ELECTION UPDATE: TORIES LIKELY TO SWEEP ALBERTA? NDP RETURN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CALGARY 000746

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAN

MOSCOW FOR TOM HUFFAKER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: TORIES LIKELY TO SWEEP ALBERTA? NDP RETURN
TO SASKATCHEWAN LOOKS HOPEFUL

REF: OTTAWA 3523

--------------
Alberta: A Tory Sweep?
--------------


1. Three weeks into the federal election campaign little has
changed with respect to our initial sense that Alberta, with 26
of its 28 seats held by the Conservative Party of Canada, will
unquestionably remain a Tory fortress. Federal party leaders
recently made their first brief foray into this Tory stronghold.
While many expect Conservative Party Leader Stephen Harper will
need to do little more than make a "token appearance," future
campaign appearances by Martin and Layton are likely to be few
and far in between. That said, two seats will be "hot" and up
for grabs in this province. Opinion is mixed on the outcome of
the most critical race in Edmonton Centre, the riding currently
held by Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan. In the past two
elections, McLellan has triumphed over her Conservative rivals
by the slimmest of margins, just a few hundred votes. While
some maintain that McLellan's time has come and she will lose
her seat to Conservative Party rival and former F-18 fighter
pilot Laurie Hawn, the editorial page editor for the Edmonton
Journal recently told post's PA Representative that he would
"bet a C-note (C$100) she keeps her seat." (Hawn lost to
McLellan in 2004 by less than 700 votes.) On the other hand,
Alberta Liberal MLA David Swann told CG on December 19 that he
sees an even greater uphill battle for McLellan, and any gains
by the Liberal Party are extremely unlikely. Swann, who won his
Calgary seat in this year's provincial election, believes that
Albertans have even less of an appetite for anything Liberal
primarily because of controversy surrounding the Gomery inquiry.
Similarly, Conservative Calgary MP Art Hanger told us that Hawn
will run a more aggressive campaign against McLellan and the
Tories are confident of unseating her this time around.


2. The only other Alberta race of note is Edmonton Beaumont,
where incumbent David Kilgour is stepping down, but not before
taking a final parting shot at his former party. Kilgour, who
left the Liberals to sit as an Independent in April 2005, said
the federal Liberals' behavior and the Prime Minister's comments
during the early days of the campaign (particularly with respect
to comments made in B.C. on Senate Reform) have offended him to
the point that he feels more aligned with the Conservatives.
Kilgour, who said Edmonton Beaumont voters like him, but concede
"it's time for a change," predicted that Conservative candidate
Mike Lake would handily win the riding. Kilgour squeaked by
Conservative candidate Tim Uppal last year with only 134 votes.
Harper was in Edmonton over the weekend campaigning for Lake.

-------------- --------------
--------------
Saskatchewan - NDP To Return A Mix of All Three Parties?
-------------- --------------
--------------


3. In the 2004 federal election, Saskatchewanians gave the
Tories 13 seats and the Liberals one - Finance Minister Ralph
Goodale. But for the first time in memory, the NDP claimed not
a single federal seat in that province, losing the two it had.
Four seats, including that of veteran NDP MP Lorne Nystrom, were
lost by such slim margins that the NDP in Saskatchewan believe
they have a chance to return to a mix of all three parties on
January 23. Nystrom, an MP first elected in 1968, believes
voters were swayed late in the campaign to "strategically vote,"
leading to vote-splitting. Nystrom lost his seat by a mere 881
votes in 2004, and claims electors marked their ballot for
Liberals in order to halt the Conservatives, pushing the NDP
out. Nystrom said he will remind electors that the only way to
stop the Conservatives in Saskatchewan is to stay with the NDP,
and he believes the vote will come down to who can get a "fair
deal" for Saskatchewan on the structure of equalization payments
and other issues. Saskatchewan NDP Premier Lorne Calvert has
been campaigning on the fair deal issue ever since Ottawa inked
an energy deal with Newfoundland and Nova Scotia. Shortly after
the election call, Calvert was quick to weigh in and announce
that he may take a more public role in the federal campaign
believing that, should the NDP once again hold the balance of
power in parliament, his province could wield more influence.

-------------- --------------
-------------- --------------
NWT Premier Lobbies Candidate "On-Side" With NWT-Ottawa
Revenue-Sharing
-------------- --------------
-------------- --------------


4. Meanwhile, Northwest Territories (NWT) Premier Joseph Handley
says he will consider switching support to another federal party
if it is willing to commit to northern social programs and a
resource revenue-sharing agreement. Premier Handley, in fact,
has written to leaders of the federal parties asking for their
position on four key issues including resource revenue-sharing,
base-plus funding agreements, the Mackenzie Gas pipeline, and
the Mackenzie Valley Highway. Premier Handley has asked for a
response from party leaders by January 9, 2006. While the NWT
has only one federal seat, which has been held by Liberal Ethel
Blondin-Andrew since 1988, all three parties have candidates in
the running. Blondin-Andrew inched by her NDP opponent in the
Western Arctic riding by a mere 53 votes in 2004.

--------------
Comment
--------------


5. Most observers agree that neither the parties nor the voters
will completely focus on the campaign until the holidays are
complete, and that's when candidates are expected to start
paying attention. The issues that resonate in this part of the
country largely parallel those found elsewhere - health care,
economy and corruption. While U.S- Canada relations is not high
in the minds of the voting public, the Federal Government's
failure to deal with "western alienation" continues to irk many
of the people here. That said, the best the Liberals can hope
for in Alberta is to retain their ace - Deputy Prime Minister
Anne McLellan, who is well liked and respected. McLellan has
always found a way to cobble together a winning coalition and it
would be a mistake to write her off just yet. One thing that
she has going for her is that she is liked and respected for her
hard work and constituent service, even by the Conservatives at
large. The NDP, in the meantime, may have their own ace - a
stronger NDP presence in Ottawa if candidates in Saskatchewan,
as well as the NWT, make some inroads, a scenario that appears
to be gaining more credibility as the campaign moves forward.
AHMED