SRI LANKA: JVP JUMPS SHIP; PRESIDENT PADDLING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001073

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2015
TAGS: PGOV PTER CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: JVP JUMPS SHIP; PRESIDENT PADDLING
FURIOUSLY

REF: COLOMBO 1065

Classified By: AMB. JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD. REASON: 1.4 (B,D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Summary: As threatened, on June 16 coalition
partner Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) left the United
People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) government after President
Chandrika Kumaratunga refused to meet its demand to abandon
the so-called "joint mechanism" on tsunami aid with the
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The JVP's defection
leaves the President with the unpleasant prospect of heading
a minority government. Possible next steps include seeking
support from the main opposition party, proroguing Parliament
when it reconvenes on June 22, or presenting the mechanism to
Parliament. The JVP, meanwhile, has invited all patriotic
Sri Lankans to form a new alliance. It appears that the
party, known for its strategic thinking and long-term
planning, may have miscalculated for once. End summary.

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JVP PULLS PLUG ON UPFA PARTNERSHIP
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2. (U) As threatened, at 8:00 a.m. local time on June 16 the
Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) left the United People's
Freedom Alliance (UPFA) government after President Chandrika
Kumaratunga did not meet the party's June 15 deadline to
desist from pursuing a "joint mechanism" on tsunami aid with
the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Four JVP
Cabinet Ministers formally resigned their portfolios (Culture
and Heritage; Agriculture and Irrigation; Small Industries;
and Fisheries) later in the morning. The JVP defection costs
Kumaratunga's government 39 seats in Parliament (leaving her
as the head of a minority government),as well as control of
all seven Provincial Councils. In a letter to JVP General
Secretary Tilvin Silva on June 15 (the contents of which were

SIPDIS
read out over television that evening),the President urged
the party not to abandon the alliance because of
misunderstandings over the joint mechanism, the text of which
the JVP had never even seen.

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PATRIOTS ONLY, PLEASE
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3. (U) At a press conference the morning of June 16, the JVP
leadership claimed that it had been forced to leave the
alliance because the proposed joint mechanism threatened Sri
Lanka's national sovereignty. Party leaders pledged to form
a new alliance and invited patriots nationwide--including any
disaffected sons of the soil from Kumaratunga's Sri Lanka
Freedom Party (SLFP) or the mainstream opposition United
National Party (UNP) to join. JVP Leader Somawansa
Amarasinghe expressed regret for not having been able to
fulfill all of the promises the party made during the last
election, but pledged to do so when the JVP regains power at
an unspecified time in the future. (Note: None of the five
JVP speakers--Amarasinghe, Silva, Propaganda Secretary Wimal
Weerawansa, and former Ministers Anura Dissanayake and Lal
Kantha--made any reference to impending elections or plans to
bring down the government. End note.)

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WHEN PARLIAMENT RECONVENES:
WHETHER TO PROROGUE OR POLITICK?
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4. (C) With no immediate JVP move apparent to topple the
government, the next crucial date for the President will
occur when Parliament reconvenes on June 22. As noted
reftel, observers speculate that Kumaratunga may choose to
prorogue Parliament, thereby gaining up to two months of
breathing space, or may attempt to bring the joint mechanism
before Parliament for a vote. The Attorney General told us
on June 16 that he is not entirely sure how that might be
done--he is still "studying it"--but suggested that the
government might bring the proposed agreement as a motion
before Parliament. The motion could then be carried by a
simple majority, which, given the pledges of support from the
UNP and the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) for the joint
mechanism, the government should have sufficient votes to
secure. On the other hand, if the government pursues this
course of action, events are unlikely to transpire in such a
simple, straightforward fashion. For example, before a vote
takes place, the motion could be challenged before the
Supreme Court, a step the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) has
already vowed to undertake if the joint mechanism comes
before Parliament.

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FAST FINISHED
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5. (SBU) Acting on a court order, police removed fasting
monk Ven. Dambara Amila Thero from the railway station in
downtown Colombo late June 15 (Reftel),despite vociferous
objections from his surrounding supporters, and took him to
the hospital. The streets of Colombo were quiet on June 16,
although police sources expressed concern about reports that
the JVP-aligned student union was attempting to mobilize
students from all 13 universities for an anti-mechanism
protest in the capital on June 17.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) No one--including the JVP--wants elections now, and
Kumaratunga faces the unattractive prospect of running a
minority government for the immediate future. Running a
minority government, however, may be only marginally more
difficult than running a government with a contentious
coalition partner that opposed nearly every initiative she
proposed. Kumaratunga is often criticized (usually with good
grounds) for short-term, ad hoc thinking, impulsiveness and
inattention to detail. This proclivity usually puts her at a
disadvantage with adversaries like the LTTE and JVP, both
masters of long-term, strategic planning. This time,
however, it looks like the JVP may have miscalculated,
assuming Kumaratunga's cave-ins to JVP pressure on a number
of previous showdowns (e.g., restructuring of the electricity
utility, privatization of university education) meant that
she would follow suit on this issue as well. But the JVP can
be expected to try to turn this miscalculation to advantage,
using its spare time--and enhanced position as
ultra-nationalists--to build up its ever-expanding base.
LUNSTEAD