A/S WELCH DISCUSSES IRAQ, PALESTINE, AND SYRIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 007885

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2015
TAGS: PREL MOPS EG
SUBJECT: A/S WELCH DISCUSSES IRAQ, PALESTINE, AND SYRIA
WITH EGYPTIAN FOREIGN MINISTER

REF: CAIRO 7749

Classified by DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) During an October 9 meeting with NEA A/S Welch,
Egyptian Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit expressed pessimism
about the near-term outlook in Iraq, but affirmed support for
a comprehensive Arab diplomatic approach aimed at preserving
national unity and promoting reconciliation. The Foreign
Minister cautioned that recent images of U.S. military
operations in Western Iraq were fanning anger across the Arab
world. On Syria, Aboul Gheit said Egypt was working to
influence the SARG's behavior but warned against opening a
"third center of trouble" in an already volatile region. End
summary.

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Israel-Palestine
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2. (C) Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit solicited
U.S. views on the next steps forward in Israel-Palestine in
the post-Gaza withdrawal period. A/S Welch told the Foreign
Minister that he believed the upcoming summit between Prime
Minister Sharon and President Abu Mazen was an important
signal that a political process between the two parties would
continue to move forward. The U.S. hopes that both sides
will be able address each other with confidence and dignity,
he added. A/S Welch noted the concurrent presence in Cairo
of Special Envoy Wolfensohn, charged by President Bush with
overseeing U.S. assistance to promote stability and good
governance in the Gaza strip (whom Aboul Gheit had received
earlier on October 9 - septel).


3. (C) Aboul Gheit expressed Egyptian annoyance with a
reported recent statement by the IDF's Director of Military
Intelligence, asserting that extremists had taken advantage
of Israel's withdrawal to step up smuggling of weapons from
Egypt in Gaza. Aboul Gheit told A/S Welch that Egypt had
sought from the GOI clarification of the statement and had
been told that the official had referred to alleged smuggling
that had taken place in the initial period after the
withdrawal rather than after GOE security forces had
established order along the border. The MFA had since
circulated Israel's "clarification" to the Egyptian media,
the Foreign Minister stated.


4. (C) A/S Welch opined that, on balance, things were moving
in a positive direction, noting that President Mubarak had
told him earlier this morning (septel) that Israeli Defense
Minister Mofaz would soon visit Cairo. The Israeli MOD had
firm control of the Gaza withdrawal operation and had
operated effectively, A/S Welch observed, expecting that it
would continue to play a constructive role in the political
process that lay ahead. Two areas in which the USG hopes to
see progress soon are in withdrawals from Palestinian towns
and in easing the burden on Palestinians transiting IDF
checkpoints. Progress on each issue will strengthen Abu
Mazen's hand he asserted, noting that the Palestinian
President continues to enjoy significant public support. For
the Israelis, everything depends on security. As long as
acts of Palestinian violence and terror can be preempted,
many things will be possible.

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Syria
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5. (C) A/S Welch told Aboul Gheit that Syria was acting in a
manner that endangered progress on the Israeli-Palestinian
track, and was also taking actions that threatened to
destabilize Lebanon and further enflame the situation in
Iraq. President Asad's very public feting of leaders of
Palestinian extremist groups in early September was not an
isolated event, he cautioned. There is also significant
evidence of Syrian facilitation of new weapons transfers into
the hands of Palestinian extremists in Lebanon, and planning
by the Islamic Jihad organization, with Syrian support, of
new acts of terror against Israel. Aboul Gheit initially
demurred in the discussion, saying that he need not repeat
what President Mubarak had told A/S Welch earlier that
morning (septel).


6. (C) However, the Foreign Minister returned to the subject
of Syria later in the meeting, expressing concern that the
U.S., if it acted too aggressively, risked creating a "third
center of trouble" in an already volatile region. A/S Welch
told his host that he expected the Syrian case would become
"more complicated" in the near future, with the anticipated
mid-October release of the Mehlis report, which would likely
implicate Syria in the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri. A/S
Welch foresaw Security Council discussion, and possible
Security Council action, in response to the report.


7. (C) Aboul Gheit affirmed that Egypt was engaged in a high
level dialogue with Syria aimed at improving the SARG's
positions on key issues. The U.S. should also open a frank
dialogue with Syria, he suggested. The release of the UN
report may present a new opportunity to influence Syrian
actions, Aboul Gheit opined. A/S Welch told the Foreign
Minister that U.S. dialogue with Syria had been tried and
failed. In Washington's view, A/S Welch continued, ignoring
Syria's destabilizing actions in the region was more risky
than confronting Damascus. Drawing the Foreign Minister's
attention to President Bush's latest remarks on Syria, A/S
Welch cautioned that and the White House remained very
skeptical of Syria's intentions and that all options remained
open to the President.

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Iraq
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8. (C) A/S Welch described the coming 3-4 month period as a
particularly delicate one for Iraq and welcomed recent moves
to step up Arab diplomatic engagement there. Arab states can
play an important and constructive role in creating a
"center" in Iraq, helping Iraqis build a national consensus
for cooperation and stability, he stated. The U.S. was
encouraged by the recent Arab League announcement that it
would send a mission to Baghdad, A/S Welch added.


9. (C) Aboul Gheit said "something must be done to preserve
Iraqi national unity." The Arab League proposal to hold an
international conference in Cairo aimed at promoting an Iraqi
national reconciliation process was fully supported by Egypt.
However, such a conference required determined, deliberate
and thorough preparations, he continued. To this end, Arab
League envoy Ben Heli, an Algerian diplomat, was already in
Baghdad, where he was finding both Sunnis and Shi'a eager "to
bring the Arab League into their camp," according to the
Foreign Minister. Though Arab League SYG Amr Moussa had
initially announced he would visit Baghdad by October 15, he
had subsequently rethought the idea and dispatched Ben Heli
on a preparatory mission. Aboul Gheit expected that Moussa
would himself visit Baghdad, but not until the end of the
holy month of Ramadan (which concludes on November 3).


10. (C) On the overall Arab approach, Aboul Gheit told A/S
Welch he saw three core issues that needed to be addressed
simultaneously: resolving inter-communal conflicts,
establishing a sustainable political process, and addressing
the issue of foreign military occupation. The importance of
the later issue should not be underestimated, Aboul Gheit
asserted, recalling the bitter debate in the Arab public over
the legitimacy and legality of the foreign military presence.
The Foreign Minister envisioned that progress on this issue
might be realized by proposing a tentative timetable for the
withdrawal of foreign forces, perhaps within 24 months,
conditioned on the concurrent development of Iraq security
force capabilities.

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Iraq and the Media
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11. (C) Diplomatic efforts notwithstanding, Aboul Gheit said
he was gloomy about the near-term prospects in Iraq. He
expected the upcoming constitutional referendum would "do
nothing to reduce the violence." A/S Welch agreed that
fighting would continue, adding that U.S. and coalition
forces "would be stepping it up in some places." "Be careful
about that," Aboul Gheit cautioned in response. Recent
images of U.S. military operations in western Iraq were
enflaming the emotions of Arabs across the region, he stated,
citing a particular clip that had aired recently on
Al-Jazeera TV, showing a group of Iraqi civilians, including
a beleaguered mother carrying her baby. "This footage alone
will lead a thousand Arab youths to volunteer for Iraq (as
insurgents)," he asserted.


12. (C) The Foreign Minister also told A/S Welch that the
U.S. should be cautious in its use of terms like "Islamic
terrorism," citing President Bush's October 6 speech. "We
can understand when you refer to Islamist terrorism," he
stated, "but you should refer to terror as Islamic - Islam is
something different...We never heard of 'Catholic terrorism'
in Ireland."

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More Media Issues - Sawa and Manar
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13. (C) A/S Welch raised with the Foreign Minister U.S.
concerns about the incitement continuously broadcast on
Al-Manar, the Hizballah TV station carried on GOE-owned
Nilesat. Aboul Gheit, who had discussed the issue at length
with Ambassador Ricciardone on October 5 (reftel),assured
A/S Welch "I'm working on it."


14. (C) For his part, Aboul Gheit expressed GOE concern about
draft U.S. legislation linking assistance to Egypt to
progress on erecting an FM transmitter in Cairo to carry the
signal for the U.S.-funded station Radio Sawa. "We object to
this kind of arm twisting," the Foreign Minister stated, "it
will complicate a solution."

RICCIARDONE