FOUL FOWL FLU FIGHTERS

UNCLAS CALGARY 000706

SIPDIS

STATE FOR OEA/IHA (CRODDY, FOSTER, SINGER, DALEY),WHA/CAN
(NELSON),M/MED/DASHO
(TRIPLETT)

STATE PLEASE PASS TO DHHA AND CDC

DHHA FOR BILL STEIGER AND ROSE BROWNRIDGE, OFFICE OF GLOBAL
HEALTH

CDC FOR ROBERT BALDWIN, OFFICE OF GLOBAL HEALTH

USDA FOR APHIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: TBIO KSCA SOCI PREL CA WHO KSTH
SUBJECT: FOUL FOWL FLU FIGHTERS


1. (U) Taking advantage of the media frenzy generated by the
recent discoveries of a low pathogenic strain of avian flu in
British Columbia and California, the Calgary Health Region (CHR)
board announced on November 29 its strategy for combating
pandemic outbreaks. Experts predict that, in the event of the
avian flu's mutation into a form transmitted by human contact,
up to 743,000 Calgary residents could be infected, resulting in
a minimum of 1,600 deaths.


2. (U) The CHR's plan focuses resources on those traditionally
most vulnerable to pandemic outbreaks: children, the infirm, and
the elderly. If the disease appears to target the young, health
officials advise the closure of schools and day cares across
Calgary. Additionally, the plan calls for the stockpiling of two
to three months worth of all critical medical supplies in
Calgary, in case of regional supply line disruptions. CHR's
strategy has been questioned by some because of the potential
for huge staffing shortfalls in the event of a major health
crisis. The CHR plan would convert numerous hotels and
rehabilitation centers into makeshift influenza clinics, with
bed space for 8,500; health professionals predict many of their
staff simply wouldn't show up in the case of a pandemic, raising
concerns in a region already faced by chronic nursing shortages.


3. (U) Capital Health, CHR's counterpart in Edmonton, has been
developing a more comprehensive pandemic strategy since 1999.
Capital tests its own infrastructure regularly to ensure its
readiness in case of a major health crisis. Operation Outbreak,
earlier this year, simulated the impact of a pandemic in
Edmonton, with health care managers faced with overcrowded
clinics, staff numbers down by a third, and extremely
high-stress environments. Capital is also in the process of
preparing local corporations for the possibility of 37%
absenteeism rates during an outbreak. Capital's Dr. Gerry Predy
has pointed to the "disastrous mismanagement" of hurricane
relief in New Orleans as a possible outcome, if Edmonton does
not continue to build an effective model for dealing with
pandemics.


4. (U) Any action on the part of the CHR or Edmonton would
likely be in conjunction with the province, which recently
formulated its own strategy for minimizing the impact of a
pandemic. The Alberta government has purchased enough Tamiflu
for 260,000 people, which would be administered to those
segments of the population most affected, such as nursing homes
and health care workers. The province also has in place a
network of 48 health care workers named "Sentinels" whose job it
is to monitor flu cases across Alberta, and report back findings
to the Provincial Laboratory in Edmonton. Whether H5N1, current
bogeyman of the health community, or an as yet unidentified
viral strain mutates into a threat to humans, health experts
predict that it is only a matter of time before Alberta is faced
with a new pandemic. Calgary Mayor Dave Bronconnier says the
city, and the province, has no choice but to prepare now noting,
"(we must) ensure that in the event that this does take place,
Calgary is ready".
AHMED