PRESIDENT TELLS AMBASSADOR SHE IS UNDER PRESSURE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001039

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2015
TAGS: PREL EAID PTER CE LTTE
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT TELLS AMBASSADOR SHE IS UNDER PRESSURE,
INTENDS TO GO AHEAD WITH JOINT MECHANISM -- BUT NOT SURE
WHEN


Classified By: AMBASSADOR JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD FOR REASON 1.4 (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Kumaratunga told
Ambassador she intends to sign the Joint
Mechanism, she hopes by end of the month. She
believes the JVP will not leave the Government if
she signs. She asked for strong Co-Chair support
for the Joint Mechanism. She will discuss the
Joint Mechanism with Opposition Leader
Wickremesinghe shortly. She appeared to admit
Government forces may be involved in the recent
Cease Fire violations. END SUMMARY


2. (C) Ambassador called on President Chandrika
Kumaratunga evening of June 9 in preparation for
his departure for Washington to attend Co-Chairs
meeting. Kumaratunga bustled in and dismissed MFA
notetaker--"I want to speak to the Ambassador one-
on-one." Apologizing for being late, she said
that she was under a lot of strain. "I have to
make hard decisions which impinge on the future of
the government and the country." She then asked
Ambassador about the upcoming Co-Chairs meeting.


3. (C) Ambassador said that the meeting was
important for several reasons:

--It would be the first Co-Chairs meeting since
the second Bush Administration began its term, and
therefore would introduce some new players.

--The debate about the Joint Mechanism for tsunami
reconstruction in the North and East was reaching
a crucial point.

--The ceasefire seemed to be under increasing
pressure, with killings taking place by both
sides.

Ambassador noted this meeting would take place
almost exactly two years after the original Tokyo
meeting where Co-Chair mechanism had originated.
Co-Chairs had begun on the premise that it was a
vehicle by which the international community could
support the Sri Lankan peace process. If the
peace process could not progress due to internal
factors in Sri Lanka, then Co-Chairs would have to
consider and re-assess just what their role should
be. If there were no progress, then international
attention would naturally move to other areas and
problems. Specifically, if the GSL and the LTTE
could not agree on the Joint Mechanism--an
administrative measure to deal with reconstruction
needs--then the international community would have
to wonder how they could make progress on much
more complicated and politically difficult issues
in the peace process. Ambassador concluded that
the purpose of the Co-Chairs was to assist in the
peace process, working as a partner. What did the
President think would be a useful contribution
from the Co-Chairs?


4. (C) Kumaratunga responded by saying that she
was committed to the Joint Mechanism and would
have it signed--"certainly by the end of the
month." The JVP, she said, was not only agitating
against the mechanism, but was also canvassing
members of her own SLFP party. The JVP was saying
that at the recent Development Forum the donors
had promised their money anyway whether or not
there was a Joint Mechanism, so why was it needed?
Only the President wanted it. Ambassador said
that donors had made clear that their tsunami
relief was not conditional, but that they believed
the Joint Mechanism would both make tsunami
reconstruction more effective and provide a boost
to the peace process. In addition, smaller donor
countries wanted to channel their assistance
through the World Bank Trust Fund that would be
set up in conjunction with the Joint Mechanism.
Kumaratunga said it would be immensely helpful to
her if the Co-Chairs made it clear that the Joint
Mechanism was important both for reconstruction
implementation and as a confidence building
measure for the peace process.


5. (C) Ambassador asked if she thought the JVP
would leave the government is she signed the Joint
Mechanism. Kumaratunga said she was 90 percent
sure they would not leave. The JVP values its
Ministerial portfolios too much, she said. She
then said that Opposition Leader and UNP head
Ranil Wickremesinghe had asked to come over and
talk to her about the Joint Mechanism and she
would see him the next day. Ambassador said that
he had spoken to Wickremesinghe two days before
and had impressed upon him also that if the Joint
Mechanism failed, the attention of the
international community might move elsewhere.
Kumaratunga went on that if the Government could
not sign and implement the Joint Mechanism, then
"it can't do anything." The Tamils, she continued,
would be completely disillusioned and would be
justified in returning to war.


6. (C) Ambassador shifted discussion to the Cease
Fire Agreement, which he said appeared to be
coming under increasing stress as both sides
seemed to be committing violent acts, although the
murky situation made it hard to tell who was doing
what. Kumaratunga responded: "It's hard for me to
know also." It was possible, she said that "some
low-level people" in the police or the military
were supporting the Karuna faction. She also said
that police had just arrested two members of the
anti-LTTE Tamil group PLOTE for the murder of the
journalist Sivaram, implying that this showed the
Government was not involved. Ambassador stressed
that there were other killings happening, that
there was a need to find a way to bring the level
of violence down, and said Co-Chairs would need to
mention this.


7. (C) Kumaratunga said that the Tigers have given
a lot in agreeing to the Joint Mechanism, in
effect admitting the sovereignty of the GSL and,
for the first time, conceding that Muslims as a
group had a right to representation. She had just
finished discussing the Joint Mechanism with 9
Muslim MP's. They wanted two changes in the Joint
Mechanism. She had asked them which change was
most important and had promised to raise the issue
with Norwegian Ambassador Brattskar to see if he
could take it up with the LTTE. Kumaratunga ended
by reaffirming that she still intended to sign the
Joint Mechanism, "certainly within a few weeks."


8. (C) Comment: Kumaratunga's resolve on the Joint
Mechanism is apparently as strong as ever, but she
faces an uphill battle (See septel on other Joint
Mechanism developments.) She believes the JVP
will not leave the Government if she signs; all
facts point the other way. Her comment that she
hopes to sign "by the end of the month" or "in a
few weeks" is discouraging, as this date seems to
keep fading into the distance. It seems to us--
and to many other observers here--that the longer
she waits the more difficult the task will become.
Any attempt to reopen the text for negotiation, as
she seems to have suggested to the Muslims, will
also cause problems.
LUNSTEAD