MAOIST SCARE FORCES FIVE AP MINISTERS TO QUIT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CHENNAI 001582

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PTER IN
SUBJECT: MAOIST SCARE FORCES FIVE AP MINISTERS TO QUIT



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Revealing the muscle of the Maoists
in the Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh (AP),five
ministers of the Telangana Rashtra Samithy (TRS) quit
the Congress-led state government on July 4. Their
decision, ostensibly to press the Congress to expedite
the formation of a separate state in Telangana, is
actually motivated by the threat of Maoist violence
against the ministers themselves. The continuing
police killings of Maoists, particularly the July 1
shooting of prominent leader Riyaz Khan, has made the
TRS leaders jittery. The TRS, however, will continue
its alliance with the Congress at the Center,
indicating that the party has not lost all hope of
working with the Congress, particularly its High
Command in Delhi. The TRS ministers' quitting will
not affect the stability of the Congress government in
AP. END SUMMARY

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TRS MINISTERS QUIT, OPT FOR PATH OF AGITATION
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2. (SBU) On July 4, five of the six ministers of the
TRS party, an ally of the ruling Congress both at the
Center and the state level, quit the AP cabinet
declaring their intent to take to the path of
agitation to secure a separate Telangana state. The
state would be comprised of the ten northwestern
districts in AP. The sixth minister, Santosh Reddy, a
former Congressman, initially refused to step down but
will reportedly reconsider the decision later. Harish
Rao, one of the five ministers who resigned, told Post
that the resignations are meant to put pressure on the
Congress leadership to expedite the process of
statehood for the Telangana region. "We are deeply
committed to Telangana statehood. It is our party's
single point agenda," Rao said. He alleged that Chief
Minister Y.S. Rajashekhara Reddy had been ignoring the
pleas of the TRS and going ahead with several projects
against the interests of Telangana. Asked what he
considers the biggest roadblock to the formation of
the state, Rao replied: "It is Chief Minister
Rajasekhara Reddy."

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THE MAIN REASON: MAOIST THREAT
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3. (SBU) Although Harish Rao discounted the importance
of an "ultimatum" the Naxalite Communist Party of
India (Maoist) had issued to the TRS to sever links
with the Congress governments before June 15, Post's
contacts believe that the Maoist pressure was the main
factor that prompted the TRS ministers' resignations.
A final decision on acceptance of the resignations
will be made after the Chief Minister returns from an
international trip on July 12. Senior Congress leader
and Irrigation Minister Lakshmiah Ponnala listed the
Naxalite threat as the most important reason behind
the TRS decision. "They obviously wanted some
shelter", Ponnala told Post, adding that the TRS may
well reconsider the decision later. W. Chandrakanth
wrote in the Hindu of July 5: "Stepped up police
activity against the Naxalites that provoked them to
issue ultimatums to the TRS leaders to quit, and the
delay in the submission of the United Progressive
Alliance Sub-Committee's report on Telangana are now
seen as the prime reasons for the TRS decision to
precipitate the matters."

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HEAT ON MAOISTS, AND TELANGANA POLITICIANS
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4. (SBU) Like the TRS, the state's Maoists, too, are
pressing for a separate Telangana state. Both operate
in the same geographical area, which comprises 42% of
AP, but the Maoists do not directly participate in
elections. Several journalist contacts have told Post
of the tacit support the Maoists extended to the
Congress-TRS combine in the 2004 elections. According
to senior journalist Amin Jafri, the Congress-TRS
coalition itself was forged due to the intervention of
the Maoists. After the peace talks between the
Maoists and the GoAP ended inconclusively in October
2004 and the Maoist leaders pulled out of talks in
January 2005, however, the police intensified anti-
Naxalite operations and the Congress/Maoists
relationship became strained. The TRS was caught in
between. According to TRS leaders' own public
statements, they have been pressing the government to
stop the "all-out offensive against them in violation
of its election promise to bring peace."

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"KILL ME, NOT MY PARTYMEN", APPEALS TRS LEADER
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5. (SBU) It is in this context that the CPI (Maoist)
set the deadline on June 15 for the TRS to quit the
alliance with the Congress. Three days later, the
Maoists killed TRS leader Nagabhushan in Karimnagar
District, sending shivers through the TRS hierarchy.
Hundreds of TRS lower rung leaders quit their local
government posts. TRS founder, leader and Union
Minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao made an appeal to the
Maoists through the media not to harm the party
workers. "Kill me first if you want. We are very
close to our goal through the political process and
quitting the posts at this juncture will harm the
cause." According to a Deccan Herald report of July
4, the Maoists have so far killed three TRS men to
send the message that they mean business.

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NAXALITE LEADER'S KILLING CHANGES SCENARIO
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6. (SBU) The TRS leaders' plan to lie low and buy time
received a jolt on July 2, when a prominent Naxalite
leader, CPI(ML-Janashakti) Central Committee Member
Riyaz Khan alias Venkateshwarlu and three associates
were shot dead by the police. Riyaz Khan had directly
participated in the peace talks with the government
and had been widely seen as one of the top leaders of
the Maoist groups in AP. Although the State Director
General of Police Swaranjit Sen declared that it was
the result of a genuine encounter, Maoists and civil
liberties groups described it as a cold-blooded
killing. Media reports indicate that TRS senior
leaders held long discussions in New Delhi with party
President Chandrasekhar Rao in the aftermath of the
killing before deciding to withdraw from the AP
cabinet.

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WATER DISPUTES AND "LADY AMITHABH"
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7. (SBU) Although not as critical as the issue of the
Maoists, the TRS and the Congress have developed
differences on other issues as well. For example, the
TRS leaders view several new irrigation projects as
depriving the Telengana area for the benefit of the
coastal Andhra districts. Amin Jafri pointed out that
Chief Minister Reddy disregarded TRS protests and went
ahead launching the project work, embarrassing the
allies. "The majority of Congress legislators,
including several of them from the Telangana area,
support Reddy", said Jafri.


8. (SBU) To add to TRS' woes, Telugu movie actress
Vijayashanti, who has carefully cultivated the image
of an angry activist and earned the soubriquet "Lady
Amithabh" (Bachchan),has entered the fray of
Telangana campaigners. According to Minister Ponnala
Lakshmiah, Vijayashanti is threatening to take away
the supporters of TRS, after she quit the BJP in May
2005 promising to launch a peoples' movement to fight
for a separate Telangana. Media reports indicate that
some Maoist leaders have extended support to her.
Amin Jafri believes that a jaded movie star like
Vijayashanti cannot have much impact although several
other journalists are not yet willing to write her
off.

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TRS HOPES FOR RELIEF FROM CENTER
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9. (SBU) The two Union Ministers of the TRS, including
party President Rao, have not resigned from the
central cabinet. Justifying the decision, Harish Rao
mentioned that the TRS views the multi-party UPA
government at the Center as qualitatively different
from the Congress-dominated AP government. The TRS
leaders seem to harbor hopes of intervention and
relief from the Congress High Command. "The UPA
allies in general prefer to deal with the Congress
High Command and not the state leaderships", observed
Jafri.

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MAOISTS MAKING AND BREAKING ALLIANCES
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10. (SBU) COMMENT: The resignation of the TRS
ministers indicates the success of the terror tactics
of the Maoists in Telangana, as well as the
frustration of Telangana statehood aspirants with lack
of progress on that front. But because the Congress
party commands a comfortable majority in the state
assembly without TRS support, Chief Minister Reddy is
not unduly upset by the developments. On the question
of the Telangana state, however, all eyes are on the
strategy of the Congress High Command. The majority
of state Congress leaders from the coastal and
Rayalaseema areas of AP, as well as the leftist allies
of the party, are opposed to the bifurcation of the
state as is the opposition TDP party. Right now, the
best the Congress party can hope for is to buy time on
the issue while trying to keep Telengana statehood
hopes alive. END COMMENT

CANDADAI