Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05COLOMBO1216
2005-07-13 11:09:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Colombo
Cable title:  

CALLS FOR ELECTIONS AS THE UNP MARCHES THROUGH

Tags:  PGOV PTER PHUM CE 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001216 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2015
TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM CE
SUBJECT: CALLS FOR ELECTIONS AS THE UNP MARCHES THROUGH
COLOMBO WHILE SUPREME COURT WRESTLES WITH P-TOMS

REF: A. COLOMBO 1160


B. COLOMBO 1128

Classified By: Amb. J. Lunstead for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

----------------
SUMMARY
----------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001216

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2015
TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM CE
SUBJECT: CALLS FOR ELECTIONS AS THE UNP MARCHES THROUGH
COLOMBO WHILE SUPREME COURT WRESTLES WITH P-TOMS

REF: A. COLOMBO 1160


B. COLOMBO 1128

Classified By: Amb. J. Lunstead for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (U) As the opposition United National Party (UNP)
concluded its 10-day Janbala Meheyuma (People's Power March)
to Colombo on July 12, the party focused on pressuring the
Commissioner of Elections Dayananda Dissanayake to call for
Presidential elections this year (Ref A). Continued silence
from Dissanayake has led to across-the-board speculation and
confusion as to when a Presidential election is legally
mandated. Meanwhile, a three-member bench of the Supreme
Court has indicated it will issue its decision on the
legality of the Post-Tsunami Operating Mechanical Structure
(P-TOMS) on Friday, July 15 in response to a fundamental
rights case filed by the Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna
(JVP) party, a decision that is bound to be controversial
regardless of its content. END SUMMARY.

--------------
MARCH ON COLOMBO
--------------


2. (U) An estimated one to two hundred thousand persons
joined the peaceful UNP march as it culminated in Colombo on
July 12 (Ref A) amidst renewed calls to hold Presidential
elections this year. Calling for polls in late 2005,
participants in the UNP March also pointed to the soaring
cost of living expenses and numerous unfulfilled campaign
promises of the current coalition government as other reasons
for holding elections this year. (Comment: Surprisingly, the
pending P-TOMS issue was not a significant component of the
march. End Comment.)

--------------
2005 OR 2006, ONLY
TIME WILL TELL
--------------


3. (U) The UNP march appeared to be successful, because it
kept the spotlight directly on the issue of when the next
elections can or must be held. The UNP claims that elections
must be held in late 2005. Legal opinion seems divided.
(Comment: Former President J.R. Jayawardene apparently set a
precedent, when, after calling for and winning early
elections in December 1982, he completed his second term in
December 1988, six years from the date the early elections

were held. End Comment.) Shiral Lakthilaka, Senior Advisor
at the Berghof Foundation for Conflict Studies told poloff
that the President's second term technically began on
February 4, 2000, the inauguration date immediately following
the December 1999 elections. As such, Lakthilaka noted,
elections must be held in 2005, in order to inaugurate a new
president by February 4, 2006. The President's supporters and
other constitutional scholars on the other hand, hold that
President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga's second term
did not start until November 2000, when her first term was
initially due to end, thereby making November 2006 the
appropriate date for the upcoming polls.



4. (C) Former Minister of Justice and Constitutional
Affairs and current UNP member of Parliament G.L. Peiris, in
a conversation with the Ambassador, admitted for the first
time that the Constitution was indeed vague about when
elections should be held. Bar Council President Desmond
Fernando--a UNP supporter--told the Ambassador he believes
the President's term runs until the end of 2006. If the
Election Commissioner decides the election must be held this
year, a decision must be issued soon, since he is required to
call for polls 30 days prior to holding elections, and
according to article 31(4) of the constitution, Presidential
elections cannot occur less than one month and not more than
two months before the expiration of the term. Therefore, if
elections are to be held this year, Dissanayake must make a
statement to that effect between September 21 and October 21
of this year.

--------------
JVP VS. P-TOMS
--------------


5. (U) Meanwhile on July 12, a three-member bench of the
Supreme Court began hearing the fundamental rights case filed
by the JVP on the legality of the P-TOMS agreement (Ref B).
According to press reports, the JVP is seeking an injunction
on the implementation of P-TOMS with regards to regional
committees and regional funds governed by the committees, but
not/not against the national committee or district
committees. Chief Justice Sarath N. Silva has said the
Supreme Court will announce on Friday, July 15, whether it
will grant interim relief to the petitioners, which would
effectively stall the P-TOMS until a final decision is
rendered.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) In a May 2005 conversation with pol FSN,
Dissanayake stated that he would not violate the Constitution
and that he would call for elections "at the proper time."
When that proper time is, however, remains unclear.
Observers noting the tenor of the Court arguments so far have
told us they believe the Court may grant interim relief.
This would not only stall P-TOMS and create a gap where a
mechanism needs to be in place to deliver tsunami relief to
areas not under government control, but will also make an
already unstable political situation even more so. End
Comment.
LUNSTEAD