Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05CARACAS1822
2005-06-15 19:19:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

NUCLEAR VENEZUELA A LONG WAY OFF

Tags:  ENRG MNUC PREL VE 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001822 

SIPDIS


NSC FOR SHANNON AND BARTON
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2015
TAGS: ENRG MNUC PREL VE
SUBJECT: NUCLEAR VENEZUELA A LONG WAY OFF

REF: CARACAS 1667

Classified By: Economic Counselor Richard M. Sanders.
Reasons: 1.4(b) and (d).

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001822

SIPDIS


NSC FOR SHANNON AND BARTON
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2015
TAGS: ENRG MNUC PREL VE
SUBJECT: NUCLEAR VENEZUELA A LONG WAY OFF

REF: CARACAS 1667

Classified By: Economic Counselor Richard M. Sanders.
Reasons: 1.4(b) and (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) In public comments on May 22, President Chavez raised
the prospect of Venezuela (with Iranian assistance)
developing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. But to
undertake any new nuclear program the GOV would have to start
from scratch. Venezuela's small research reactor, built in
the 1950's has long been shut down. Basic geological
research to find uranium deposits has been abandoned. An
early 1980's proposal for the state power company to build a
nuclear generation station never went anywhere. Large
infusions of cash would be needed to start a new nuclear
program, but the main limiting condition on developing any
nuclear capacity is the absence of a cadre of knowledgeable
scientists and engineers, which could take years to create.
End summary.

--------------
Chavez Speaks, Then is Silent
--------------


2. (U) On his May 22 "Alo, Presidente" weekly television
broadcast, President Chavez said that Venezuela was
interested in developing a nuclear program "to diversify
energy sources" (reftel). He said that unlike the U.S.,
which possesses and has used nuclear weapons, a Venezuelan
program would be for "development, life and peace." He
stated that in addition to working with Latin American
countries such as Brazil and Argentina, Venezuela would look
to cooperate with Iran, adding that he was sure that Iran was
"not making any atomic bomb, but was moving ahead on research
in the nuclear area for scientific and technical
advancement." Chavez's remarks received wide coverage both
domestically and internationally, with Brazil in particular
stressing that it would not participate in any nuclear
research activities with Iran, a country that does not accept
international safeguards. Other than his May 22 remarks,
Chavez has made no further reference to this subject.


3. (U) After the initial round of controversy, comment has
ceased regarding the prospect of a "nuclear Venezuela" with
the exception of a June 5 press release from the Venezuelan

embassy in Brasilia, available on the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs website, which denounces "the media war constructed
from the headquarters of transnational hegemonic power, at
whose head is President George W. Bush." The press release
includes a reminder that Venezuelan interest in nuclear
matters long pre-dates the Chavez government, citing a
nuclear energy accord signed between Venezuela and Brazil in

1983.

--------------
Nuclear Research Program Long Gone
--------------

4 (C) And, despite its vitriol, the press release is
correct in reminding its readers that Venezuela has a nuclear
history, if a meager one. Miguel Octavio, a physicist (Ph.D
Harvard) who formerly was associated with the Venezuelan
Scientific Research Institute (IVIC) told econcouns on June 7
that IVIC, a state body, roughly equivalent, albeit on a much
smaller scale, to the U.S. National Science Foundation and/or
the Department of Energy's national laboratories, had
purchased a small research reactor from General Electric
during the 1950's and installed it in Los Teques on the
outskirts of Caracas. This reactor, which had control
systems which used vacuum tubes, as opposed to transistors,
eventually was considered obsolete and difficult to operate,
and was shut down in the mid-1980's. (According to Adolfo
Taylhardat, who served as Venezuelan Ambassador to the
International Atomic Energy Agency at that time, the IAEA had
repeatedly expressed its concerns to the GOV before the
reactor was brought down. End note.) No money was made
available to upgrade or replace the research reactor. As of
now, according to Octavio, IVIC's only nuclear program is a
small gamma ray emission facility for crystallography,
sterilization of insects for biological research etc.


5. (C) Octavio said Venezuela's nuclear scientists, never
large in number and mainly trained in the 1960's and 1970's,
have all moved on to other countries, other fields of
research, or other careers. (He himself is now a millionaire
investment banker.) Any nuclear program would require
educating a whole new generation of physicists and engineers.
Noting that a Ph.D requires five to seven years on top of an
undergraduate degree, he said that if the GOV started now, it
would be a decade before it could create any kind of nuclear
research capability. Before then, any facilities would have
to be designed, built, supervised, and operated entirely by
foreigners.

--------------
Uranium Program Too
--------------


6. (C) On June 8, Tomasso Tosiani, Director of the Earth
Sciences Institute of the Central University of Venezuela,
laid out for econcouns the history of the effort to determine
whether Venezuela might have its own uranium deposits.
(Note: such deposits would be highly useful to any country
which wanted to develop a nuclear program free from
international safeguards which require the accounting of
transfers of nuclear materials. End note.) Tosiani said
that beginning in the mid-1960's the "Autonomous Corporation
for Electrical Administration and Development" (CADAFE),the
state-owned electrical generation and transmission
enterprise, had sponsored basic uranium geology on the
University's part. Areas in Guayana, Cojedes, and the Andes
were identified as having potential. Further research
centered on the Andes, where rocks were found with 10-20
parts per million of uranium, versus a normal background
amount of 4 parts per million. However, CADAFE lost
interest, especially after it was decentralized into
autonomous regional divisions, and core samples were never
taken to determine whether or not a viable resource existed.


7. (C) Tosiani said Venezuela had the necessary geological
talent on hand to re-start a uranium search, although he
added that the best way would be to begin again, using
satellite mapping technology unavailable earlier. He agreed
with Octavio's assessment that Venezuela did not have the
physicists and engineers for a program to develop nuclear
power or weapons. While countries with comparable levels of
development such as India and Pakistan had done so, first
they put time into developing their cadres of experts. Like
Octavio, he estimated that it would take Venezuela 10 years
to do this.

--------------
Power Plant that Never Happened
--------------


8. (C) In his May 22 discourse, Chavez suggested that state
electric power generator and transmitter CADAFE would be the
action agency for the nuclear program. In a June 9
conversation with econcouns, Fredy Garcia, a senior executive
at CADAFE, now on loan to the Ministry of Energy and
Petroleum as an aide to the vice minister in charge of
electricity, said there had been no instructions from any
source to follow up on Chavez's comments. He added that
CADAFE had no current nuclear expertise. He went on to say
that in addition to sponsoring the geological research
mentioned above, during the early 1980's CADAFE had given
some consideration of construction of a nuclear power plant,
and a site at Cabruta, Guarico state, had been purchased.
However, this idea was subsequently abandoned and nuclear
power has no place right now in Venezuela's electrical energy
planning, which is oriented to the construction of gas fired
plants, as the potential for hydro power becomes exhausted
with the construction of the last of four dams on the Caroni
River, due to finish in 2008.

--------------
Military without Nuclear Orientation
--------------


9. (C) Physicist-turned banker Octavio said that when
IVIC's nuclear program existed, Venezuela's military had a
definite, but limited interest in it. At one point, a
scientist who had dual Venezuelan-Colombian citizenship had
been nominated to run the nuclear program. For "strategic"
reasons, the Armed Forces vetoed his appointment. The
military itself had invested some small effort to develop
nuclear expertise, but had made nowhere near the same
commitment that counterparts in Argentina or Brazil had made
in the 1970's and 80's. It had sent a few officers abroad to
study nuclear physics or engineering, and sought to have one
officer working at IVIC at any given moment. However, the
high intellectual quality of the few officers who had
received nuclear training meant they were in demand for other
positions, either military or civilian, where some technical
capability was required. The officer most renowned in this
field was at one point reassigned from IVIC to run the
"National Waterways Institute" which manages dredging on the
Orinoco River, Lake Maracaibo and other commercially
important bodies of water. Octavio doubted that there was
now anyone on active duty in any of the Venezuelan armed
services with nuclear scientific or engineering background.

--------------
Price Tag
--------------


10. (C) Octavio suggested that a new small research reactor
could be purchased for about USD 30 million. Scholarships to
send Venezuelans abroad to study nuclear science or
engineering would cost several millions. Geologist Tosiani
suggested that a "basic geochemical map" of Venezuela, which
would be the logical first step of re-starting a uranium
search program would cost about USD 250,000, although further
follow-on would be required. But while the basics are not
that expensive, anything beyond that, such as the actual
construction of a nuclear power generation plant would take
hundreds of millions of dollars.

--------------
Comment: For Now, Just Talk
--------------


11. (C) We have yet to see any evidence that the expression
of interest in nuclear energy is anything more than one of
Chavez's rhetorical sallies, designed to pique the USG and
other Chavez opponents. As of now any nuclear program, even
a basic research one, would have to be completely turn-key.
And then, for a decade, foreign scientists and engineers
would have to be brought in actually to turn the key of any
facility. The large sums of money to be spent would have to
come out of the short-term, politically profitable social
spending that has been the hallmark of GOV policies under
Chavez. Still, the prospect of having some kind of nuclear
capability doubtless has a visceral appeal for him. The
countries that he sees as its potential comrades in a global
anti-US crusade -- Russia, China, India, Brazil, and Iran
-- all have nuclear programs, either peaceful or military.
Belonging to that club would fit well with Chavez's
pretensions. For now, a nuclear program is just talk.
However, if the Bolivarian Republic starts handing out
scholarships for graduate work in physics, we will need to
start taking it more seriously.
Brownfield


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2005CARACA01822 - CONFIDENTIAL