EGYPT: OPPOSITION LEADER AYMAN NOUR'S TRIAL HEADS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 009209

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT: OPPOSITION LEADER AYMAN NOUR'S TRIAL HEADS
TOWARD CONCLUSION

REF: CAIRO 9053

Classified by ECPO Minister-Counselor Michael Corbin for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The trial of political opposition leader
Ayman Nour, supervised by Judge Adel Abdel-Salam Gom'a, has
been characterized by all of the irregularities and
inconsistencies of the first two trials of Saad Eddin Ibrahim
in 2001-2002, also tried by Judge Gom'a. The prosecution has
generally appeared inept, at best. The Judge initially
refused to allow the defense to make any arguments or call
any witnesses, but ultimately relented in the face of a
defense gambit that attracted embarrassing publicity. Farid
al-Deeb, a flamboyant "lawyer to the stars," offered on
December 10 a lengthy summation for the defense, detailing
the contention that the case is driven by political rather
than legal factors. The prosecution is expected to offer a
rebuttal during a session on December 12. A verdict could
come any time thereafter. Ultimately, we expect the judge to
live up to his reputation for political "reliability."
Whether the trial moves quickly or slowly, and toward a
conviction or an acquittal, will be based on considerations
other than the legal merits of the case. End summary.

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Inept Prosecution
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2. (C) The consensus among courtroom observers is that the
prosecution has been inept and at times incoherent in its
attempts to prove that Ayman Nour knowingly submitted
documents containing forged signatures in support of the Ghad
Party's license application in late 2004. At various times
during the proceedings, the prosecution has seemed content to
back up its assertions and allegations against Nour not with
exhibits and testimony, but by citing Quranic verses and
sayings of the Prophet Muhammad that deal with the punishment
of the corrupt and the wicked.


3. (C) A particularly apt example of the prosecution's
ineptitude came on November 28, when a Notary Public called
as a witness for the prosecution testified that all three
Ghad Party documents she had examined were legal and in
order. Apparently caught off guard, the prosecutor asked
her, in an exasperated tone, about "the other 11 documents -
didn't you see forged signatures on them?" The Notary Public
replied calmly: "I was given three documents to examine and
all three were legal and in order." After the session, the
prosecutor was seen yelling at the witness, following her
into the lobby.

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An Arbitrary Bench
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4. (C) Judge Adel Abdel Salam Gom'a's management of the case
to date has been arbitrary and unpredictable. During several
sessions in November, he consistently ignored any and all
defense motions, and showed no inclination to even allow the
defense to call any witnesses. On November 29, Nour's entire
defense team announced in exasperation that they were
resigning en masse. The dramatic move prompted headlines in
several independent Egyptian dailies. The defense team's
resignation was a gambit which apparently succeeded in its
aim. Defense lawyers showed up for the November 30 session
and found an uncharacteristically amiable Judge Gom'a happy
to allow them to call witnesses. Yet Gom'a surprised
observers again with his December 5 order that Nour be
remanded to custody, prompting predictions that a conviction
and jail sentence were certain to be meeted out at the next
hearing - on December 10 (reftel). Again, these predictions
did not come to pass.


5. (C) It remains unclear whether the statements of Ayman
Ismail Hassan, a.k.a. "defendant number 3," have been
admitted into the official court record. Hassan told the
court in June that he had been coerced by prosecutors into
signing an affidavit incriminating Nour, prompting shouts of
vindication from Nour and his supporters. However, as of
December 10, no one on the defense team could tell poloff for
certain whether Hassan's recantation had been officially
recorded by the court. In any case, according to Nour's lead
defense attorney, GOE retaliation against Hassan for his
embarrassing revelation was harsh. He is currently being
housed in cells normally reserved for condemned prisioners,
lawyer Amir Salem claimed.

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Defense Summation: A Political, not Legal Case
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6. (SBU) The defense presented its summation during a five
hour session on December 10. Hundreds of riot police watched
over about 300 Nour supporters gathered in front of the
courthouse. The crowd's pro-Nour and anti-Mubarak chants
were clearly audible inside the courtroom. Poloffs from the
U.S., Sweden, and Norway attended the hearing, as did dozens
of Egyptian journalists and correspondents from al-Jazeera,
al-Arabiya, al-Hurra, and even an Iranian satellite news
channel.


7. (C) Farid al-Deeb, one of Cairo's most celebrated
attorneys, offered a lengthy, detailed, and often flamboyant
review of the evolution of the criminal case against Nour,
arguing that the timing, nature, and procedures followed in
the case all proved that political rather than legal factors
were the driving elements. Ultimately, al-Deeb asserted, the
case against Nour constitutes an abuse of the judicial system
by politicians intent on taking revenge on him.
Interestingly, al-Deeb eagerly and frequently repeated his
view that President Mubarak himself was not involved in the
efforts of unnamed senior officials to destroy Nour.

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Prognosis
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8. (C) The prosecution will offer a rebuttal to Farid
al-Deeb's summation on December 12. It is unknown whether
lawyers for Nour's six co-defendants will also be allowed
additional time, or if the judge will retire to contemplate a
verdict after the prosecution's rebuttal. A verdict could
come on December 12, or sometime later. We do not believe
this case will be decided on its legal merits. Based on
Judge Gom'a's handling of the case so far, and his conduct of
Saad Eddin Ibrahim's two trials in 2001 and 2002, we believe
Judge Gom'a will live up to his reputation for political
"reliablity." Ultimately, therefore, whether the judge
moves quickly or slowly, and toward a conviction or an
acquittal, will be based on considerations other than the
legal merits of the case.


RICCIARDONE