VERDICT ANTICIPATED IN OPPOSITION LEADER AYMAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 009467

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2015
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL KDEM EG
SUBJECT: VERDICT ANTICIPATED IN OPPOSITION LEADER AYMAN
NOUR'S TRIAL

REF: A. CAIRO 9349

B. CAIRO 9209

C. CAIRO 9053

Classified by Ambassador Francis Ricciardone for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) We expect that the December 24 session of opposition
leader Ayman Nour's forgery trial will result in a conviction
and harsh prison sentence, as Ayman Nour's family and defense
team anticipate. Nour, a diabetic, is reportedly maintaining
his hunger strike and remains in Torah Prison's infirmary.
Nour's family tells us that in addition to high acetone
levels in his blood, he is beginning to have (unspecified)
kidney problems. We have repeatedly warned our senior GOE
contacts that Nour's conviction will set back our bilateral
relationship. Should Nour be convicted, we will need to
continue to address his case candidly with the Egyptian
Government. Our public statement can be no less forthright,
but should find words to leave Mubarak a path to maneuver
himself out of a serious problem he has created for the
advance of Egyptian democracy -- and for his own domestic
standing. End summary.

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Trial Reaching Climax
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2. (C) After an eight hour session on December 12, during
which members of Nour's defense team spoke for about six
hours, Judge Gom'a adjourned the case to December 24.
Defense lawyers and Egyptian journalists covering the case
are convinced that the verdict will be issued on the 24th.
Members of Nour's defense team told poloff that they believed
the decision to read the verdict, which they believe will be
a conviction, on western Christmas Eve was deliberately timed
to minimize publicity in Washington and other western
capitals.

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Health Watch
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3. (C) Poloff met with Nour's wife, Gameela Ismail, lead
defense attorney Amir Salim, and defense attorney Ehab
al-Khouli, at their request, on the evening of December 19.
The three had just returned from a visit to Ayman Nour at
Torah Prison, just south of Cairo. Noting that Nour's
diabetes put him at particular risk, they confirmed to poloff
that they opposed Nour's decision to go on hunger strike. "I
don't think he can make it until December 24," Ismail stated.
On December 21, Ismail advised poloff that Nour was now
"experiencing kidney problems." We have no independent basis
on which to judge whether his medical condition puts him at
high or imminent risk of death.

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Our Reaction to a Conviction
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4. (C) There is every reason to believe that Nour will be
convicted on December 24 on charges of forging signatures on
the Ghad Party's articles of incorporation. He could receive
a jail term of between 3 and 11 years. After the
announcement of a verdict, the court has up to 30 days to
issue its written judgment. (In the Saad Eddin Ibrahim case,
Judge Gom'a took the full 30 days to issue the verdict in
writing.) The defense cannot file an appeal without
appending the written verdict. The length of time it takes
the appeals court to review the verdict is uncertain. Due to
the court system's massive backlog, some cases wait years to
be heard. In the case of Saad Eddin Ibrahim, the court took
four months to review the case and overturn the lower court's
verdict.


5. (C) Regardless of any merits to the case (and we can not
gainsay them),the arrest, prosecution, and potential
conviction of a political opposition leader, who received
more than 500,000 votes in the September presidential
elections, represents a step backward for Egypt's democratic
process. This inevitably will be a focus of our senior-level
official conversations, after the fact, as it has been to the
present.


6. (C) We will also need to issue a strong public statement
from Washington, underscoring American concerns about the
progress of democracy and the rule of law in Egypt in light
of this case. Nonetheless, both for the sake of resolution
and for Ayman Nour himself, our public remarks should attempt
to preserve for the GOE a plausible retreat from its blunder,
in the hope that Mubarak may come to recognize it as at least
that. We should keep foremost in our words the fact that
many Egyptian opinion leaders and ordinary citizens
themselves have expressed concern over the appearance of a
politically influenced miscarriage of justice in this case.
If we also emphasize concern for Nour's serious medical
condition, we may lay out a path on which Mubarak later could
retreat. Mubarak will want to appear to act for his own
noble or compassionate reasons, not on "instructions" or
under pressure from the USG.


7. (C) We are coordinating with the Cairo diplomatic missions
of G-7 and like-minded states (as the GOE is well aware).
The European Commission's Charge d'Affaires told poloff on
December 20 that Brussels would also take a dim view of
Nour's conviction and would react strongly to a conviction,
with a critical statement. The British Ambassador also has
conveyed this point repeatedly to senior contacts.

RICCIARDONE