INDIAN REACTION TO ULFA TERROR DESIGNATION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CALCUTTA 000176

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR S/CT AND SA/INS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV IN GOI
SUBJECT: INDIAN REACTION TO ULFA TERROR DESIGNATION


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The addition of the United Liberation Front of
Assam (ULFA) to the Other Selected Terrorist Organizations list
in the 2004 Country Reports on Terrorism has been widely
remarked by the press in India. A large majority of public
comments, as well as reactions from our private contacts, have
been positive, although some have suggested it was the right
move but long overdue. Others have seen it as part of a
geopolitical strategy to exert pressure on Bangladesh, where
some of the ULFA leaders are known to reside. A few have
denounced it as counterproductive to proposed peace talks
between the GOI and the ULFA, while a few others shrugged it off
as mere rhetoric with no implications at all. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Most responses to the ULFA being added to the Other
Selected Terrorist Organizations (OSTO) list were positive, with
speculation revolving mainly around the possible reasons that
prompted the move and the expected fallout. Most press reports
claimed that the main intention is to pressure Bangladesh
(usually without naming the country). A few reports pointed out
that the label was a result of the ULFA attacking civilians.
The influential Northeast India analyst Sanjoy Hazarika
commented in The Statesman that this would be seen by New Delhi
as a major gain in its campaign against violent insurgency in
the region and an acknowledgment for the first time by
Washington of India's security concerns in the Northeast. He
raised the question whether this happened "because the Americans
are now bringing Bangladesh surely but relentlessly into their
war on terror." He concluded that this could help the ULFA to
recognize that it has to come for talks, because "the time for
the drums of war is over."


3. (U) Anandabazar Patrika, a Bengali daily, reported that New
Delhi will be more cautious in its approach to the talks
proposal with the ULFA (conveyed via the Assamese author Indira
Goswami) after Washington has labeled the outfit "terrorist."
They claimed this is because New Delhi and Washington have an
agreement to work jointly against any kind of terrorist
activity. The television channel NDTV reported analysts' views
that incorporating ULFA (and others) on the terror list may have
a negative impact by raising the prestige of the organization
and giving it more status and bargaining power. Also, NDTV
suggested the move would have little or no direct impact on
those groups. The Sentinel, a daily from Assam, claimed that
ULFA Chairman A. Rajkhowa said the initiative for peace talks is
the Center's ploy prior to polls and that the U.S. tag is a move
by vested interests.


4. (SBU) The New Delhi-based Executive Editor of the South Asia
Terrorism Portal, www.satp.org , Dr. Ajai
Sahni, said he wholeheartedly supports including ULFA as an OSTO
as a means to keep the pressure on during political engagement;
when asked, he agreed that the listing helped demonstrate that
the U.S. does care about terrorism even when Americans are not
directly threatened. Sahni, an outspoken critic of last year's
Patterns of Global Terrorism report, indicated that his review
was likely to be more positive this year, in large measure
thanks to the inclusion of the ULFA.


5. (SBU) Assam Police's Intelligence Chief Khagen Sharma told
Post that this "good thing" was expected, since the ULFA had
clearly switched over from the insurgent to the terrorist mode
in 2004. He emphasized that there would be no adverse reaction
in India to the U.S. move - the ULFA is already a banned group
and its inclusion in the terror list will not have any major
impact in India. However he thought it could make a real
difference internationally by making it difficult for the ULFA
to garner support outside the country. Sharma said that ULFA
Chief Paresh Barua had once claimed that he had support from the
U.S. Another security official in Assam said that Barua may
feel the pressure and even have to leave Bangladesh. However,
he suggested most Assamese people were confused about the U.S.
step and a segment of Assamese society was unhappy about it.


6. (SBU) Assam's Congress Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi ruled out
the possibility of the inclusion affecting the process of
negotiation for initiating talks with the ULFA. He said that
the GOI has already established contact with the group and that
the U.S. declaration is nothing major. Assam Congress
spokesperson Bobeeta Sharma told Post that the timing of the tag
is puzzling since it comes at a time the peace talks may be
initiated. She also wondered what prompted the U.S. to take
this step, since it had not paid heed to the problem earlier
when the ULFA was more violent.


7. (SBU) Retired Lt. Gen. S.K. Sinha, currently the Governor of
Kashmir and until recently Governor of Assam, said the U.S.
decision was overdue and "should have come ten years before;" he
also criticized Bangladesh for supporting militancy in Northeast
India. West Bengal BJP President Tathagata Roy told Post that
the move is perfectly justified and should have been adopted
earlier. He claimed the ULFA has acted against the public
interest, jeopardized innocent lives, maintained contact with
militant Islamic groups, and is provided sanctuary by
Bangladesh. Roy mentioned the arms haul at Chittagong port
about a year ago as clearly indicating ULFA's involvement in the
arms trade. (Note: The consignee of these arms remains
uncertain, and is an ongoing subject of speculation in the
region.)


8. (SBU) COMMENT: While security officials and critics of
Bangladesh seem happy with the ULFA's inclusion in the list, the
Congress Party in Assam sees the announcement and its timing as
slightly inopportune. With state elections in Assam scheduled
for 2006, the Congress has to tread very cautiously on sensitive
issues, particularly militancy, where a residue of sympathy for
the ULFA's aims remains, even if there is little support for the
means it has employed. While the ULFA is undoubtedly the
biggest and best known terror group in the Northeast, the region
is riven by ethnic insurgencies, several of which use violence
against civilians as a tactic. The OSTO list will undoubtedly
be scrutinized in future years to see which other groups may or
may not be added and with what justification. END COMMENT.

SIBLEY