BIHAR STATE ASSEMBLY DISSOLVED

UNCLAS CALCUTTA 000206

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR SA/INS AND INR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: BIHAR STATE ASSEMBLY DISSOLVED

REF: CALCUTTA 000100


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In the early hours of May 23, following
Governor Buta Singh's recommendation, the United Progressive
Alliance (UPA) Government at the Center dissolved the Bihar
State Assembly. The State Assembly had previously been placed
under a state of "suspended animation" (in which elected
legislators cannot exercise their constitutional powers),
following the imposition of President's Rule on March 7, 2005 as
no party nor alliance won a clear majority in the February 2005
elections and none of the state's competing political factions
could cobble together a majority and form a popular government
(REFTEL Calcutta 000100). The UPA government made the decision
to head off the growing possibility that the opposition National
Democratic Alliance (NDA) could attract enough legislators from
other parties to break the logjam and take power. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) On May 22, the Bihar Governor recommended dissolution of
the assembly after a group of Lokjanshakti Party (LJP)
legislators broke with LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan and announced
their intention to back an NDA government led by Janata Dal
(United) [JD(U)] leader Nitish Kumar. Bihar Governor Buta Singh
had earlier confirmed that he had intelligence reports citing
rampant "horse-trading" by the NDA (offering cash or future
positions to wean away legislators) to attract LJP legislators.
On May 23, President APJ Abdul Kalam (while in Russia) accepted
the Cabinet's recommendation to dissolve the State Assembly of
Bihar. Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil said the UPA decision
was made to preclude the buying and selling of legislators by
unscrupulous political parties in the state.


3. (SBU) Calling the dissolution unconstitutional, NDA leaders
in Bihar have called for a statewide general strike on May 24 to
demand the immediate recall of the Governor. Member of
Parliament and Vice President of the Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP) Sushil Kumar Modi told Post that the recommendation to
dissolve the Assembly was made at "the behest of Union ministers
Ram Vilas Paswan and Lalu Prasad" to prevent Nitish Kumar from
forming an NDA government in the state. Union Home Minister
Patil confirmed that the Election Commission would begin
preparing for new elections, but observers in Bihar have noted
that elections are unlikely until after the seasonal monsoon
floods abate in September.


4. (SBU) COMMENT: LJP leader Paswan, who emerged as a potential
kingmaker after the February elections, has been trying to form
a non-BJP and a non-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) state government,
but could not come up with enough legislators to procure a
majority. LJP Legislators, frustrated at the logjam, revolted
and crossed over to the rival JD(U). The prospect that the NDA
could form the government in Bihar and hand a major defeat to
the UPA was enough to compel the usually feuding RJD leader and
Union Railway Minister Lalu Prasad and Union Steel Minister
Paswan to bury their differences and unite to keep the NDA out
of power. UPA sources in Delhi are confident that with
Congress support Lalu's RJD will return to power in new
elections. Observers told Post that the Election Commission is
unlikely to announce the date for a new election until at least
September 6, when the first six-month term of President's Rule
expires. END COMMENT.

This message has been cleared by Embassy New Delhi.


SHULTZ