VENEZUELA POLITICAL UPDATE: DECEMBER 5

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 003662

SIPDIS

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HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
FOR FRC LAMBERT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2020
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA POLITICAL UPDATE: DECEMBER 5


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D)

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Summary
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1. (C) After most opposition parties pulled out of the
process, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez' Fifth Republic
Movement (MVR) and its allies swept the December 4 National
Assembly elections, according to preliminary results reported
by the GOV. The MVR received more than two-thirds of the 167
seats, and GOV officials listed the rest of the parties with
seats--all pro-GOV--as alleged proof of the "plural" new
legislature. Venezuelan electoral watchdog Sumate continues
to report procedural irregularities, the chief of which
concerns GOV officials trying to coerce people to vote. The
Spanish parliamentary delegations also apparently had strong
concerns regarding the election process. The latest
announcement of the National Electoral Council (CNE) put the
abstention rate at 75 percent; opposition figures have
alleged much higher figures. OAS delegation leader Ruben
Perina told reporters election day the process was proceeding
normally but refused to comment on reported problems. The
key question remains how the European Union (EU) and
Organization of American States (OAS) observation missions
will publicly assess the election process. End summary.


2. (C) Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez' Fifth Republic
Movement (MVR) party and its allies swept the December 4
National Assembly elections, according to preliminary results
announced in an official GOV press release. The MVR received
114 of the 167 National Assembly seats, improving on its
previous representation of 69 deputies. The new total gives
the MVR two seats more than the two-thirds of the legislature
necessary to alter the constitution and pass organic laws.
The party receiving the second highest total was pro-Chavez
Podemos, with 18 seats, Podemos spokesmen claimed to
reporters December 5. Patria Para Todos, another Chavista
party, apparently secured 11 seats. The pro-GOV clone party
Union of Electoral Winners and other local, indigenous, and
minor parties sympathetic to the GOV received the rest of the
167 seats. Willian Lara, director of the MVR national
tactical command, recited on air late December 4 a host of
little-known pro-GOV parties that would receive seats as
evidence of the "plurality" of the new National Assembly.
Several other GOV ministers also publicly proclaimed the
fairness of the election.

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Reported Problems
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3. (C) Venezuelan electoral watchdog Sumate's co-director
Alejandro Plaz announced December 4 that 24 percent of the
complaints Sumate received concerned the GOV coercing people
to vote. Current opposition National Assembly deputy Pedro
Diaz Blum told poloff December 4 Carabobo State government
officials told him they had been threatened with dismissal
for not voting. DAO sources reported that Venezuelan
officials and the military were trying to intimidate people
into voting (IIR SEPTEL). PDVSA workers in Zulia State told
poloff they were instructed to vote or not bother to return
to work on Monday. Another complaint Plaz listed was the use
of GOV vehicles to ransport voters to the polls. Sumate
co-director Maria Corina Machado claimed on air the night of
December 4 that over a million people--one-third of the total
voters--had cast their votes after 4:00 PM, when polls were
initially scheduled to close.

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Abstention
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4. (C) Announced abstention rates have varied. The MVR
initially reported 67 percent had abstained from voting, but
the CNE later raised the figure to 75 percent, presumably as
more votes were counted. A Smartmatic official told poloff
the night of December 4 abstention was 70 percent.
Opposition sources, meanwhile, have alleged that abstention
rates were much higher. Sumate, for example, claimed its
review of participation at a statistically valid set of
polling places revealed an 82 percent rate, according to
press reports. Salas Roemer of Projecto Venezuela indicated
that according to his pollster, non-voters were at 92 percent
at 4:00 PM. Venamcham's survey noted that absenteeism was 85
percent with a third of the votes cast as either null or
blank.


5. (C) The GOV is arguing that the announced rates are
consistent with historic norms. Interior Minister Jesse
Chacon said opposition party Accion Democratica received a
parliamentary majority with 11 percent of the national vote
in 1998, although he somewhat disingenuously failed to report
the percentage representing the national turnout. According
to press reports, the highest abstention on record with the
CNE was a rate of 76.2 percent recorded during the 2000 local
elections. During the 2000 National Assembly elections, only
43.7 percent of the electoral registry did not vote,
according to CNE statistics.

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Observer Statements
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6. (C) OAS delegation leader Ruben Perina told Globovision
reporters on election day that the process was proceeding
"normally and peacefully" but brushed off questions about the
level of participation and reported problems, saying the OAS
was still collecting data. (Note: Globovision was airing
its broadcast December 4 on a one-hour delay, apparently to
give itself time to self-censor material the GOV would
declare objectionable.) Both the OAS and EU observer
missions are expected to make official statements on December

6. Roberto Cuellar, director of the umbrella organization
for CAPEL, the organization contracted by the CNE to audit
the electoral registry, criticized the process for not
including the fingerprint-capturing machines. (Note: Having
a CNE-paid body act as an observer violates the U.N.
declaration of principles and code of conduct for
international election observation.) Another official linked
to Cuellar's mission noted the low turnout observed in
contrast to the August municipal elections.


7. (C) Spanish polcouns Gonzalo Fournier told poloff that
the multi-partisan Spanish parliamentary delegation
accredited by the CNE was concerned about the high abstention
rate, the reliability of the machines to guarantee vote
confidentiality, the military's presence in the voting

SIPDIS
centers, and the CNE's behavior leading up to and through the
election. Fournier also believed, based on the delegation's
observation, that abstention was higher than the CNE
estimate. The Spanish delegation, which as accredited
observers observed an audit in at least one opposition voting
center, noted that the voting tally sheets (actas) registered
that half the votes cast were for parties that had withdrawn
from the election. The poll workers considered these
"consciously nullified (i.e., by the voter) votes." If these
votes were factored in, the abstention rate would probably be
close to 80 percent, according to Fournier.
Comment

8. (C) Clearly the turnout for the National Assembly
elections was extremely light, despite open intimidation
efforts by government officials to get people to vote. That
the government was willing to extend voting hours based on
relatively specious justifications, even with the OAS and EU
observers present, to try to increase the numbers, was not
surprising. The only question that remains is how the EU and
OAS missions will publicly portray their observation of the
Venezuelan electoral process.
BROWNFIELD