THE BELL RINGS FOR ROUND TWO OF EGYPT'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 008745

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM EG
SUBJECT: THE BELL RINGS FOR ROUND TWO OF EGYPT'S
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

REF: CAIRO 8566 AND PREVIOUS

Classified by DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Egypt's second round of parliamentary elections--in
Alexandria, and eight other governorates, where approximately
1700 candidates are competing for 144 seats--were conducted
on November 20 amidst GOE arrests of Muslim Brotherhood
activists and multiple reports of attacks by NDP "bullies" on
supporters of MB candidates. Official results will not be
available before November 21, and we expect that as with the
first round, more than half of the races will be go to
run-offs. Early indications on election day are that NDP
activists at the governorate level are doing what they can,
both legally and extra-legally, to avoid a repeat of the MB's
dramatic first round parliamentary gains. Domestic monitors
have also faced harassment and some violence from NDP
supporters. As in the first round, the security forces have
taken a neutral role, but they were not successful in
controlling violence in some cases. The Ambassador called
Minister of Investment (and NDP reformist),Mahmoud
Mohieldin, to convey USG concern about the violence.
Mohieldin promised to convey our message in party corridors.
The Ambassador also reached out to Gamal Mubarak and left the
same message with a senior aide. Minister of Justice Aboul
Leil gave a press conference at 1900 local time in which he
laid the blame for the violence squarely on the MB and
criticized the satellite channels for mis-reporting. End
summary.

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The Gloves Come Off
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2. (C) The day started with reports carried by the local
and international media of 200-300 arrests, depending on the
source, of Muslim Brotherhood activists in five of the nine
governorates where voting is taking place. The Independent
Coalition on Election Monitoring (ICEM, which is supported by
USAID and MEPI funding, as well as technical assistance from
NDI and IRI) described the arrests as "systematic" and said
that they targeted MB poll-watchers and candidate agents.
Comment: Arrests of these MB activists presumably would
weaken the MB's ability to detect and report fraud in
particular races. End comment.

Additional violations reported by ICEM, which said they had
about 1500 monitors in the field, included the following:

--Polls opened late in 65 percent of the stations observed.

--Restrictions continue to be imposed on domestic observers,
including wide-scale denial of access to polling stations, as
well as an instance of physical assaults on a two observers
by NDP supporters in Ismailia.

--Attacks by NDP supporters ("Beltaguin," in Arabic, which
can be translated as "bullies" or "thugs") on independent/MB
supporters in a number of locations, especially in
Alexandria, but also in Gharbiya, Ismailia, and Port Said.

--Widespread, ongoing campaigning by supporters of all
candidates, including immediately outside polling stations,
which is outlawed.

--In a report issued at 1600 hours local time, ICEM reported
that violent incidents appeared to be increasing over the
course of the day. ICEM alleged that there had been at least
two fatalities in Alexandria and multiple other incidents
around the country of election-day violence. ICEM asserted
that "As the election process unfolds, it is becoming obvious
that there is an organized campaign of violence with little
or no effective police intervention or prevention."

--Also late in the day, the Egyptian Association for
Supporting Democracy (EASD, a MEPI grantee) issued a
statement condemning assaults by NDP thugs on its chairman,
Hamada Mansoor, a regular Embassy contact. EASD also charged
that at least eight other EASD monitors had been beaten in
Alexandria, Beheira, Port Said, and Qena.


3. (C) Emboffs deployed on November 20 to seven of the
nine governorates where elections are taking place during the
second round. (Emboffs assessed the polls in Alexandria,
Beheira, Qalubiya, Gharbiya, Suez, Ismailia, and Fayoum. We
did not visit Port Said or Qena.) Our information about
problems with this round of voting tracks closely with the
initial reports released by domestic monitors.


4. (C) Emboffs in the field collected many reports of
irregularities and violence, although voting proceeded
smoothly in some governorates, notably Suez. Problems noted
by emboffs included voting list errors, vote buying,
assaults, illegal campaigning, and intimidation. Police and
others did not appear to take sides in the contests we
observed, but in some cases they also did not take measures
to contain violence or otherwise ensure the rule of law. A
summary of the problems we either observed or received
reliable information about includes the following:

--Thugs in Alexandria intimidated non-NDP voters and
assaulted a domestic observer who was gathering information
on NDP activists paying LE 50 per vote in the Mina Al-Bassal
district.

--NDP activists at polling stations in Alexandria's Dukhaila
district engaged in a "revolving ballots" scam, which
entailed providing prospective voters with pre-marked ballots
which the voters smuggled into the polling station. In the
privacy of the voting booth, voters would pocket the blank
ballots supplied by the voting officials. They would then
deposit the pre-filled ballots in the ballot box. Upon
exiting the polling station they would exchange their
remaining blank ballots for payment.

--Emboffs in Alexandria said that there have been reports of
several violent deaths linked to the election. (Al-Jazeera
is reporting that one Mohammad Khalil, a driver for
NDP-dissident candidate Hassan Hussain Hassan was killed by
supporters of the official NDP candidate.)

--Emboff in Ismailia observed publicly-owned transport
vehicles, some from as far away as Giza and Cairo, being used
to bus voters to the polls, presumably to vote for the NDP
candidate.

--Emboff in Ismailia encountered multiple Muslim Brotherhood
supporters outside various polling stations who reported that
roving bands of NDP thugs were moving about the city and
attacking MB activists. Several MB activists displayed the
wounds they had received from the NDP men. One man pulled
back his collar to reveal a gash with 13 fresh stitches which
he said had been inflicted during the morning's violence.

--Port Said appeared to be particularly violent. An
International Republican Institute (IRI) visitor suggested
that the security services were using clubs to attack MB
activists. The IRI visitor reported that he was departing
Port Said due to concerns about the violence.

--In the Abu Rish district of Beheira province, where MB
heavyweight Gamal Hashmat reportedly "owns the streets,"
despite a major challenge from NDP parliamentary leader
Mustafa Fiqqi, police used tear-gas to disperse a crowd of
several hundred MB voters who were seeking to access the
ballot station. International journalists (including the LA
Times correspondent) and a representative from the
International Crisis Group witnessed the tear-gassing of the
MB voters.

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The MB Trying to Go Toe-to-Toe?
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5. (C) The MB cadres have again made their mark by their
organization and logistics. Their activists were positioned
outside most stations where MB candidates were running, using
computerized voting lists to assist voters. In Ismailia, MB
activists carrying banners outside of several stations
complained that they had been set upon by women thugs from
the NDP who had ripped the banners and placards from their
hands. They noted that it would not have been "honorable" to
respond to such assaults by women.


6. (C) There have also been sporadic reports of MB
activists getting the better of NDP thugs, including in
clashes in Beheira, but the overwhelming majority of reports
of violence suggest that the MB has not, as a rule, initiated
the violence that has occurred.

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Chairman of Parliamentary Elections Commission Speaks
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7. (SBU) In televised press conference at 1900 hours local,
Justice Minister Aboul Leil, who also heads the Parliamentary
Elections Commission, asserted that MB activists had been the
cause of the clashes. He also criticized the international
Arab satellite channels for "mis-reporting."
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Comment


8. (C) The MB's gains in round one appear to have surprised
the GOE and the NDP. Several MB commentators opined today
that the NDP is seeking to avoid the high percentage of
runoffs that it faced in round one, and thus has gone on the
attack early in round two. The official results of the
November 20 elections should be available on November 21. We
expect that any races that do go to runoffs will witness a
continuation of the emotion and violence that we have already
witnessed at the start of round two.


9. (C) The Ambassador called Investment Minister Mohieldin
on the afternoon of November 20 to express concern about the
reports of violence. Mohieldin countered that the MB had
also played a role in the fighting at the polls throughout
the day. Mohieldin urged the Ambassador to withhold judgment
until a more thorough investigation could be conducted, but
he promised to relay the Ambassador's concerns to other NDP
leaders. The Ambassador also placed a call to NDP Policies
Committee Chairman Gamal Mubarak who was unavailable. Karim
Haggag, Gamal's foreign policy advisor, promised to convey
our concerns to his boss. End comment.


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