EGYPT ELECTIONS ROUND 2: THE VIEW FROM ALEXANDRIA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 008702

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FROM APP ALEXANDRIA

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TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT ELECTIONS ROUND 2: THE VIEW FROM ALEXANDRIA

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1. (SBU) Summary: Alexandria governorate, home to Egypt,s
second largest city, is among those voting in the second
round of parliamentary polls November 20. Significant
portions of the coastal city are considered strongholds of
the Muslim Brotherhood. The ruling National Democratic Party
did not fare well in the 2000 cycle, winning just six of
twenty-two possible seats (though nine of the "independent"
victors returned to NDP ranks shortly following the 2000
election). With a number of well-financed and well organized
candidates, the NDP is betting it will fare better this time
around. As elsewhere in Egypt, the MB appears the most
effective opposition, with the recognized opposition parties
coalition generally ineffective in generating popular
enthusiasm as an alternative to the NDP or MB messages. Of
particular interest are races in the Montaza and Raml
districts, both MB strongholds, and a race in the Ghorbal
district, where Coptic-Islamist tensions remain high in the
aftermath of sectarian riots during Ramadan. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Alexandrians join voters from seven other Egyptian
governorates (Beheira, Gharbiyya, Qalyoubia, Fayyoum, Qena,
Suez, and Ismailia) in the second round of parliamentary
elections November 20. Once the home of a thriving
expatriate community scarcely connected to the affairs of
Cairo, Alexandria is known for an independent political
streak that has in recent years manifested itself in
increasingly strong support for the Muslim Brotherhood. NDP
nominees fared poorly in Alexandria in the 2000 election
cycle (winning just six of twenty-two possible seats),though
nine of the victorious independents in that election
subsequently joined the parliament as NDP representatives.
This year, the election cycle has been energized by several
cases of NDP infighting and Coptic-Muslim riots.

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NDP Attempts to Avoid Repeat of 2000 Disappointment
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3. (SBU) Of the ruling NDP,s fifteen current deputies from
Alexandria (out of 22 total seats),the party re-nominated
just eight. A number of those overlooked by the NDP have
decided to run anyway, as independents. NDP Alexandria
Chairman Said Dakkak told Alexandria Principal Officer that
the NDP nomination process for this election cycle was driven
by the party-wide reform process begun in 2002 and led by
Gamal Mubarak. The party sought strong (and/or
well-financed) candidates for each of the twenty-two seats
available, which meant in some cases casting off sitting
MP's. The situation presents a number of cases whereby
current and former NDP members may cancel each other's votes,
potentially leaving the field to independents or the MB.


4. (SBU) One such example is in the Montaza district, where
the NDP nominated University of Alexandria President (and
former Chairman of the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs
Committee) Mohammad Abdellah instead of the party,s current
holder of the seat, MP Ali Seif, a prominent businessman.
Seif declined to withdraw from the election and has brought
his considerable resources to bear as an independent
candidate. The district, which covers the eastern sector of
the city including sprawling suburbs packed with low-income
migrants from the countryside, is known as an MB stronghold
(the current holder of the worker seat is an independent
affiliated with the MB). Abdellah, who is a major figure in
Alexandria and within the NDP, is rumored to have brokered a
deal with the MB to divide the Professional and Worker seats
in the district again between the NDP and MB (the MB declined
to run a candidate for the Professional seat). But the
battle between Seif and Abdellah opens the way for a possible
victory of two MB "Worker" candidates. Given the stakes
involved in this race, pitting an NDP heavyweight against the
spurned, and well-financed current holder of the seat, with
the possibility of the MB picking up both seats, Muntaza will
be an important result to watch.


5. (SBU) Elsewhere, the NDP has nominated a number of
wealthy businessmen capable of self financing their own (and
their "worker" co-nominees') campaigns, including Khalid Abu
Ismael, Chairman of the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of
Commerce, in Raml; Mohammad Mosilhi, a shipping magnate, in
Bab Sharq; and Khalid Abhed Khairy, Chairman of a large
family business concern and son of the former NDP Chairman of
Alexandria, in Attarine. Abu Ismael has battled allegations
he is ineligible to win a seat in the heavily-MB Raml
district by virtue of a rumored Palestinian-origin father
(rumors he has denied); while Khairy has had to beat back
allegations he is beholden to Israel due to one of his family
businesses representing an Israeli shipping line.


6. (SBU) Overall, however, the NDP appears well organized
and well financed and has realistic hopes of exceeding its
disappointing 2000 result. Alexandria PO spoke with one NDP
campaign worker designated as the "youth chairman" of the
Sidi Gaber district. Her role has been to organize campaign
activities in sporting establishments, youth clubs and other
youth-oriented organizations. She described an apparently
seamless organization of neighborhood, district and
governorate reporting lines that tie her and her colleagues
into the NDP leadership headed by Dakkak. In contrast, a
Wafd candidate, who later withdrew from contention, told
Alexandria PO he received no organizational or monetary
support from the Wafd party for his campaign, but was told by
party leaders that resources had been exhausted on the
presidential campaign of Noman Gomaa. In an election-eve
rally for campaign workers in Alexandria November 16 and
broadcast on Dream TV, Gamal Mubarak urged party members to
engage voters with a message that the NDP is the only party
with a program for job growth and improved living standards,
in contrast to the party of "darkness" (presumably the MB)
and independents.

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Casting a Vote for ) or Against -- Sectarian Tension
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7. (SBU) October's sectarian riots in Alexandria have been
linked to the election campaign, and specifically to the
candidacy of current (independent) MP Mohammad Badrasheeny
for helping to stoke the Muslim riots outside St. George,s
Coptic Church in the Muharram Bey district. Badrasheeny
holds the Worker seat of the adjacent Ghorbal district and is
alleged to have encouraged the disturbances as a means of
appealing to Islamist-inclined voters at the expense of his
NDP (and Coptic) opponent, Maher Khella. Khella withdrew his
name from the election after the riots began, but the NDP
rejected the withdrawal. The NDP's Dakkak told Alexandria PO
that the district has been trending MB over the years. The
results of this race, if reported fairly, may be an important
indication of the public's feelings regarding the strife. A
strong victory for Badrasheeny might indicate acceptance of
his alleged activities; while a victory for Khella would
indicate strong community rejection of them, given Ghorbal is
majority Muslim.

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Comment
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8. (SBU) The NDP and defacto NDP independents will almost be
the strongest performers on November 20, although the NDP's
flat performance in the first stage of elections could affect
its momentum in Alexandria. The MB, which currently holds
four seats through nominal independents in Alexandria, has
already doubled its representation in the People's Assembly
with its strong showing in the first stage, and seems poised
to increase its position in the Alexandria region as well.
Left behind, as elsewhere, will likely be "established"
opposition parties like the Wafd, Tagammu and Nasserists, who
appear almost totally sidelined in Alexandria. End comment.


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