Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05CALCUTTA72
2005-02-22 12:33:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Kolkata
Cable title:  

JHARKHAND POLLS HAND IN THE BALANCE

Tags:  PGOV IN 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CALCUTTA 000072 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR SA/INS AND INR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: JHARKHAND POLLS HAND IN THE BALANCE


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CALCUTTA 000072

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR SA/INS AND INR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: JHARKHAND POLLS HAND IN THE BALANCE



1. (SBU) SUMMARY. On February 23 India's newest state,
Jharkhand, will hold the third and final round of its first
State Assembly elections. Their outcome is anything but
certain. Going into the elections the state-governing National
Democratic Alliance (NDA),led by the Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP),appeared doomed. Its performance had fallen well below
expectations and it had been soundly trounced in the
national-level elections in 2004. Sensing blood, its opponent,
the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Congress Party
and its local allies the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and the
Rastriya Janata Dal (RJD),began to fight over the spoils before
the contesteven began. A a result, the BJP has revived at
least some chace of hanging on for another term and the UPA may
have missed a chance to further consolidate its naiona
position. It is a distinct possibility tht there will be no
clear-cut winner, meaning tha independents and smaller parties
could prove kigmakers for Jharkhand's next state government.
END SUMMARY.

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IMPACT: NDA RISKS MISSING A CHANCE TO EXTEND DOMINANCE
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2. (SBU) For the UPA government at the Center, having scored a
dramatic sweep of all but one of Jharkhand's Lok Sabha seats in
2004, the state Assembly elections were an opportunity to
deliver the BJP a decisive further blow. That may still happen,
but UPA infighting and lack of unity have given the BJP and the
NDA reason to hope that they may still pull out a win and
reverse the tide of defeats that have seen the party appear
less-and-less able to sustain credibility as a national-level
power. Yashwant Sinha, former Foreign Minister and currently a
Member of the Rajya Sabha, conveyed this view when he claimed:
"We will surely form the government again as people do not want
to create another Bihar in Jharkhand. Though the going is
tough, seeing the result of the last general elections, but this
assembly elections the NDA will be pleasantly surprised." Given
the plethora of parties and the willingness of many of them to
accept unlikely bedfellows in their search for power, the
post-election horse-trading may prove more interesting than the
elections themselves.

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ELECTORAL BACKGROUND: A NEW STATE VOTES
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3. (U) Jharkhand was established as a separate Indian state in
November 2000 when 18 districts were carved out of the state of
Bihar. For a number of years the tribal peoples of that region
had objected to their marginalization by the Bihar state
government in Patna and lobbied for the creation of a state of
their own. The most prominent leader of this movement was JMM
head Shibu Soren, know to his followers as "Guruji," currently a
Lok Sabha member serving as Minister of Coal in the UPA
government at the Center. In addition to containing most of
Bihar's tribal populations, these districts also contained
almost all of Bihar's substantial mineral wealth and industrial
facilities. Jharkhand's tribal population is still a minority,
but state politicians can no longer ignore a constituency that
comprises about a third of the state's population.


4. (U) The first-ever State Assembly elections are taking place
over three dates - February 3, 15 and 23. The voters will elect
81 Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) and the results are
expected to be announced on February 27.

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THE BJP-LED GOVERNMENT LOOKS VULNERABLE~
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5. (U) The current NDA coalition government is headed by the
BJP under the leadership of its young Chief Minister, Arjun
Munda, who took over from the state's first CM, Babulal Marandi,
after the latter lost the confidence of his cabinet. Going into
these elections, the NDA had a governing majority of 43 (31 BJP,
8 Janata Dal-United (JDU),4 independent/nominated) in a reduced
Assembly of 73. However, on the eve of the Assembly elections,
in an indication of how fickle party loyalties can be, four JDU
and one Independent MLA joined the Lalu Prasad-led RJD making it
the largest opposition party and raising the opposition numbers
to 35 (13 RJD, 10 JMM, 8 Congress, 4 Communists/independents).


6. (U) These defections represented the latest in a serious of
setbacks for the NDA. The most damaging had been the April 2004
national elections in which the UPA/allies took 13 of the
state's Lok Sabha seats (6 Congress, 4 JMM, 2 RJD, 1 Communist)
to just one single seat for the BJP. This was a dramatic swing
from the previous division of 11 BJP, 2 Congress and 1 JMM, and
even prominent national BJP leaders like then-Foreign Minister
Yashwant Sinha were soundly defeated.


7. (SBU) The widespread perception in Jharkhand is that the
current BJP-led government has not delivered on its promises.
While Jharkhand is the only state in eastern India not operating
on a budget deficit, most observers suggest this is due mostly
to the government's inability to utilize the resources it has
available to launch development projects. Digvijay Singh,
national General Secretary of the Congress Party, stressed this
point when he claimed: "Here the issue is infrastructure
development and Congress has been promising the voters Bijli
(electricity),Sadak (Road) and Paani (Water). The NDA
government has failed to provide all these in their four-year
term. Things will start moving easily when we have the UPA
government here too." Another ConGen contact likened
Jharkhand's first government to a kindergarten, pointing out
that the ministers in the current government totally lacked
experience, but warning that a new government would have the
same handicaps and could be even worse without the four-year
learning curve of the current regime.

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~BUT UPA SQUANDERS OPPORTUNITY BY INFIGHTING
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8. (SBU) There is little doubt that had the Congress, JMM and
RJD presented a united front in running against the NDA, they
would have come out clear winners in the contest. However,
sensing the weakness in the governing coalition, the three
parties squabbled among themselves for the dominant position in
what they assumed would be a UPA government. As a result, they
have lost the certainty of victory. The Congress and JMM
finally came to an agreement on seat-sharing at the cost of
alienating the RJD (and angering its leader, Lalu Prasad). As a
result, the RJD is running "triangular races" against Congress
or JMM candidates in a number of constituencies and even the JMM
and the Congress are locked in "friendly fights" in a few
constituencies. The danger of this indiscipline can be
demonstrated by the 1999 victory achieved by Babulal Marandi ,
who went on to became Jharkhand's first Chief Minister. A BJP
candidate, he was elected MLA in former Bihar's Bhagalpur
Constituency in 1999 with 36.87 percent of the vote, narrowly
edging the JMM candidate who got 36.02 percent. However, the
third place Congress candidate got 24.68 percent, and it is safe
to say that had he not been in the running the JMM would have
easily defeated Marandi.


9. (SBU) As damaging as the interparty conflict has been, the
front-running JMM is also battling serious internal problems.
Shibu Soren has made little secret of the fact that he would
rather be Chief Minister in Jharkhand than Coal Minister in New
Delhi. Sensing a rival in his longtime deputy Stephen Marandi,
he arranged for Marandi to be elected to the Rajya Sabha and
gave his son, Hemant Soren, the ticket for Marandi's traditional
Jharkhand constituency. Marandi has made his sense of betrayal
public and has responded by contesting as an independent against
Hemant Soren. Many of Shibu Soren's long-time supporters have
expressed dismay at this treatment of his old friend and ally
and at the apparent nepotism shown in his selection of Hemant as
a first-time candidate. (Soren's other son, Durga Soren, has a
longer history in JMM politics.)

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NAXALITES FAIL TO SPOIL THE PARTY
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10. (SBU) Although the revolutionary-Left Naxalites have a
widespread presence in Jharkhand, and had issued a call to
boycott the polls in at least seven districts, they have not had
much success in derailing the elections. On the eve of the
first polls they detonated a bomb that destroyed a police
vehicle killing six policemen and their driver. Beyond that,
they have had little impact. Journalist contacts allege that
there is a nexus between the Naxalites and the politicians in as
many as 30 constituencies. In the symbiotic relationship they
describe, the candidates promise protection for the militants
after the polls in exchange for protection from violence during
the campaign.

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COMMENT: AFTER THE ELECTION, THE SELECTION
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11. (SBU) Had the UPA followed their name and stayed "United,"
their victory seemed assured. Now, given the plethora of
parties, prognostication is difficult. Beyond the assurance
that neither the Congress nor the RJD will join the BJP in a
coalition government, most other combinations are at least
possible. The JMM is currently a Congress ally, but if the BJP
could offer Shibu Soren the Chief Ministership, and the Congress
could not, there appears little doubt that "Guruji" would cross
over to assume the crown. The multi-candidate races may also
produce a larger number of victorious independents. If the
election hangs in the balance, these and the smaller parties may
have a disproportionate say in the formation of the new state
government. For the UPA at the Center, Jharkhand was a chance
to deal the BJP yet another crushing blow. Should the NDA
capitalize on the UPA's infighting to steal a victory, the BJP
may well claim that it is finally on the rebound. END COMMENT.

SIBLEY