ACCION DEMOCRATICA: LOOKING FOR VOTES IN ALL THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001011

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL VE
SUBJECT: ACCION DEMOCRATICA: LOOKING FOR VOTES IN ALL THE
WRONG PLACES


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR 1.4 (D)

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Summary
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1. (C) Accion Democratica (AD),Venezuela's largest
opposition party, lacks a credible strategy to confront the
administration of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. AD does
not appear to be either revising its platform or attempting
to build coalitions with other parties. Instead, the party
is appealing to governments and political parties abroad,
banking that they will help it confront Chavez. AD fears
that other parties may eclipse it, and this in turn
conditions its approach towards Chavez. The party is
suffering from internal strains over disagreements with the
party leadership such as whether to boycott this year's
municipal and National Assembly elections. AD, which is the
only opposition party with a link on the electoral council
(CNE),is likely to compete in upcoming elections, if only to
keep from losing a place in national politics that is largely
dependent on its foothold as one of Venezuela's historic
political parties. End summary.

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Short on Strategy
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2. (C) Venezuelan opposition party Accion Democratica (AD)
is doing little to prepare for municipal and National
Assembly elections scheduled for August and December,
respectively. Since President Hugo Chavez's administration
hammered the opposition in the October 31 regional elections,
AD has failed to rethink its public platform. Party first
vice president Victor Bolivar complained to poloff February
22 that Chavez's economic policies were unsustainable.
Asked, however, how the party could communicate such failures
to the public, Bolivar merely resumed his criticism. Efforts
to engage former party president Carlos Canache March 22 also
fell flat; Canache could only suggest that AD's national
platform endorse freedom and democracy. Alfredo Coronil,
AD's international affairs secretary, pointed to a June party
congress (originally scheduled for February but postponed
several times) that would review AD's doctrine.

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We Can At Least Win a State
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3. (C) A member of AD's national secretariat of
professionals told poloff the party would focus on winning
the gubernatorial elections in sparsely populated Amazonas
State, which will take place along with the municipal
elections August 7. Winning the state, he said, would carry
the party into the National Assembly elections with momentum.
Party officials told poloff that their candidate, AD
secretary of organization Bernabe Gutierrez, had a good shot

SIPDIS
at winning. (Note: Press reports from 1998 describe
Gutierrez, a former Amazonas governor, as a corrupt official
who shamelessly used state funds in his reelection campaign.
The National Electoral Council forced Gutierrez, facing
charges of election fraud, to step down in 2000 after a vote
recount.)

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Who Needs Allies?
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4. (C) AD has not sought alliances with other parties.
Canache said that neither AD nor any other important
opposition parties were joining forces. AD secretary general
Henry Ramos Allup fumed at an internal party meeting in
November that other opposition parties had nothing to offer
AD, which he claimed was the only party able to siphon votes
from Chavez's Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) party. Echoing
comments from other opposition parties, Coronil said that his
party was "talking" with other groups, but he did not predict
the formation of any new coalitions.

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Won't You Please, Please Help Us


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5. (C) Most AD officials appear to believe that reaching
out to sympathetic governments and parties abroad should be
the party's main focus. According to press, party president
Jesus Mendez Quijada listed disseminating among the
international community an alternative view of Venezuela's
political situation as one of two party goals. Bolivar,
describing AD as the opposition's only hope, made a direct
pitch to poloff in February for USG resources to help AD
confront the Chavez administration. An alternate deputy to
the National Assembly also protested to poloff that AD was
facing having to drop out of the Socialist International
movement because it could not afford its membership dues,
while the MVR planned to join with the support of some
European political parties. AD did not participate in a
meeting with Spanish President Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero
March 30 (SEPTEL),reportedly because AD leaders felt that
the party's historic ties with the Socialist International
and Zapatero's Socialist Worker's Party warranted a separate
session.

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Internal Discord
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6. (C) Disagreement over whether to participate in upcoming
elections has created tension among the AD faithful. Former
party president Canache and former secretary general Octavio
LePage wrote a letter urging the party to boycott future
elections unless the GOV provides objective representation on
the National Electoral Council, cleans up the National
Electoral Register, and guarantees a manual count of votes.
Party secretary general Ramos declared he would allow the AD
grassroots to decide whether to participate in elections, but
other AD interlocutors suggested the party had already
decided to compete. In addition to the party officials'
admission that the Amazonas election was the party's first
priority, the AD mayors registered their opposition to a
boycott in a meeting with the party executive March 7,
according to press.


7. (C) AD also has unresolved leadership issues. According
to press reports, former AD secretary general Humberto Celli
announced his resignation from the party's executive
committee, which he blasted for what he termed a
short-sighted strategy that allowed the administration to win
over voters from social classes who traditionally had
supported AD. Coronil complained to poloff and the USAID
country representative that his party allowed young, creative
officials no political space. Coronil said he had aligned
himself with the youth and women's wings of the party to push
for reform, but the AD old guard were not interested in
change. Naming two AD "youths" over 40 who deserved a chance
to lead the party, Coronil anticipated the review of most
party executive positions during internal party elections,
which could be delayed until after the August municipal
elections, according to Canache.


8. (C) AD leaders have fought to squelch rumors that some
of them are making backroom deals with the Chavez
administration. Ramos vowed in a November party meeting that
AD would not be co-opted, ruling that no one would talk to
MVR officials outside of public fora. According to press
reports, the executive committee on January 13 suspended from
party activities former Caracas Mayor Claudio Fermin for
declaring his opposition to the policy of avoiding the MVR.

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Comment
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9. (C) As AD officials are quick to assert, AD is the
largest opposition party and the only one with national
reach. Nonetheless, it is remarkably ill-prepared to
confront Chavismo. AD's custom of harping on Chavez's
anti-democratic tendencies will not attract votes from a
movement of former coup-plotters elected on a platform of
poverty alleviation. The pursuit of solidarity and resources
abroad reflects the party's sense of desperation. Even
though boycotting elections would generate more international


interest in its plight, AD is likely to run candidates this
year because the alternative would be to risk allowing
Chavez--along with smaller opposition parties--to absorb much
of the support it has left. The suspension of Fermin
probably is the party's attempt to distance itself from a
figure widely considered corrupt while tainting him as a
Chavez sympathizer.
Brownfield


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2005CARACA01011 - CONFIDENTIAL