Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05CALCUTTA420
2005-11-22 15:13:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Kolkata
Cable title:  

NDA DECISIVELY WINS IN BIHAR

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PINR ASEC IN 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CALCUTTA 000420 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR SA/INS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ASEC IN
SUBJECT: NDA DECISIVELY WINS IN BIHAR

REF: A) CALCUTTA 00373; B) CALCUTTA 00387; C) CALCUTTA 00404; D)
LCUTTA 00417

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CALCUTTA 000420

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR SA/INS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ASEC IN
SUBJECT: NDA DECISIVELY WINS IN BIHAR

REF: A) CALCUTTA 00373; B) CALCUTTA 00387; C) CALCUTTA 00404; D)
LCUTTA 00417


1. (SBU) Summary: In November 22 voting results, the National
Democratic Alliance (NDA) of the Janata Dal (United) (JDU) and
the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) registered a landslide victory
in Bihar's State Assembly elections, winning more than the 122
seats needed for a governing majority. The defeat was a
stunning blow to the long-ruling Union Railway Minister Lalu
Prasad Yadav, his Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress
Party (Congress). The collapse of the RJD is attributed to a
number of factors: Ram Vilas Paswan's defection from the SDF,
splintering of the Muslim vote, disenchantment with Lalu's
record of corruption, and strict monitoring of the polls by the
Election Commssion (EC). Success in Bihar could rejuvenate the
beleaguered NDA, which faced a major setback in the 2004 general
election. The NDA now rules in virtually the entire central
India (except Uttar Pradesh) including Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa,
Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat. The loss of
Bihar will have no immediate impact at the national level for
the United Progressive Alliance (UPA),but it is one of many
cuts that may cumulatively weaken the coalition. End Summary.


2. (U) NDA has experienced a landslide victory in Bihar. By the
afternoon of November 22, the NDA had already won 146 seats,
more than the 122 required to form a State government in the
243-seat Legislative Assembly. For the first time in Bihar, the
NDA has defeated the RJD and Congress Secular Democratic Front
(SDF),which received only 66 seats. Chief Minister-Designate
Nitish Kumar's JDU, the NDA's dominant party, received 84 seats
to the BJP's 53 by late afternoon. In the SDF, the RJD, with 55
seats, far exceeded junior partner Congress with only 9. Kumar,
a former Union Railway Minister, will now be sworn-in as the new
Chief Minister for the second time. His earlier stint as Bihar
Chief Minister in March 2000 lasted just a week. Kumar's
victory brings to an end the 15-year rule of Lalu Yadav in the
State.


3. (SBU) The NDA received far more seats than exit polls had
predicted. Most polls anticipated only a slim lead of 115 to
119 seats for the NDA but with too few to form a government.

The NDA's significant gains were attributed to a number of
factors, but key was Union Steel, Chemical and Fertilizer
Minister Ram Vilas Paswan's refusal to join the SDF with his Lok
Janashakti Party (LJP). The LJP won had won only 11 seats by
late afternoon. Paswan's split from the SDF drew away much
needed votes and divided the critical Muslim vote - a key vote
bank for Lalu and his RJD. In addition, the JDU, though aligned
with the sectarian BJP, did pick up Muslim votes as well.
President of the All India Pasmanda Muslim Mahaz Anwar Ali said
he believed the Muslim vote had completely splintered. Director
of Asian Development Research Dr. Shaibal Gupta noted that the
Bihar electorate was also fed-up with the Lalu's poor record of
governance. He believed dissatisfaction with the lack of law
and order and public services cut across all castes and so Lalu
was not able to capitalize on his lower caste constituent base.
Finally, the EC was monitored polling very closely, which
limited the opportunity for the RJD to tamper with ballots - a
frequent accusation against the party in previous elections.
For RJD the only silver lining in a disappointing day was the
electoral victory of the RJD's lead candidate and Lalu's wife,
Rabri Devi.


4. (SBU) Victory in Bihar could rejuvenate the beleaguered NDA,
which faced a major setback in the 2004 general election. The
NDA now rules in virtually all of central India (except Uttar
Pradesh) including Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, Chattisgarh, Madhya
Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat. Bihar's State BJP President and
Member of Parliament Sushil Kumar Modi told Post that Lalu's
defeat in Bihar could "shake the Union government" since the UPA
allies may start looking for new alliances. He added, "The
people of Bihar are not fools. They have suffered misrule in
both the RJD-Congress as well as Buta Singh's Governor rule.
They have voted for us and have shown their resentment towards
those who are responsible for lawlessness in the State." The
UPA's imposition of Presidential rule after the indecisive
February election was also unpopular in Bihar and on being ruled
unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, has become a political
liability for the UPA.


5. (SBU) Paswan who emerged as a kingmaker during February
State elections, but lost ground this time, told media that "I
do accept that I lost, but my main aim of getting Lalu Yadav
defeated in Bihar is fulfilled." Even with his recent antics,
Paswan may remain in the UPA, because the Congress needs his and
Lalu's support in the next general election. The UPA needs
Paswan as an important Dalit leader; especially given the likely
defection of Dalit Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) Leader Mayawati in
Uttar Pradesh (UP).



6. (SBU) The NDA also hopes that UPA's loss in Bihar could pave
the way for a mid-term election in the country. Gyanendra
optimistically claimed, "Instability in the UPA could very well
go beyond control." He added that to weaken the UPA at the
Center, the Kumar government in Bihar may expedite the pending
corruption cases and charges against Lalu. However, political
analysts from Bihar feel that with the UPA showing signs of
weakness, the supporting Left parties, which had been playing
the role of the Opposition, will now moderate their attacks on
the UPA. The UPA may thus become a beneficiary of a unity in
adversity, winning greater support from its normally fractious
allies.

--------------
Role of Election Commission
--------------


7. (SBU) Holding free, fair and peaceful polls in Bihar was a
challenge for the EC. Prior to the beginning of polling process
in Bihar, the EC's Special Advisor K.J Rao mentioned that
holding elections in Bihar was tougher than elections in Jammu
and Kashmir, given the poor infrastructure, Maoist threat and
corruption. For the first time, the EC used digital cameras at
all the 41 counting centers to monitor the counting process.
The EC also photo-documented every stage of the counting process
from the unsealing of electronic voting machines (EVMs) to the
announcement of the results. To disseminate the results of the
counting instantly, the EC connected all the counting centers
via the internet. Also, 100,000 security forces had been
deployed for extra security at the counting centers.


8. (SBU) Chief Election Commissioner of India B.B. Tandon said
that holding assembly elections in Bihar was "challenging," and
he came out in strong defense of EC Advisor K.J. Rao, who has
been under attack from Congress and RJD in the wake of his tough
handling of poll irregularities. Bihar Chief Electoral Officer
N.K. Sinha told Post that "to hold elections in a peaceful, free
and fair manner in Bihar is a very difficult task. It was a big
challenge. Deleting the names of criminals (against whom the
non-bailable arrest warrants were pending for last six months)
from the electoral roles has helped. The election boycott call
given by Naxalites was also playing in our mind." The EC is now
planning to implement the "Bihar model" for West Bengal State
Assembly elections in May 2006.

--------------
Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) The NDA victory is a sign that voters, even in Bihar,
expect more from their government. The backward castes and
poor, who supported the RJD in the past, became frustrated with
Lalu's 15 years of empty promises. The UPA made a mistake in
assuming that political expediency in aligning with RJD would be
sufficient to win, failing to realize the groundswell of
dissatisfaction with the status quo in Bihar. The UPA's
miscalculation in imposing an unconstitutional Presidential rule
in the State only made matters worse by handing governance to a
corrupt Governor Buta Singh and further antagonizing the Bihari
voters and undermining the UPA's credibility. The Presidential
Rule in Bihar will continue to linger as political liability for
the UPA, with the Supreme Court's full decision coming out now
elections are over. The UPA's poor performance in Bihar may
become one of a thousand cuts that could eventually cripple the
coalition.
JARDINE