KERALA'S CONGRESS PARTY SPLITS: A BOOST TO THE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CHENNAI 000875

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: KERALA'S CONGRESS PARTY SPLITS: A BOOST TO THE
LEFT

REF: 04 Chennai 01008


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Kerala's ruling Congress party split
on May 1, with octogenaran party veteran K.
Karunakaran announcing that is son, Muraleedharan,
would be the President ofthe newly formed National
Congress (Indira). Alhough only about seven of the 60
Congress party MAs in Kerala seem to support the new
party, Congess insiders inform Post that the rebels
may tak away more than 15% of the party workers and
votrs. The split, which is a culmination of decades-
old factionalism, will not immediately affect the
stability of the Congress-led state government. It
does, however, increase the chances of succes of the
opposition Communist-led Left DemocraticFront in the
2006 state assembly elections and i the state's
Panchayat elections slated for Septeber 2005. END
SUMMARY

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VETERAN'S REVOLT BOOSTS LEFISTS' PROSPECTS
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2. (SBU) The May 1 split in Kerala'sCongress party
made banner headlines in South Inda's newspapers for
two reasons. One, the statur of the rebel leader, K.
Karunakaran, who announed the formation of the new
party, the National ongress (Indira),and two, the
advantage the splt is likely to give to the Opposition
Communist-ld coalition. Four-time Chief Minister of
Keralaand once Union Minister in New Delhi,
Karunakara had been a member of the Congress party for
sevn decades and in the party leadership for over hal
a century. Local Congressmen credit him with
ebuilding the state Congress party from the wreckae
caused by the explosive growth of the Communis party
in the Sixties. His splitfrom the party is now likely
to boost the prospects of the leftist parties he has
opposed all his life.

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BLOOD THICKER: FATHER AND SON TO SINK OR SWIM TOGETHER
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3. (SBU) Senior Congress leaders of Kerala told Post
that the 87-year-old veteran party man would not have
left the party but for the pressure from his son,
Muraleedharan, who was recently sacked from the party
for dissident activity. Party factionalism is not new
in Kerala. Since the Seventies, Karunakaran and his
bete noire, former Chief Minister A.K. Antony, had led
bickering party groups and until 1995, Karunakaran had
the upper hand. When he started pushing his son
Muraleedharan and daughter Padmaja in party hierarchy,
however, he quickly began losing grip over his
lieutenants. Antony, who replaced Karunakaran in party
leadership in 1995, continued to face Karunakaran's
family's dissidence but endured it stoically. In 2004,
the deeply divided party lost all seats in the Lok
Sabha elections, forcing Chief Minister Antony to quit
office, giving way to Oommen Chandy (Reftel). Chandy,
a hardliner on enforcing discipline, got the party high
command to dismiss former State Party President and
Karunakaran's son Muraleedharan from the primary
membership of the party, which has now led to the
split.

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CONGRESS INSIDERS FEAR 15% EROSION IN SUPPORT BASE
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4. (SBU) Chief Minister Chandy's right hand man and
party legislator M.M. Hassan (protect) told Post that
about 15% of the party's lower rung workers might join
the new party. "Over the short term, this can cause
setbacks," Hassan said. Dr. Kuttappan (protect),
another Congress leader, said that Karunakaran's
departure could defeat the party in the 2006 elections
because in most assembly constituencies, the margins of
victory are traditionally narrow. Of the state's 60
Members of the Legislative Assembly, Karunakaran's
party appears to have the support of only about 7.
The dissidents do not have the numerical strength in
the state assembly to vote down the government in the
Assembly. The MLAs did not participate in the
dissident rally to avoid disqualification from Assembly
membership.

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HIGH COMMAND TOES CHANDY'S LINE, ALBEIT CAUTIOUSLY
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5. (SBU) Kerala Minister for Parliamentary Affairs
Radhakrishnan (protect) informed Post that the party
high command was deciding to toe Chief Minister Oommen
Chandy's line in dealing with Karunakaran's faction.
The high command refused to intervene decisively to
stop the formation of the new party. Seeking to avoid
an outpouring of sympathy for the old leader, party
leadership has been playing down the importance of the
split, emphasizing that the high command has not sacked
the senior leader. Nor has Karunakaran publicly
criticized Sonia Gandhi's leadership. However, with
Karunakaran resigning his Rajya Sabha membership, a
substitute will have to be elected and it is only a
matter of time before the present politeness gives way
to the reality of the split. Meanwhile, Karunakaran's
daughter Padmaja, reportedly engaged in a sibling
rivalry with her brother Muraleedharan, has not yet
made up her mind about which side to join.

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KEEPING TO THE LEFT AND WAITING FOR SIGNALS
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6. (SBU) Although the opposition leaders indicate in
public statements that they have yet to deliberate on
any tie up with the new party, senior journalists told
Post that the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF)
will eventually strike a deal with the new party.
Johnny Lukose, News Editor of Kerala's leading daily
Malayala Manorama, told Post that the new party's
political and economic resolutions point in that
direction. The political resolution ends with the
exhortation that the Congress and the left parties who
coordinate at the Center should likewise cooperate in
Kerala too.

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Karunakaran Deftly Plays the Hindu Communal Card
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7. (SBU) According to Hassan and many others,
Karunakaran and Muraleedharan are subtly playing the
Hindu communal card against Chandy's leadership.
Chandy is an Orthodox Christian and his closest allies
are the Indian Union Muslim League. There is already
an undercurrent of resentment in the state against "the
coalition of Christians and Muslims" (together
constituting 43% of the population) who wield
disproportionate power in the Congress-led government.
Dropping only hints and suggestions, Karunakaran in
public statements, however, continues to be as
minority-friendly as ever. Lukose believes that if the
new party is not honorably accommodated within the LDF,
they might eventually end up with the BJP, thus
exacerbating the communal divide in Kerala. The state
has still not elected any BJP candidate to the Assembly
or Parliament.

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UPCOMING ELECTIONS WILL PREVIEW 2006
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8. (SBU) Kerala's local administration (Panchayat)
elections, due in September 2005, might offer a preview
of the shape of things to come in the State Assembly
elections of 2006. Some believe they do not have to
wait that long to conclude that whichever way the
rebels turn, it will be advantage LDF. "That view is
only short-term," says Hassan, who believes that after
Karunakaran's lifetime, the party workers will all
return to the fold. Both Hassan and Lukose believe
that playing the Hindu communal card can also backfire,
with a consolidation of the minorities behind the
Congress and the UDF. "Generally speaking, the
minorities tend to consolidate better than the Hindu
caste groups," says Lukose.


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NOTHING TO LOSE, EXCEPT TROUBLE MAKERS
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9. (SBU) COMMENT: Kerala's two leading coalitions, the
UDF and the LDF, generally alternate in power. In
light of that trend, the prevailing notion in the
Congress is that, with or without the split, the next
election in 2006 will be the opposition LDF's turn.
Faction hardliners like Chief Minister Chandy,
therefore, want to use the opportunity to weed out the
bickering elements and bring about a degree of
cohesiveness in the party in the interim. Chandy has
already taken over most of the former supporters of
A.K. Antony, who continued to lobby the Central
leadership for a softer policy towards the dissidents.
The high command seems to be interested in sending a
strong message to prospective dissidents in other
states by adopting a firm approach. In Kerala,
however, over the short term, the split will only help
the Leftists. END COMMENT

Haynes