KEY NDP REFORM FIGURE DEEMS PARLIAMENTARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 008876

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NSC STAFF FOR SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: KEY NDP REFORM FIGURE DEEMS PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS "MAJOR SETBACK" FOR REFORMERS.


Classified by ECPO Minister Counselor Michael Corbin for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) In our first discussion with leading NDP reformer
Hossam Badrawi since he lost his run-off race for re-election
to Parliament, Badrawi alleged he lost as a result of NDP
corruption. He said that the parliamentary elections are a
major setback to the reform wing of the ruling party.
Badrawi argued that the "Old Guard" of the party--embodied by
such men as Safwat El-Sherif, Kamal El-Shazly, and Zakaria
Azmy--is ascendant. The success of the Old Guard and the
Muslim Brotherhood, predicted Badrawi, has set up a looming
parliamentary confrontation that the Old Guard will be
hard-pressed to win. End summary.

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How the Old Guard Eliminated a Reformer
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2. (C) According to Badrawi, who met with poloff on
November 23, the NDP Old Guard had long been gunning for him
due to his outspoken support for reform within the party and
government. (Note: Badrawi, a regular interlocutor for
Embassy and visiting USG officials, has been a leading light
in the reform wing of the NDP, both through his role as an
active parliamentarian since 2000 and as a member of the
Policies Committee chaired by Gamal Mubarak. End note.)
Badrawi said that his loss, to Hisham Mustafa Khalil (son of
former PM Moustafa Khalil),was assured by the fact that the
two biggest voting blocs in the Qasr Al-Nil district of Cairo
(including the Embassy's Garden City neighborhood) are
controlled by stalwarts of the Old Guard. (Note: Khalil did
not secure the NDP's nomination during the October 2005
candidate selection process. He briefly left the party to
run as an "independent" against Badrawi, but he has indicated
that he will rejoin the ruling party in the new parliament.
End note.) Former Minister of Information, and current
Secretary General of the Party Safwat El-Sherif relied on his

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nephew, who is in charge of the Television division of the
Egyptian Radio and Television Union (ERTU),to deliver votes
for Badrawi's opponent, Khalil. In addition, said Badrawi,
Khalil's cousin is the director of Misr Insurance, the
national insurance company, which is also located in Qasr
Al-Nil. This cousin orchestrated mass voting by Misr
Insurance employees for Khalil.


3. (C) Badrawi said that he planned to make no public
comment until the end of the parliamentary elections. He
said that he and other like-minded reformers needed to
determine if there was still a place for them within the
party, or if they should instead consider some sort of new
political reform movement outside of the NDP to challenge the
dominance of the Old Guard. Badrawi noted that breaking with
the NDP, and with the "rules" of politics in Egypt, was not a
decision he could take lightly. He said that the GOE's
efforts against Ayman Nour were indicative of the backlash
that such a move could provoke. Badrawi said that he wife is
urging him to consider carefully if he wishes to challenge
the NDP, "because they can hurt you, they can hurt your
family, and they can ruin your business."

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Whither the MB?
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4. (C) Badrawi said that he did not think that the violence
in Round Two of the elections on November 20 had resulted
from a central, tactical decision. Rather, he said, the
surprising MB victories in Round One had "crossed a redline"
and unleashed a violent reaction at the governorate and
constituency level as local party leaders realized that their
perks and prerogatives were suddenly under serious threat.
Badrawi said it was not clear that the GOE would be able to
control this violent reaction of its cadres in the field, and
he worried that the runoff, scheduled for Saturday, November
26, "will be ugly."


5. (C) Badrawi predicted that the MB would win nearly 100
seats in the new Parliament. He said that he is deeply
worried that the battle lines in the new Parliament will be
almost entirely between the MB--who have campaigned largely
as opponents of corruption and as potential providers of
public services to frustrated voters--and the Old Guard of
the NDP. The Old Guard, said Badrawi, is widely believed to
be corrupt and unwilling to serve its constituents, except in
exchange for bribes. As such, the Old Guard will be unable
to counter the MB's arguments in Parliamentary debates. The
result of this contest, said Badrawi, will be that the MB's
electoral appeal will only increase in future.

6. (C) Badrawi, reprising an argument he has made to us
previously, said that a key question in his mind about the MB
is the degree to which the reformist wing of the organization
might be able to prevail over the conservative older
generation. Badrawi said that he thought some of the younger
generation, like Abdel Moneim Abdul Fetouh (with whom Badrawi
studied in medical school) and Essam El-Erian, were genuine
is their commitment to democracy and political pluralism, but
he worried that many others in the movement, including its
most senior leaders, are only engaging in "taqiyya" (i.e.,
religiously permissible dissimulation) as they mouth their
commitment to democracy, but instead plot to implement
Sharia'.

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What's Going on Here?
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7. (C) Linking his own electoral defeat to the broader
situation, Badrawi argued that Egypt is witnessing a backlash
of the NDP's Old Guard, led by such figures as Sherif,
Shazly, and Azmy, against the reformist wing of the party,
led by Gamal Mubarak. According to Badrawi, "only an idiot"
would try to deny the evidence that the Old Guard is behind
this setback to reform. Badrawi said the Old Guard is
motivated by money, power, and "the simple fact that they are
used to controlling the situation." Gamal Mubarak and his
reform project are now "injured," said Badrawi. In Badrawi's
analysis, the Old Guard had not been displeased by the
initial results of the parliamentary elections, since the MB
gains presented a stark choice between the NDP's putative
stability (and secularism) and the Islamism of the MB.
Badrawi allowed that the Old Guard was nevertheless surprised
by the depth of support for the MB, and that elements in the
Old Guard were now worried that the newly-empowered MB may be
more difficult to control than initially anticipated.


8. (C) Badrawi blamed the current situation on a
combination of causes. Within the NDP, there had been
"simple mismanagement" and lack of discipline that had
allowed party members running as independents to challenge
official party nominees. Badrawi further opined that as long
as the Party maintained Old Guard figures like Sherif and
Shazly in positions of power, their malign influence on
reform would continue to be felt. Finally, said Badrawi, he
placed part of the blame squarely on the presidency. Between
President Mubarak's novel, alebit unsurprising, victory on
September 7 and the start of the parliamentary elections, the
President had squandered a major opportunity to lead change.
Such new, fresh action might have had a major "coat-tails"
effect for the NDP's official candidates, who included a
number of reformists, along with Old Guard figures like
Shazly, Azmy, and Housing Minister Soliman. Instead, Mubarak
had lain low, and voters, who might have had hopes that the
NDP really was changing, were left to face the familiar
recipe of inaction and neglect by the party and the
government.

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A New Cabinet
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9. (C) Badrawi also noted that he worried that the odds
were diminishing that the new cabinet, likely to be named
soon after the installation of the new Parliament on December
13, would include more reformers. Badrawi said that the
limited and largely economic reforms of the Nazif cabinet
desperately needed to be expanded in the next government.
Nazif's small circles of reformers, including Trade Minister
Rachid, Finance Minister Yusuf Boutros Ghali, and Investment
Minister Mohieldin, need to be joined by more like-minded
reformers in other ministries. As things stand currently,
their reform aspirations are limited by Old Guard control of
such key ministries as Housing, Supply, Military Production,
Defense, and Interior. It is not possible, Badrawi argued,
for there to be more thorough economic reform, and needed
political reform, while these ministers remain in the control
of the Old Guard.

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Comment
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10. (C) Badrawi is clearly shaken by his electoral loss,
which colors his remarks, but as a key NDP advocate of
reform, his analysis--that the NDP Old Guard and the MB are
the only clear winners so far--bears serious consideration.
As the rest of the parliamentary poll results emerge, it will
be crucial to test the bleak hypothesis that Badrawi has
presented. End comment.

RICCIARDONE