STAFFDEL ZWEIG DISCUSSES REFORM, GAZA, AND FMF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 008164

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2015
TAGS: PREL KDEM KPAL EG IS
SUBJECT: STAFFDEL ZWEIG DISCUSSES REFORM, GAZA, AND FMF
DURING OCTOBER 13-14 VISIT TO EGYPT


Classified by ECPO Minister Counselor Michael Corbin for
reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Staffdel Zweig held meetings on political
reform, Gaza disengagement, and Foreign Military Funding
(FMF) during its October 13-14 visit to Cairo. The
delegation, consisting of Matthew Zweig and David Adams of
the House International Relations Committee, also received a
briefing at the Rafah border on plans for a new border
crossing at Karem Shalom. End summary.

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Gaza Disengagement and Syria
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2. (C) During the staffdel's October 13 meeting at MFA,
Director of Palestinian Affairs Randa Labib Hassan provided
an assessment of the political situation in Gaza and
described potential obstacles to further progress in the
peace negotiations. She said:

-- Fatah will win in January if they can show that they are
responsible for opening the border with Egypt;

-- Hamas mayors are making quick progress with civil projects
and therefore getting credit for improving living conditions;

-- progress has been too slow on Special Envoy Wolfensohn's
six point plan (especially safe passage, sea/airport);

-- although the GOI accepted the convoy proposal for Gaza-WB
traffic, it has failed to implement the plan;

-- GOI contacts told her they object to an airport in Gaza
because they fear it would lead to a 9/11-type incident;

-- GOI insistence on an Israeli presence at the seaport will
bar progress on this issue;

-- the failure to address the internal closure matter may
lead to a third intifada;

-- the best way to challenge Hamas is to let them join the
campaign so that they will be forced to show how they will
relate to Israel and improve the lives of Palestinians;

-- factions in the West Bank should be exempt from any pledge
to disarm because Israel occupies the territory and continues
attacks there.


3. (C) On Syria, Hassan said that Syrian contacts have
complained that they have tried to open a dialogue with the
U.S. on Iraq, but the U.S. refuses to engage.

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Political Reform
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4. (C) National Democratic Party reformer Dr. Hossam
Badrawi told the Staffdel that although views on reform
within the party vary, he does not believe that the party is
at risk of fracturing. Badrawi said that enthusiastic
reformers within the NDP:

-- realize that if the opposition is not a player, the
democratic process will not move forward;

-- want to amend Article 76 of the Constitution if no
opposition parties win the five percent of the parliamentary
seats needed to run a candidate for President;

-- want to amend Article 77 of the Constitution to limit
Presidential terms;

-- want to move to a list system for the parliamentary
elections (vice individual candidates);

-- have pledged to prohibit NDP members who leave the party
to run for election from returning;


5. (C) Badrawi speculated that the GOE has scheduled the
parliamentary elections so that voting will occur last in the
areas in which the Islamists are more popular. He said that
this will lessen the impact of any Islamist victories on
voting in the densely populated areas like Cairo. On health
and education, Badrawi said the GOE must limit the number of
public servants who are providing these services and develop
the private sector. The bigger challenge, he admitted, will
be to develop an assistance system that will enable people to
pay for health and education.

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Rafah Visit
--------------


6. (C) During the Staffdel's visit to Rafah, officers from
the Liaison Agency with International Organizations (LAWIO)
briefed them on the status of the border post-disengagement.
The LAWIO officers reported that the GOE had stopped a number
of smuggling attempts and discovered eight tunnels in 2005.
The officers also said that construction of the new terminal
at Karem Shalom was proceeding around the clock and would be
completed on or about October 29.

--------------
FMF Discussion with Ministry of Defense
--------------


7. (C) A Ministry of Defense team consisting of MG Al
Assar, MG Fouad Abdel Halim, BG Ahmed Mo'taz, and MG Nagy
briefed the staffdel on the symbolic importance of getting an
earmark on Egypt's FMF. The group explained that:

-- nearly all the Congresspeople they talk to said they
support an earmark for Egypt's FMF because of GOE cooperation
on issues such as Gaza disengagement;

-- recent examples of cooperation include exploring a GOE
role in training Afghan police and sending Egyptian engineers
to support Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Afghanistan;

-- Egypt will perceive the absence of an earmark for the FMF
as a sign that the U.S. is downgrading the relationship;

-- the absence of an earmark could require Egypt to reassess
its modernization plan and consider buying less expensive
non-U.S. military equipment.


8. (U) Staffdel did not have an opportunity to clear this
message.


RICCIARDONE