CNE PERFORMANCE IN MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS CONFIRMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002406

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NSC FOR CBARTON
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2015
TAGS: PGOV VE
SUBJECT: CNE PERFORMANCE IN MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS CONFIRMS
DISTRUST


Classified By: ACTING DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION JOHN S. CREAMER FOR 1.4 (
D)

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Summary
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1. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) showed its
continued bias in favor of the governing coalition during
municipal elections on Sunday. Despite media and opposition
reports of low turnout, CNE President Jorge Rodriguez
arbitrarily extended voting hours twice, citing problems in
some states and CNE information showing a steady stream of
voters at polls nationwide. Sumate Vice President Maria
Corina Machado and Justice First Secretary General Gerardo
Blyde denounced both extensions as illegal and contrary to
the observer reports. Opposition CNE member Sobella Mejia
said the second extension violated CNE regulations. While
voting appeared to proceed smoothly in Caracas, some
irregularities and technical problems complicated the process
in various states. The final results of the elections are
still pending, but the MVR appears to be winning most seats.
The CNE's actions highlight the need for credible,
international observation to ensure fairness and transparency
in the December legislative elections. End summary.

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CNE Does Its Part for Government Turnout
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2. (U) Despite reports of dismal turnout, National
Electoral Council (CNE) President Jorge Rodriguez arbitrarily
extended voting hours twice, the first time for two hours and
the second time for an additional hour. Rodriguez based his
decision on alleged delays in voting that occurred in several
states, particularly Zulia and Carabobo, and on data from the
fingerprint machines, which indicated that approximately
2,800 people were voting per minute late in the afternoon.
The Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) took advantage of the
extension to get more of its supporters to the polls.
Several MVR officials, including President Hugo Chavez, urged
their supporters to vote and the MVR coalition accelerated
its Operation Galope-- going door to door to drag more voters
to the polls. Approximately 490,000 people were able to vote
during the extended hours.


3. (U) The opposition was quick to criticize the decision as
illegal and suspicious. Sumate Vice President Maria Corina
Machado said the extensions violated the letter and spirit of
the Law for Suffrage and Citizen Participation. Justice
First Secretary General Gerardo Blyde not only denounced both
extensions as illegal, but said the estimated voting rate
used to justify the second extension contradicted what his
party's observers were reporting. He feared the CNE would
use the extensions to illegally inflate the governing MVR
vote totals. Even CNE opposition member Sobella Mejias
denounced the second extension as a violation of CNE
regulations.

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Minor Irregularities
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4. (C) Voting generally went smoothly, despite a few
problems. Embassy observers deployed throughout Caracas
reported few irregularities, while newspaper, opposition,
and international observers reported limited problems outside
the capital. In opposition-led Zulia state, late or absent
poll workers were responsible for delays in poll openings.
In one municipality in Carabobo, MVR officials were accused
of bussing in voters the night before the election to help
the local MVR mayoral candidate win. Carabobo Governor Luis
Acosta Carles also was reported for violating electoral norms
by congratulating the candidate and predicting an MVR victory
inside a polling center. The electoral council of one
municipality in Aragua state was dismissed after several
irregularities were reported. Some voters claimed that their
polling stations were changed without notice or that their
names did not appear on voting rolls even though they had
received written confirmation of their voting centers from
the CNE. Rodriguez said only a fraction of the voting


machines had to be replaced and only five electronic
notebooks in Nueva Esparta failed.

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Abstention Meets Expectations
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5. (U) Preliminary projections indicate abstention levels
were consistent with previous local elections. Preliminary
CNE estimates put the abstention rate at 70 percent.
Colombian National Electoral Council Vice President Guillermo
Reyes, an accredited international observer, speculated
turnout of between 18 and 24 percent. Emboffs' observations
in the Caracas area track with Reyes' estimate. In fact,
more people were waiting in lines to buy food at local
markets or to board busses for the beach than to vote. Poll
workers told Emboffs they estimated an 80 percent abstention
rate. Sumate estimates abstention at 78 percent. In
conversations with Emboffs, most non-voters cited
indifference as their reason for not participating, with only
a few citing distrust of the CNE.


6. (U) Still, opposition leaders and most newspapers are
claiming that so-called record abstention was an indictment
of the CNE. Maria Corina Machado hailed the abstention as a
sign to the world that the CNE lacks credibility.
International observers accredited by the CNE downplayed the
high abstention and said that turnout for this election was
no different than in other Latin American countries' local
elections. Some ruling party leaders are consoling
themselves with the fact that more of their supporters voted
than the opposition. Chavista supporter and newspaper
publisher Servando Garcia Ponce denied that the low turnout
reflected public distrust of the CNE, noting that Chavistas
had little reason to fear the CNE and yet many had stayed
away from the polls.

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MVR Leading the Pack
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7. (C) Results continue to trickle in, but observers expect
a massive MVR victory. Jesus Suarez, the Accion Democratica
(AD) Secretary General for Caracas, told poloff the MVR won
13 municipal positions in Caracas and press reports give MVR
two mayorships. AD gubernatorial candidate in Amazonas state
Bernabe Gutierrez appeared to be leading with 40 percent of
the vote last night, but Suarez thought Gutierrez would lose
to the Patria Para Todos (PPT) candidate even if the CNE had
to resort to trickery. PJ leader Juan Carlos Caldera told
poloff that preliminary results indicate PJ won municipal
seats in Tachira, Zulia, and Falcon states, which is an
improvement over its showing in 2000 when the party won only
in Miranda state. As of this morning, the opposition had
also registered wins in its strongholds of Baruta, Chacao and
El Hatillo.

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Comment
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8. (C) The outcome of this election was not a surprise.
With voter participation rates falling well below the 40
percent called for by President Chavez, it appears the CNE
tried to inflate turnout by extending voting hours. Still,
even the CNE was forced to eventually accept the high
abstention rate in the face of overwhelming media footage of
empty voting centers. Although the CNE's decision to extend
voting hours does not appear to have had a significant impact
on the final results, its arbitrary actions in favor of the
Chavista candidates have reinforced its image as a biased,
unfaithful arbiter of the electoral process. Its actions
highlight the need for credible, comprehensive international
observation of the December legislative elections.
Brownfield


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2005CARACA02406 - CONFIDENTIAL