CHAVEZ SPEECH SHOWS MILITARY "CUBANIZATION" AFOOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 000053

SIPDIS

NSC FOR CBARTON
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ SPEECH SHOWS MILITARY "CUBANIZATION" AFOOT

REF: A. A) IIR 6 902 9910 05

B. B) IIR 6 902 9878 05

C. C) CARACAS 00020

Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARK WELLS FOR 1.4 (D)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Summary: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on
December 27 addressed the armed forces in an over two hour
pep rally and romanticized Venezuelan history lesson that
glorified the military's growing role in society. Peppering
his remarks with anti-US rhetoric, he unveiled to the public
a retro, olive-drab uniform for Venezuelan troops and
announced a change in military doctrine that he said would
hail back to Venezuela's independence-era "roots." He
outlined the growth of domestic military manufacturing and
reminded the troops of spending increases aimed at increasing
their standard-of-living. The press reported opposition
criticism of Chavez's attempts to emulate the Cuban armed
forces in both doctrine and appearance. Although the media
analysis is not far off the mark, the Venezuelan Armed Forces
will be unlikely to translate doctrine into military
readiness. In both timing and content, the speech shows
Chavez's grip over the military is strengthening. End
summary.

--------------
Back to the Roots: New Look, New Doctrine
--------------


2. (C) Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez addressed troops at
Fuerte Tiuna, Caracas's principal military base, in a
longer-than-usual (two hours and 15 minutes) year-end salute
on December 27. Employing his usual histrionic cadence of
calculated pauses and crescendos, Chavez announced the armed
forces would return to its "roots" after a century of being
hijacked by "imperialist" interests. Venezuelan history,
recounted through his perspective of military heroes who
resisted the designs of "imperial" powers, littered his
speech. In particular, he singled out the exploits of
independence hero Francisco de Miranda, although he glossed
over Miranda's downfall at the hands of Simon Bolivar, who
surrendered him to the Spanish. Chavez referred inaccurately
to US history on two occasions, calling Alexander Hamilton
president and mentioning Lincoln as a contemporary of
Washington and Jefferson. Later, he faulted "colonialist"
interests with trying to erase the true version of Venezuelan
history. He concluded his speech with a swipe at SOUTHCOM
and remarked that the military must "throw out the
imperialist venom they have injected in us for 100 years."


3. (C) Chavez hailed the olive drab fatigues sported by
soldiers in attendance as the new Bolivarian uniform, which,
he asserted, resembled those worn by Venezuelan soldiers in
the 18th century. (Note: the uniforms also resemble current
Cuban uniforms. End note.) He said all soldiers should have
the new uniform--dubbed "The Patriot"--by 2005. Chavez
returned in the course of his speech to interject how well
the new look suited his troops.


4. (C) Chavez also invoked Bolivar to change Venezuela's
military doctrine. Bolivar, he said, opposed defensive
strategies, which Chavez interpreted to mean Venezuela should
accelerate its "ideological offensive." Chavez urged the
creation of a civil-military committee to help his former
military academy classmates draft a national security
doctrine to be employed in "asymmetrical wars." Extolling
the virtues of military education, he tasked all military
schools, services, and commands with fomenting the new
strategy.

--------------
The Engine of the Revolution
--------------


5. (C) A second current in Chavez's speech was his
vision of the military as a tool to help spread his
revolution throughout Venezuelan society. The ideological
offensive, he said, should radiate outside the ranks of the
armed forces to help build a new country. He celebrated the
role of the military in the referendum and regional
elections. In an outburst of poetic hyperbole, he said
"there aren't enough stones in the world to erect a statue in
honor of the military's worthy role in fighting poverty..."
Chavez predicted the military would reach to "the farthest
corner of the planet" in its humanitarian mission.
Expanding on the country's economic growth, which was
"first-place in Latin America," Chavez tasked the military
with helping the economy recover and singled out the
leadership roles played by active duty and retired officers
in parastatals.


6. (C) Chavez took issue with the view that the
military should be apolitical, although he conceded it should
not be "partisan." He lambasted media sources for sowing
"indiscipline" by criticizing its political role. Later in
the speech, he spent several minutes praising retired
officers for running for governor.

-------------- --------------
Spending: A Bolivarian Military-Industrial Complex
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Chavez catalogued materiel being repaired in
Venezuela, including tanks, submarines, thousands of rifles,
and the first frigate ever refurbished in Venezuelan
territory. Aircraft such as the Tucanos, the Broncos, and
the F-5s also made his list. Although he admitted that
fabric of sufficient quality could not yet be produced
locally, he predicted that in 2005 Venezuela would be able to
manufacture its own uniforms. (Note: We know of one major
textile manufacturer who offered to bid on the uniforms but
was turned down, presumably for political reasons. End
note.) Chavez also noted the refurbishing of Venezuela's
F-16s (refs A and B),without mentioning that such upgrades
violate USG contract agreements. In an oblique jab at the
United States, he said Venezuela has more powerful friends
each day willing to assist its technological development
without attaching strings. These friends became apparent to
listeners as Chavez next referred to "advanced negotiations"
for radar systems (note: Venezuela currently is considering
buying such equipment from China and Ukraine. end note.) and
the purchase of 41 Russian helicopters and 100,000 Russian
rifles.


8. (C) Chavez also spent considerable time listing
progress made in raising the military's standard of living.
In particular, he highlighted that military personnel in 2004
had received a 30 percent raise, credits to buy cars, and
hospital upgrades worth USD 8 million. Future plans included
creating more military commissaries to sell subsidized food
and improving military housing. Chavez noted he had just
secured in China the financing of about USD 700 million for
public and military residences (ref C).

--------------
Opposition Reaction
--------------


9. (C) Opposition reactions, which tended to focus on
the change in uniform, were predictably pessimistic.
Chavez's first defense minister, General (ret.) Raul Salazar
suggested to the press that the military could be stocking
itself with new munitions to repress the Venezuelan public.
According to a press account, another retired senior officer
predicted the new doctrine would embrace the Cuban strategy
of engaging civilians in national defense.

--------------
Comment
--------------


10. (C) Chavez's control of the military quite likely is
strengthening. The year-end speech marks six years that
Chavez has had to marginalize and dismiss opposition
officers. Meanwhile, new recruits have experienced six years
of indoctrination, which his proposed "ideological offensive"
will only serve to intensify. In addition to his attempts at
flattery, the use of the military in nearly all aspects of
his "revolution" signals to officers that a career in the
armed forces offers opportunities. Moreover, the
aforementioned perks are trickling down to key military
personnel.


11. (C) The Venezuelan Armed Forces are currently incapable
of warfighting and will remain so. Chavez probably will
successfully replace Venezuela's old, US-based doctrine at
least in part with Cuban military theory; his "asymmetrical
warfare" strategy will be aimed at making a US invasion
cost-prohibitive. Nevertheless, the consequences of the
doctrinal shift will be merely ideological. The offensive
nature of many of the weapons systems mentioned would be
useless in an envisioned war with the United States. The
announced acquisitions, production, and refurbishment, thus
show Chavez seeks to distance his troops from the taint of US
materiel while expanding his economic model of import
substitution.
Brownfield