GOV TAKES ANTI-US TACK ON GRANDA AFFAIR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 000293

SIPDIS

NSC FOR C. BARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: GOV TAKES ANTI-US TACK ON GRANDA AFFAIR

REF: SECSTATE 11483

Classified By: Political Counselor Abelardo A. Arias for reason 1.4 (d)
.

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Venezuelan officials shifted from the battle with
Colombia over the capture of FARC leader Rodrigo Granda to
anti-US criticism January 19. The officials took advantage
of comments regarding Venezuela by the Secretary designate in
her Senate confirmation hearings and began painting the
Granda affair as an imperialist affront to both Andean
countries. Chavez mocked the Secretary designate after a
GoV-sponsored march on 23 January and blamed the US for
instigating the Colombia-Venezuela crisis. The GoV position
had centered on asserting that Colombia had violated its
sovereignty following President Hugo Chavez's demand for an
apology from his Colombian counterpart January 14. As
Colombia maintained its position and international actors
sought to calm tensions, the GoV has resorted to tried and
true tactics: get all your people out on message, and have
that message include blame for the United States. End
Summary.


2. (U) Following the Secretary designate's January 18
testimony in her Senate confirmation hearings, the GoV began
to accuse Washington of participating in the capture of FARC
leader Rodrigo Granda in Caracas. Most GoV public statements
portrayed the US as trying to arrest Latin American
unification by sowing discord between Colombia and Venezuela.
On January 19, Foreign Minister Ali Rodriguez and
Information Minister Andres Izarra lambasted the secretary
designate's remarks on Venezuela, and National Assembly first
vice president Ricardo Gutierrez said the tone of her remarks
served to try to justify the "kidnapping." National Assembly
president Nicolas Maduro told the legislature that "the black
hand of the United States" was behind the
Colombian-Venezuelan conflict.

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Bandwagon Jumpers
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3. (C) Chavez supporters--some with direct orders from the
GoV--have since rushed to echo the party line on alleged
sovereignty violations and US complicity in the Granda case.
Aragua Governor Didalco Bolivar told the DCM that the
administration sent him a letter urging him to rally his
supporters against the sovereignty violation. Other sectors
of Chavismo have added their voices to the administration's
new spin. For example, a group of pro-Chavez retired
military officers delivered a protest note, which alluded to
US complicity in Granda's capture, to the Colombian Embassy
in Caracas on January 19. Titina Azuaje, the national
coordinator of "Clase Media En Positivo," an NGO of
pro-Chavez professionals, appeared on the Government
television channel for the first time in months to protest
Colombian sovereignty violations.

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Chavez and the US: The Gloves Come Off
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4. (U) The anti-US recriminations culminated at a Sunday,
January 23 "march for sovereignty" to Miraflores, the
presidential palace. The GoV brought by bus people from most
regions of the country to attend the protest, press reports
noted. Some marchers carried anti-US banners decrying
"Yankee imperialism and the Colombian oligarchy." According
to press reports, some members of the Government-sponsored
march shouted support for Granda and demanded that Colombia
return him to Venezuela. A simultaneous--although much
smaller--opposition march protested the presence of insurgent
groups in Venezuela.


5. (C) Having hinted at the involvement of the USG
("hegemonic groups") in the Granda affair during the previous
Sunday's "Alo Presidente" address, Chavez pulled no punches
in his 90-minute speech to marchers at Miraflores. He
taunted the Secretary designate, using highly offensive
language, and called the crisis over Granda's capture a
"provocation" from Washington. State and local leaders also
participated in the march and offered the press conspiracy
theories about US participation in the Granda capture.
"Forget about the FARC," said Miranda Governor Diosdado
Cabello, "the fundamental issue is (US designs on) Venezuelan
oil."

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Diplomacy Discarded
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6. (U) The Chavez administration has either spurned or
ignored diplomatic efforts by third parties to resolve the
impasse. Despite arbitration offers by the OAS, Mexico,
Peru, and Brazil, Chavez during his speech to the marchers
threatened to freeze relations with Bogota, reiterating a
January 14 demand that the GoC recognize it made a mistake
and promise it would never again violate Venezuela's
sovereignty. Chavez also issued on January 14 a moratorium
on all bilateral economic projects, such as a planned oil
pipeline. His statement generated panic at the border until
the Venezuelan military and locals realized his words did not
signal an end of trade. Border commerce remained stunted,
however, as the GoV began enforcing checkpoints to deter the
smuggling of subsidized Venezuelan gasoline into Colombia.
The press reported January 26 that Venezuelan authorities had
been holding up 150 trucks carrying 6,000 tons of Colombian
coal destined to be exported to the United States via the
port of Maracaibo.


7. (C) During his January 24 visit to Maracaibo, econcouns
found business leaders grouped in the local Chamber of
Commerce extremely concerned about the prospect of an
interruption in trade with Colombia. (Zulia state, of which
Maracaibo is the capital, has an extensive border with
Colombia). They noted that trade between the two countries
is relatively balanced, and the pain would be felt on both
sides of the border. However, they thought that Chavez was
counting on the fact that while Venezuela mainly sends raw
materials to Colombia (oil, steel, aluminum),Colombia sends
mainly finished products to Venezuela, and thus has more jobs
directly at stake.


8. (U) After demanding proof from Colombia that terrorists
were active in Venezuelan territory, Vice President Rangel
dismissed a list of ten guerrillas supplied by the GoC,
calling it "irrelevant." Maduro blasted the list as a US
attempt to destabilize Latin America. Rangel also called a
US diplomatic note asking foreign capitals to urge Venezuela
to deal with the problem of terrorism within its borders
"severed from reality" because, unlike the United States,
Venezuela enjoyed wide respect in the international
community. MVR deputy William Lara said in response to the
US note that the GoV would send groups throughout the United
States and Latin America to spread the GoV's version of the
story.

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It's Sovereignty, Stupid
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9. (U) After the National Assembly failed to garner
unanimous support for a resolution on the defense of
Venezuelan sovereignty on 18 January, Rangel met with
National Assembly deputies and told them not to "confuse and
manipulate the issue by arguing about terrorism." On January
20, the resolution passed with the backing of opposition
parties COPEI, MAS, La Causa R, UNT, and Solidaridad after
the change of some wording, including the removal of
references to the Colombian President and Defense Minister.
Opposition parties AD, Primero Justicia, Proyecto Venezuela,
and Bloque Social Democratica abstained from voting, arguing
that the document was flawed because it did not condemn the
presence of terrorists in Venezuela.

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COMMENT
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10. (C) The Granda affair has sparked muted criticism of
the GoV from throughout the political spectrum. Granda's
Venezuelan citizenship resonated with the opposition, which
was resentful of his protection by Venezuelan law, and the
left, which was troubled by rumors that the GoV had sold out
a compatriot. In response, the Chavez administration has
succeeded in keeping much of local discourse on Venezuelan
sovereignty and off terrorism. The hype of both the march
and Chavez's follow-on diatribe eclipsed a press report
issued the same day that Colombian police had captured
another Colombian guerrilla with a Venezuelan citizenship
card near the Venezuelan border. Chavez has resorted to his
typical tactics for confronting a seemingly intractable
problem. He successfully distracts the public from issues at
hand because he is adept at turning out all of his supporters
to hammer home a unified message: the United States is to
blame.


11. (C) Chavez's effort to show up the GoC has eliminated,
at least for the near term, the possibility of a face-saving
end to the standoff for either party, as Colombian Foreign
Minister Carolina Barco affirmed following a January 27
meeting with Rodriguez that Colombia would not apologize.
Chavez probably intends his vaguely worded threat to freeze
relations to serve, in the words of former Colombian
President Ernesto Samper, as "economic blackmail." Yet
Chavez, for whom politics always trumps economics, would not
be above cutting off trade with Colombia, even though the
cost of such a move to the Venezuelan economy would be
substantial.


12. (C) Chavez's moves have reassured Chavistas and the
left, and his use of sovereignty and anti-US banners has
limited the ability of the opposition to seize on this issue.
Chavez has lost ground, we think, with most Latin American
governments. We see no indication Chavez would seek a large
scale military incursion into Colombia. He may, however, be
contemplating an abduction or lure operation against
Colombian military or police officers.
BROWNFIELD