UPDATE ON THE USAID-FUNDED VENEZUELAN ELECTORAL

UNCLAS CARACAS 000169

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL EAID KDEM PHUM VE
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON THE USAID-FUNDED VENEZUELAN ELECTORAL
OBSERVATION ORGANIZATION "OJO ELECTORAL"


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SUMMARY
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1. The National Democratic Institute for International
Affairs (NDI) has been working in Venezuela since September
2003, to support the establishment of a domestic electoral
observation organization that is widely perceived as
credible and impartial by a majority of Venezuelans. This
is even more important now than when the effort first
started given that the credibility of the Carter Center -
and to a lesser extent the OAS - was damaged in the eyes of
the Venezuelan opposition as a result of the events
surrounding the August 15, 2004, presidential recall
referendum. Similarly, those few existing Venezuelan NGOs
with the capacity to carry out electoral observation are
mistrusted by supporters of the government. There is the
clear need for a trusted and capable domestic organization
to fill this void. The organization, "Ojo Electoral"
(Electoral Eye),is in the process of positioning itself to
become that organization - not just for upcoming electoral
events, but as a permanent fixture of the Venezuelan
electoral landscape. End Summary.
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OJO ELECTORAL OVERVIEW
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2. In September, 2003, USAID awarded NDI $770,000 to work
with civil society to help ensure the transparency and
integrity of electoral processes through domestic
observation. This project is being implemented through
cooperation with a recently-constituted civil society
organization called "Ojo Electoral" which is a consortium of
individuals and groups affiliated with both the government
and the opposition. The long term goal of this project is
to establish a domestic electoral observation organization
which is widely perceived as being both credible and
politically neutral by a majority of Venezuelans.

3. The board of Ojo Electoral is composed of five
individuals: Carlos Genatios - former Chavez government
minister, and a Chavez supporter; Eleazar Dias Rangel - the
director of the daily Ultimas Noticias which is perceived as
left-leaning and pro-Chavez; Jose Virtuoso - a Jesuit who is
perceived as politically nonaligned; Ignacio Avalos -
columnist for the daily El Nacional - opposition light; and
Elias Pino Iturrieta - also a columnist for El Nacional, and
a strong opposition supporter.

4. The bulk of the observers come from the Catholic NGO Fe y
Alegria (Faith and Joy) which is widely perceived as
supportive of the government. Almost all the observers are
affiliated with the network of Fe y Alegria schools
throughout the country, making them well-positioned
geographically to serve as observers where needed.

5. Progress on this project has been much slower than
anticipated due to the ongoing attacks of President Chavez
on organizations that have received USG support - in
addition to regular attacks on the USG itself. This
resulted in the initial reluctance of individuals and
organizations to be affiliated with this project - and which
also resulted in the Ojo board's decision to not accept USG
funding, even through NDI, to cover the purchase of
equipment and office set-up expenses out of concern that
this could potentially compromise the perceived neutrality
of the observation effort. (Note: Ojo is, however, willing
to accept technical assistance from NDI such as consultation
and training, which has comprised the bulk of NDI's
assistance to Ojo Electoral.) Prior to the August 15
referendum and the October 31 regional elections, NDI worked
with numerous embassies in an attempt to secure non-USG
funding for the project, with no success beyond statements
of moral support. Several Veneuelan foundations, however,
were more accommodatng and provided approximately $100,000
for offic expenses and the purchase / rental of equipment
such as computers and cell phones. Post-referendum NDI
reported that local donors are much less enhusiastic about
providing financial supprt to Ojo.
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Ojo Electoral Observation of the Referendum and Regional
Elections
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6. On the evening of August 13, and after a long process of
negotiation, the National Electoral Council (CNE),
accredited only 195 of the 295 observers that Ojo Electoral
needed to carry out their planned observation effort - and
which proved statistically impossible to reprogram so as to
ensure the validity of the observation. In response, Ojo
decided to use the August 15 referendum as a training
exercise - only issuing a press release commenting on the
process rather than the results. The primary outcome of
this observation exercise, and the ensuing controversy
surrounding the results of the referendum, was that the
members of Ojo saw first-hand the critical need for
Venezuela to have a credible and politically-neutral
electoral observation organization. The board of Ojo
committed to developing their organization as a permanent
electoral fixture.



7. The CNE was more accommodating for the October 31
regional elections, accrediting over 400 Ojo volunteers with
sufficient time for Ojo (in collaboration with NDI) to field
teams that would produce statistically valid results. (As
was the case for the referendum, Ojo was the only domestic
observation group to receive credentials from the CNE. Seven
states were covered (Zulia, Carabobo, Lara, Merida, Nueva
Esparta, Tachira, and Yaracuy) which included the Ojo
observers participating in the audits of the results of
these states. Members of the Ojo board also gave a joint
press conference with members of the CNE. This exercise, in
addition to once more bolstering the confidence of Ojo
Electoral, again demonstrated the need for Ojo to mobilize
additional financial resources in order to facilitate and
professionalize their efforts.
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Moving Forward
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8. Two NDI electoral consultants spent some days in December
with the board of Ojo to work on the strategy for the coming
year. A significant development from past visits is that
both felt that they are now perceived as trusted members of
the team, rather than as outsiders; that the Ojo board
strongly appreciates that their support is critical for
Ojo's future and institutional development.

9. The Ojo board is now also prepared - with the assistance
of NDI - to make a serious effort to engage other
governments, in addition to the USG, to mobilize additional
resources. In December, Ojo representatives called on
representatives of the EU, Canada, the Netherlands (very
receptive) and Norway. Ojo is planning additional calls on
the Austrians, the British, the Japanese, the Finns, UNDP,
and Spain. (Note: This is something that NDI and Ojo had
been working on prior to the referendum, but with recent
transitions of embassy staffs, and the onward movement of
funding cycles, in some cases they are starting from
scratch.) At this juncture, even symbolic donations would be
useful both for providing political cover as well as priming
the pump for other donations.

10. Current Work Plan:
- Observe the parliamentary recall elections scheduled
for February.
- Carry out an audit of the Registro Electoral Permanente
(REP),possibly starting in April. This will be preceded in
February by a visit from Pavel Centeno, the director of
FLACSO, a Latin American academic / political research
institution located in Guatemala. Centano will be working
with Ojo to walk them through a methodology for auditing an
electoral registry. Depending on resource availability, the
audit may be completed as early as June. The mechanisms for
release of the audit results will depend on the results
themselves. (Note: Ojo fully appreciates that an audit of
the REP could put them in conflict with the CNE - which, on
the other hand, would offset any perception that they are
becoming too close to the CNE.)
- An April workshop in Caracas with Latin American
political specialists - including the participation of Ojo
observers from around the country. Topics will include:
electoral observation in general, issues related to recent
Venezuelan electoral events, electronic voting, experiences
with dialogue in highly polarized environments, and
experiences of organizations that have come under attack by
their governments. In addition to the exchange of technical
information, this event is also intended to motivate /
encourage members of Ojo, as well as serve as a forum for
publicizing the presence and work of Ojo. The embassies of
Argentina, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Colombia and
Chile have all agreed to pay the airfares for individuals
from their respective countries (participants to be chosen
by the Ojo board). In addition, NDI will finance the
participation of specialists from Guatemala, Nicaragua, Peru
and a still-to-be-identified country (participants to be
chosen by NDI).
- Observe the municipal elections scheduled for July.
- Observe the legislative elections scheduled for later
in the year.


11. The cooperative agreement with NDI terminates on June
30, 2005. It is likely that the cooperative agreement will
be extended at least through the end of the year.

MCFARLAND


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2005CARACA00169 - UNCLASSIFIED