Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05CAIRO7793
2005-10-11 14:40:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Cairo
Cable title:  

EGYPT'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS TAKE SHAPE AS

Tags:  PGOV KDEM EG 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 007793 

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS TAKE SHAPE AS
NATIONAL OPPOSITION FRONT FORMED


Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 007793

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS TAKE SHAPE AS
NATIONAL OPPOSITION FRONT FORMED


Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) A presidential decree issued on October 10 specifies
the dates for Egypt's forthcoming parliamentary elections,
which will be held in three rounds in November and early
December, following a rough geographical pattern. Meanwhile,
a new "National Front" announced on October 8 brings together
the most diverse array of opposition forces seen in Egypt's
recent political history, including the Muslim Brotherhood,
the Kifaya protest movement, and most of the significant
opposition parties, with the pointed exception of Ayman
Nour's Ghad Party. While bringing this eclectic collection
together is itself an achievement, the challenge of keeping
the group together, and acting in concert, for the next eight
weeks will likely prove difficult if not impossible. End
summary.

--------------
Dates (Finally) Set
--------------


2. (SBU) Ending weeks of tentative information and
speculation, a presidential decree issued late on October 10
sets the timetable for Egypt's forthcoming legislative
elections. Elections for the People's Assembly, last held in
2000, will be staged in three rounds in November and early
December.

-- The first round, on November 9, will cover Cairo and Giza,
the Delta province of Manoufiya, the Upper Egypt provinces of
Assiyut, Beni Swayf, and Minya, and the Western Desert
provinces of Marsa Matrouh and New Valley. The tentative
runoff date for the first round will be on November 15.

-- The second round, on November 20, will cover Alexandria
and the Delta provinces of Behira, Ismailia, Port Said, Suez,
Qalyubia, and Gharbia, as well as the upper Egypt provinces
of Fayyoum and Qena. The runoff date is November 26.

-- The third round, on December 1, will cover the Delta
provinces of Daqhaliya, Sharqiya, Kafr el-Sheikh, and Dumyat,
North and South Sinai, the Red Sea province, and the Upper
Egypt provinces of Sohag and Aswan. The runoff date is
December 7.


3. (SBU) Runoffs were not uncommon in the 2000 parliamentary
elections, as the law stipulates candidates must obtain an
absolute majority in order to win.

--------------
Opposition Forms a Unity Front
--------------


4. (C) Meanwhile, after months of haggling among a diverse
group of opposition parties and political movements, former
Prime Minister Aziz Sedky and Wafd Party President No'man
Gom'a announced on October 8 the formation of a "National
Front" that would ostensibly unify opposition forces,
including both the banned Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and the
Kefaya protest movement, against the ruling National
Democratic Party. While the impact and durability of the
front remains to be seen, its formation represents a
breakthrough.


5. (C) For months, agreement was blocked by the stubborn
opposition of the leftist Tagammu' Party to the inclusion of
the MB within the front. The Tagammu' had alternatively
proposed that Ayman Nour's Ghad Party be included in the
front, but the suggestion was anathema to the Wafd's No'man
Gom'a, who has long maintained a highly personal and public
feud with Nour, dating back to Nour's previous membership in
the Wafd. It is unclear how the Tagammu was ultimately
persuaded to climb down, but we note that party
Secretary-General Hussein Abdel Razek, rather than party

SIPDIS
President Rif'at Said, long an outspoken MB nemesis, appears
on the National Front press release. Ayman Nour's Ghad
party has been pointedly excluded, a victory for Gom'a.


6. (U) The full roster of the National Front appears below:

Licensed political parties:

-- Wafd
-- Tagammu'
-- Nasserist
-- Labour

Unlicensed parties
-- Wasat
-- Tahaluf
-- Karama
Other movements

-- Kifaya
-- The Muslim Brotherhood
-- The "National Grouping" (Including former PM Aziz Sedky,
tabloid publisher Mustafa Bakry, and academic Hasan Naf'a)

--------------
Comment
--------------


7. (C) The National Front will face two formidable
challenges. The first, and largest, will be keeping together
such a broad coalition, representing many contradictory
ideologies and comprising many large egos and uncompromising
personalities, and getting this group to coordinate its
message and activities. This challenge strikes us as
seemingly insurmountable, and defections of at least some of
the members seem inevitable. Second, even if the group does
manage to maintain some degree of cohesion, it will still
face an uphill battle in making an impact against the
retooled and increasingly disciplined NDP juggernaut, now
apparently firmly under the control of Gamal Mubarak and his
band of ambitious young technocrats. End comment.


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