SRI LANKA: MONKS, SOME MUSLIMS OPPOSE JOINT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001044

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR BELL
USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2015
TAGS: PGOV PTER CE LTTE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: MONKS, SOME MUSLIMS OPPOSE JOINT
MECHANISM; CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS PERSIST

REF: A. COLOMBO 1039

B. COLOMBO 1033

C. USDAO COLOMBO IIR 6 816 0141 05 (NOTAL)

D. COLOMBO 0812

Classified By: DCM JAMES F. ENTWISTLE. REASON: 1.4 (B,D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The controversy surrounding the proposed "joint
mechanism" to coordinate tsunami aid with the Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) has deepened following unanimous
public opposition from the chief prelates of all four
Buddhist chapters. At a June 10 press conference, Government
alliance partner Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) announced it
would give President Chandrika Kumaratunga until midnight
June 15 to withdraw support for the mechanism or face a JVP
pull-out from her government. The President met with
pro-Government Muslim MPs on June 9 in a bid for their
support, but the opposition Sri Lanka Muslim Congress is
withholding its endorsement. Amid rumors of disaffection
within her own Sri Lanka Freedom Party, no other parties,
with the exception of the pro-LTTE Tamil National Alliance
and the former paramilitary Eelam People's Democratic Party,
have come out in public support of the mechanism. The
prelates' monolithic opposition--and the moral and religious
weight their position carries in this predominantly Buddhist
country--will make it increasingly difficult for the
President to move ahead with the agreement. Violence
continues in the east. Police have taken in two members of
an anti-LTTE organization for questioning in connection with
the April 28 killing of pro-LTTE journalist Dharmaretnam
Sivaram. End summary.

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ANTI-MECHANISM MOVES
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2. (U) On June 9 the chief prelates of the four Buddhist
chapters in Sri Lanka issued a joint public statement against
the proposed "joint mechanism" on tsunami aid with the
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Citing the rapidly
deteriorating condition of the hunger-striking Ven. Omalpe
Sobitha Thero, a Buddhist monk and Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU)
MP (Ref B),the four head monks (or "Mahanayakes") urged
President Chandrika Kumaratunga to issue a definitive
statement pledging not to sign the mechanism. Absent such a
statement, the Mahanayakes threatened her with an "edict"
calling the entire Buddhist Sangha and laity together in a
mass convocation against the mechanism.


3. (U) On June 10 the Patriotic National Movement, a front
for the Sinhalese nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna
(JVP),organized an anti-mechanism march in Colombo; the JVP
is scheduled for a June 14 rally with the same theme. At a
June 10 press conference, JVP Leader Somawansa Amarasinghe
announced that his party would leave the government on June
16 if the President had not publicly withdrawn support for
the mechanism by midnight June 15. Echoing earlier
complaints (Ref B),the JVP leader criticized the President
for keeping the mechanism text hidden from everyone except a
few members of her coterie. Amarasinghe also called on the
opposition United National Party (UNP) to make its position
on the mechanism public.

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MUSLIMS SPLIT
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4. (C) On June 9 President Kumaratunga met with Muslim MPs
who support the government to enlist their support for the
joint mechanism. According to sources in the Presidential
Secretariat, the Muslim MPs indicated possible support for

SIPDIS
the mechanism subject to some modifications--e.g., that a
Muslim representative, in addition to the Government and
LTTE, also sign the agreement and that Muslims be given
representation equal to that of the Tigers in regional-level
committees. The President reportedly promised to have a
response to that request by June 17, after consulting the
Norwegians. (Note: See Ref A on Ambassador's June 9 meeting
with the President.) The President has not briefed the
opposition Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) on the joint
mechanism and has not approached SLMC Leader Rauff Hakeem for
support, according to Shafeek Rajabdeen, Colombo District
Organizer for the SLMC. Instead, the President "is trying to
ignore us," he complained, and "Hakeem has been totally
sidelined in the discussions." Since Muslims were the
population most heavily affected by the tsunami in the east,
any discussion of a joint mechanism on tsunami aid ought to
include them, Rajabdeen asserted. While the mechanism might
be a good idea in principle, Rajabdeen concluded, the SLMC
cannot support it at this time because the party leadership
does not know what is in the document. (Note: Three of the
seven SLMC MPs who won seats in the 2004 election have
crossed the aisle to join the government.)


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OUTSIDERS BETTING AGAINST PRESIDENT SIGNING
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5. (C) On June 9 UNP MP Navin Dissanayake told poloff that
he doubts Kumaratunga will actually sign the controversial
agreement, given the staunch opposition voiced by the
Mahanayakes and purported dissension within the ranks of her
own Sri Lanka Freedom Party (Ref B). Instead, he theorized,
she will likely stand down and try to put the best face on
her reversal by claiming she remains committed to the
principle of a joint mechanism but was prevented by JVP
opposition from realizing these principles. Father A.I.
Bernard, a Catholic priest in Jaffna who maintains contact
with the LTTE, said that the prevailing view up north is
skeptical that the President will sign. Jaffna spectators
believe the "President is losing her grip" on the government,
thanks in large part to JVP agitation--agitation that the JVP
can be expected to continue "until they come to the top."
Noting press reports that the President might be considering
some modifications to the text of the agreement, Fr. Bernard
said he doubted the LTTE would accept such tinkering at this
late date. Tamils in the north were "losing trust" and felt
there was "no point in hoping anymore" for an improvement in
their situation for three reasons: the lack of leadership in
the south; the lack of unity in the south; and ethnically
divisive pronouncements by the JVP and the JHU, he asserted.
"Attitudes are hardening" everywhere, he concluded glumly,
adding that the country seemed to be heading toward a
resumption of hostilities.

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MORE VIOLENCE; TWO ARRESTS
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6. (SBU) On June 8 police apprehended two members of the
anti-LTTE People's Liberation Organization of Tamil Eelam
(PLOTE) for questioning in the April 28 killing of pro-LTTE
journalist Dharmaretnam Sivaram (Ref D). Public Security
Secretary Tilak Ranaviraja confirmed the arrests to us on

SIPDIS
June 9. (Note: Sivaram was originally a member of the
anti-LTTE paramilitary PLOTE. Under the Ceasefire Agreement,
non-LTTE Tamil paramilitaries were supposed to have been
disarmed. PLOTE's numbers--and thus its activities--have
diminished over the past 10 years. End note.)


7. (SBU) While there has been a visible increase in Sri
Lanka Army personnel on Colombo streets over the past few
days, violence persists in the east. On June 8 two LTTE
cadres were killed in a mine explosion in Ampara District two
km from a Sri Lanka Army checkpoint. The LTTE's
Batticaloa-Ampara political wing blamed the attack on the
Special Task Force (STF) and unidentified "paramilitary
cadres" allegedly working with the STF and lodged a complaint
with the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission. The STF denied the
allegation the following day, claiming instead the two LTTE
cadres had been shot by a disgruntled former comrade-in-arms.
Government forces and the LTTE also traded accusations over
the June 9 killing of a civilian bystander in Batticaloa when
shots were fired at an anti-LTTE Eelam People's Democratic
Party (EPDP) member and his military escort. The Defense
Ministry reported that suspected LTTE gunmen killed the
civilian after they opened fire on the EPDP entourage, also
wounding one EPDP member and an Army corporal escorting him,
while the LTTE claimed the 45-year-old trishaw driver was
killed when the Sri Lanka Army returned fire.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) If the President faced an uphill struggle before, the
Mahanayakes' unanimous disapproval of the mechanism--and the
threat of a Buddhist edict to quash it--now makes the battle
seem almost unwinnable. The Mahanayakes' intervention has
moved the issue out of the purely political realm, giving it
moral and religious implications as well. With only the
pro-LTTE Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and the dubious
paramilitary-cum-party EPDP expressing open support for the
mechanism so far (and, with the Mahanayakes' thumbs-down, the
tacit disapproval of over 70 percent of the population),it
is becoming increasingly difficult for the President to claim
she has a mandate to move forward on the mechanism.
LUNSTEAD