EGYPT: OPPOSITION LEADER NOUR REMANDED TO CUSTODY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 009053

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT: OPPOSITION LEADER NOUR REMANDED TO CUSTODY

REF: CAIRO 8034

Classified by Ambassador Francis Ricciardone for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) Judge Adel Abdel Salam Gom'a ordered opposition leader
Ayman Nour remanded to custody on December 5 until a December
10 hearing. Amir Salim, Nour's lead defense attorney, told
the media he presumed the detention order was a prequel to a
conviction and prison sentence. In late November meetings
with poloff and Staffdel Grove, Nour had predicted that his
conviction and imprisonment were imminent. The Embassy has
repeatedly conveyed its concerns, at both senior and working
levels of the GOE. The GOE maintains that Nour's case is a
routine criminal matter. Our public remarks need to
communicate our concern that his detention sends the wrong
message about democratic reform in Egypt.

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Embassy Engagement
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2. (C) In the past week, Embassy Cairo has raised the Nour
case with the GOE, at both senior and working levels to
convey concern that his incarceration would send a negative
signal for democratic reform and could damage the
relationship:

-- During a December 5 meeting with Egyptian Intelligence
Chief Omar Soliman (septel - notal),The Ambassador warned
that Nour's imprisonment could have negative repercussions
for Egypt's relationship with the U.S. Imprisoning
opposition leaders makes Egypt look weak, not strong. The
Ambassador also predicted to Soliman that if Nour is handed a
jail sentence he will become an attraction "like the
pyramids" for high profile USG visitors - an outcome likely
to embarrass the GOE.

-- On December 1, the Ambassador also cautioned Defense
Minister Tantawi, on the margins of the annual Military
Cooperation Council meetings, that Washington was watching
the Ayman Nour trial and that a conviction and imprisonment
would likely be perceived as political and create tensions in
the bilateral relationship.

-- Similarly, Nour's case came up during Staffdel Grove's
December 1 meeting with four senior advisors to Defense
Minister Tantawi. Asked for his candid impressions of
Egypt's progress on political reform, Grove told his Egyptian
hosts that Washington had noted with concern recent trial of
a prominent political dissident, adding that his conviction
and imprisonment could have a negative impact on other
aspects of the bilateral relationship, including the military
assistance package that had just been under discussion.

-- Also on December 1, in a meeting on other issues, the DCM
raised the Ayman Nour case with Presidential Foreign Policy
Advisor and Spokesman, Soliman Awad. The DCM said the USG
has no affinity for Nour, but a conviction and incarceration
would draw criticism and fuel skepticism in Washington over
Egypt,s political reforms. Awad, visibly stiffening,
replied that the Ayman Nour case is not an appropriate topic
for U.S.-Egyptian bilateral relations. Awad continued that
Nour has received a fair trial with the "best lawyers money
can buy." He has been able to call witnesses and writes
about their court testimony in his newspaper every day.
Mubarak, he said, would never acknowledge linkage between
Nour and U.S. interests. He can tolerate criticism from the
press and civil society but if Nour was swept into the
discussion of the FTA, for example, Mubarak would simply tell
Trade Minister Rashid to drop the FTA. "I have been with
this President a year; I have shown him the international
press reports on Nour. He always says that he is not
interested. He would just tell Rashid to drop it; it's not
worth it."

-- Separately, ECPO Minister-Counselor made similar points on
the Nour case to the Assistant Foreign Minister for Legal
Affairs during an early December meeting. ECPO Counselor
also cautioned a principal aide to Gamal Mubarak on December
5 that Nour's conviction and imprisonment would almost
inevitably complicate the bilateral relationship.

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Our Public Reaction
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3. (C) Nour has not yet been convicted, and an acquital,
though unlikely, is still possible. We will want to hold in
reserve our strongest language for if and when he is
convicted, but we should nonetheless go on the record as soon
as possible with our concerns. We recommend language (on an
"if asked" basis) along the following lines:
BEGIN TEXT

-- We understand that the judge presiding over the Ayman Nour
case ordered that Nour be remanded to custody pending a
hearing on December 10.

-- Nour's detention today raises serious concerns about the
path of political reform in Egypt.

-- Whatever the merits of this particular case, the
imprisonment of a prominent and credible political opposition
leader risks sending the wrong signal about democracy and
freedom.

-- We will withhold further comment pending a verdict.
END TEXT

Background:
-- Ayman Nour won 8 percent of the vote in September's
historic presidential election, the first time the Egyptian
people had the opportunity to vote in a competitive
presidential election.

-- The Government of Egypt has stressed its desire to see a
credible political opposition develop.


RICCIARDONE