judiciary and other measures Gayoom has
been saying he will undertake for the past year. Noting the
strong mutual mistrust in which Gayoom and the MDP hold one
another, he suggested that international mediation could be
the best way forward.


10. (C) In a separate telephone conversation from Male' on
August 17, Acting UNDP ResRep Kari Blenheim told poloff that
average Maldivians seemed "shocked and disturbed" by the
unaccustomed violence of this past week, adding that the
general consensus seemed to be that the police and NSS "were
heavy-handed in some instances." Although the streets were
calm the nights of August 15 and 16, "underlying tensions"
persist. She reiterated other reports of internal
dissension/indecisiveness within the MDP; some are militating
for instantaneous reform while others, noting that parties
were only legalized in June, are arguing for greater
patience. The country is going through a period of rapid
change, Blenheim commented, much of it positive. Besides the
legalization of political parties, she cited the July 14
Cabinet reshuffle, which introduced younger, more innovative
technocrats into that heretofore ossified group, as
especially promising. For example, she said the new Atolls
Development Minister is "vocal" about the need for better
governance, has suggested that island chiefs should be
elected instead of appointed, and wants to promote civic
education in the local population. Echoing some of the views
of her colleague Minh Pham, Blenheim suggested that to help
ensure that change is peaceful and to assuage opposition
suspicions, the GORM should adopt a better defined process
leading up to elections so that people know there is "some
kind of plan" for broader democracy to take root.

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COMMENT
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11. (C) The pace of political reform in Maldives may not
seem especially speedy to an outsider, but for a country that
has had the same President (with almost the same Cabinet) for
over 25 years and no political parties ever, it is
significant and worthy of continued U.S. support. There are
bound to be growing pains along the way, but these cramps and
kinks are especially difficult to work out in an atmosphere
of such intense and personalized mutual suspicion. The
accusations and counter-accusations we have heard--invariably
depicted in almost apocalyptic terms--from both sides over
the past few days demonstrate how politically unsophisticated
both sides remain--and how far Maldives must still travel on
the road to a strong multiparty democracy. A more clearly
delineated timeframe for key reforms, such as an independent
judiciary, might be an important step Gayoom could take
toward building the confidence needed for the MDP and GORM to
make that trip together. While the GORM's ready invitation
to the ICRC is heartening, we will be watching closely to see
whether detainees are kept without charge for beyond the
seven-day limit.
ENTWISTLE