BIHAR'S FIRST DAY OF VOTING OFFERS NO CLEAR WINNER AND NO

UNCLAS CALCUTTA 000373

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SA/INS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI CASC IN
SUBJECT: BIHAR'S FIRST DAY OF VOTING OFFERS NO CLEAR WINNER AND NO
SERIOUS VIOLENCE


1. (U) Summary: On October 18, Bihar completed a relatively
peaceful first day of voting in its State elections. Voting
took place in 57 of Bihar's 243 constituencies. Television
and newspaper exit polls were contradictory, making predictions
difficult. Zee News television predicted an indecisive result
for the main contenders (the United Progressive Alliance (UPA)
and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)). However, Star News
television predicted a strong NDA win, lead by the exceptional
performance of the Janata Dal (United) JDU. On October 21,
Phase one of the voting will be completed in four
Maoist-affected areas. Phase II will begin on October 26. End
Summary.


2. (U) The first day of voting in 57 constituencies was
unusually peaceful for Bihar, with only one report of police
firing on an unruly crowd in Aurangabad district, killing one
person. During the February state elections, 24 deaths were
reported. Voting irregularities were also limited. Ninety-six
people were arrested, including four candidates - three from the
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD),for election violations. One
candidate was accused of smashing an electronic voting machine
and another candidate's bodyguard fired on a crowd of opposing
voters causing no injuries.


3. (U) News reports of exit polling varied widely. Star News
television predicted a huge lead for the NDA's JD(U),with 30
seats, with the UPA's RJD receiving only 19. Zee News
television predicted 28 seats for the RJD and 22 for the JD(U).
Newspapers were equally split. "The Times of India" wrote of a
"hung" assembly but "The Asian Age" wrote, "Lalu (RJD leader
Lalu Prasad Yadav) in trouble." All observes agreed that the
Lok Janata Party (LJP) was doing worse than last February. LJP
Leader Ram Vilas Paswan had hoped to create a viable alternative
to the UPA and NDA, but appears to have instead lost much of his
political base, primarily to the NDA. Twenty of his party's
Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs),elected in the
February election, are now running as NDA candidates. The
conflicting polling numbers make the election difficult to call
until the final results from all four election phases are
released on November 22.


4. (U) On October 21, voting will resume in four Maoist-affected
constituencies. The Election Commission (EC) wanted to delay
polling in these districts to ensure the presence of sufficient
law enforcement and security forces to protect the polling
stations from Maoist insurgents, who have demanded a boycott of
the election and threatened to attack voters and voting
officials. Phase II will begin on October 26 in 69
constituencies.


5. (U) Comment. Although, exit polls vary widely, there are a
few persistent themes in all the reports. The LJP is now very
weak and Union Minister for Steel, Chemicals and Fertilizers Ram
Vilas Paswan's future as a member of the UPA cabinet is bleak.
In addition, while it is still possible the JD(U) could make
major gains in this election from last February's results, no
poll's predict the same for the RJD. The RJD's prospects appear
to range from very bad to not very good. The most the party can
hope for is to retain a very slim majority, and this may not be
enough to allow it to form the government unless its allies do
well.

JARDINE