GOVERNMENT FORMED IN JHARKHAND -- TWO WEEKS LATER

UNCLAS CALCUTTA 000107

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS AND INR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT FORMED IN JHARKHAND -- TWO WEEKS LATER

REF: A) NEW DELHI 1519, B) NEW DELHI 1304, C) CALCUTTA 072


1. On March 15 the National Democratic Alliance (NDA),led by
Arjun Munda of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),won a vote of
confidence on the floor of the Jharkhand Assembly, thereby
establishing its governing majority. Munda had been Chief
Minister prior to the elections and resumed the post on March
12, after Shibu Soren of the Jharkhand Muchti Morcha (JMM) could
not win a vote of confidence in the Assembly as directed by the
Supreme Court. This brings an end to two weeks of post-election
frenzied politicking that had propelled Jharkhand into the
national spotlight. The NDA's majority, however, is razor-thin
and Munda's government is likely to be fragile.

2. The NDA margin was 40-37, with four MLA's not voting from
the 81-member Assembly. One non-voter was the Speaker, Inder
Singh Namdhari of the NDA, who was elected just prior to the
vote of confidence, and who only votes in cases of a tie. The
other three included Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) member
Kamlesh Singh, who was a minister in Shibu Soren's short-lived
government and is now a minister in Munda's government. Kamlesh
has spent the last several days in and out of the hospital
alleging cardiac problems while conveniently avoiding having to
violate party discipline by voting for the NDA. Of the other
two missing MLAs, independent Joba Manjhi may also be
contemplating crossing the aisle to the NDA, but Sukhram Oraon
(JMM) would not have that option due to the May 2004
anti-defection act.

3. COMMENT. Munda has successfully formed a government, but he
may find actual governance a daunting task. For one thing,
government ministries are the much-coveted political spoils of
victory, but a recent national policy allows Jharkhand to have
only 12 ministers (15 percent of 81). All five of the
independents who joined the NDA have been rewarded with
ministries as, apparently, has Kamlesh Singh. Add to that Chief
Minister Munda and only five slots remain for the faithful
long-time MLA's of the core governing coalition, the BJP and
Janata Dal (United) or JDU. Those passed over are likely to be
restive and resentful of the come-latelies unless Munda manages
the coalition very skillfully. END COMMENT.

SIBLEY