NEA PDAS CHENEY'S SEPTEMBER 27-29 VISIT TO CAIRO -

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 007692

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR ABRAMS/POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM ETRD EG
SUBJECT: NEA PDAS CHENEY'S SEPTEMBER 27-29 VISIT TO CAIRO -
MEETING WITH PRIME MINISTER NAZIF

Classified by Charge Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Prime Minister Nazif said that he hoped domestic
election observers would be permitted during upcoming
parliamentary elections but was pessimistic about
international observers. He agreed that other improvements
to the election process, like transparent ballot boxes and
greater voter education, would be worth pursuing. Nazif
lamented the sorry state of Egypt's opposition parties and
suggested upcoming parliamentary elections might result in
greater, not less, NDP dominance of the People's Assembly.
Nazif expressed concern that delay in announcing the start
of U.S.-Egypt FTA negotiations undermined the U.S. image in
Egypt and added that the GOE was anxious for an
announcement on expansion of QIZ's in Egypt. End summary.


2. (C) NEA PDAS Elizabeth Cheney met September 28 with
Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif. Also sitting in on the
Egyptian side were Foreign Trade and Industry Minister
Rachid Rachid and Nazif's Chef de Cabinet, Dr. Sami Saad
Zaghloul. PDAS Cheney was accompanied by NEA DAS Scott
Carpenter, Charge, and ECPO Counselor (notetaker).

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Nazif Lauds Presidential Poll
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3. (C) The Prime Minister opened the meeting by expressing
satisfaction with the conduct of the September 7
presidential election and the neutral role played by the
GOE. Nazif stressed that the September 7 poll should serve
as a precedent not only for the next presidential election
in five years but also for the parliamentary elections
taking place in two months. Nazif highlighted:
-- "very good success" in ensuring that government agencies
and officials, which behaved as agents of the ruling
National Democratic Party (NDP) in prior elections,
remained non-partisan,
-- the restrained approach of police and other security
officials on election day itself, also a departure from
past practice, and
-- the Ministry of Information's success in ensuring
balanced coverage, particularly television coverage, of all
the candidates.

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Observers at the Parliamentary Election
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4. (C) Despite the successes, Nazif acknowledged that
there was much the GOE could fix before the parliamentary
elections. He pointed to GOE "flip-flopping" on election
observers followed by a last-minute decision to admit them
to polling stations. While the parliamentary election
commission is independent, it serves a more administrative
function, is headed by the Minister of Justice and includes
a number of executive branch officials, so the GOE might
have "more leeway" to push for some process improvements.
He encouraged the Embassy to present these improvements to
the Ministry of Justice. Nazif said that Egyptian NGOs
would be allowed to enter polling stations but was more
pessimistic regarding international monitors: "I cannot
promise international monitoring, but I can promise
monitoring."

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Building on Success
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5. (C) PDAS Cheney stressed that the USG considered it
very important for the parliamentary elections to be open
to international observers. It was also important, she
said, that the GOE build on the positive aspects of the
September 7 vote to make the parliamentary elections more
credible. There were a number of simple steps -
transparent ballot boxes, proper organization and
transparency of voter lists, voter education, training for
judges - that would significantly increase the credibility
of the parliamentary vote. The USG was willing to
provide technical assistance in these areas, including
through organizations such as the UN. She said she and DAS
Carpenter would be using their meetings over the next few
days to generate concrete ideas for next steps and USG
assistance. She said she looked forward to sharing these
ideas with the PM and other key members of the GOE in the
coming weeks.


6. (C) Nazif agreed that technical assistance provided
through the U.N. would be more palatable than assistance
directly from the U.S. (Note: when he said this, Rachid
shook his head no). Nazif acknowledged the problem with
voter lists, but suggested it was a problem that could only
be fixed over time, not quickly enough for the
parliamentary election. He called transparent ballot boxes
"a tricky issue." He said that insistence on transparent
boxes would be seen as a slap to the Ministry of Interior's
integrity. However, Nazif noted, the Ministry had always
cited cost as an obstacle to use of transparent boxes, so
if outside funding could be found perhaps the Ministry
would lose one of its objections.


7. (C) The Prime Minister proposed that voter education be
handled by the Ministry of Information rather than the
electoral commission. He said that, for the presidential
election, the Ministry had launched a very impressive and
non-partisan campaign encouraging voters to turn out.
Regarding training for the judicial officials who would
administer the voting, Nazif suggested that such training
could be handled through the Judges Training Center. He
noted that the judges were accustomed to getting training
there, and would not be offended by the need for
election-specific instruction if it were handled correctly.
Minister Rachid said that officials
had received training in advance of the presidential
election and would receive further training before the
parliamentary election.

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Keeping Mubarak's Promises
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8. (C) Nazif said that the GOE needed to work to fulfill
the promises President Mubarak made during the presidential
election campaign, adding that the legal and institutional
changes Mubarak called for would take two more People's
Assembly sessions (i.e., two more years) to carry out.
Nazif noted that Mubarak had called for distribution of
power between the president and the cabinet as well as
between the executive branch and the legislature. Mubarak
promised to replace the emergency law with anti-terrorism
legisation and increase the representation of women in
government. Mubarak also called for greater balance among
political parties in parliament.

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Egypt's Weak Parties
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9. (C) On the latter point, Nazif said that the NDP's
decades-long dominance of Egyptian politics would be
difficult to undo. He noted that virtually all those who
aspire to parliamentary seats pursue the NDP's backing.
Some of those that fail to get it run successfully as
independents and then join the NDP once in office. "This
is still a country focussed around the NDP," he said.
Nazif was frustrated by the Wafd Party's poor performance
during the presidential election campaign. This diminished
his hopes that the Wafd could ever become a viable
alternative, though he acknowledged that it was the GOE
that had weakened the Wafd and other opposition parties
over the past decades. He expressed hope that "good
people" in the second and third tier of the Wafd leadership
might someday revive the party. Nazif was equally
frustrated by Ghad Party leader Ayman Nour's success in the
presidential campaign, dismissing him as "childish." Nazif
admitted that the GOE had only itself to blame for Nour's
success, as his trial on forgery charges had significantly
raised his profile. "We made a hero of him," Nazif
lamented.


10. (C) Nazif said that the opposition parties, poorly led
and short of funds, would be able to field candidates in
the upcoming parliamentary elections in no more than 20-25
percent of constituencies. Rachid pointed out that, as a
result of its experience with the presidential election,
the NDP was more organized and effective than it had ever
been and may find itself after the elections with an even
more overwhelming grip on parliament. Egypt needs a party
list rather than a constituency-based system, Nazif
observed, if it is to expand opposition representation in
parliament.

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FTA Concerns
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11. (C) Nazif closed the meeting by stressing that "Egypt
is a country the U.S. can depend on." The two countries
see eye-to-eye on the big issues of peace, regional
stability, and economic development. Recalling his meeting
two days earlier with Under Secretary Hughes, Nazif
stressed that improving Arabs' perceptions of the U.S. was
in the GOE's interest as well as the U.S. interest. One
step that Nazif argued would enhance the U.S. image in
Egypt is the launch of FTA negotiations and both Nazif and
Rachid expressed concern at what they perceived as U.S.
backsliding. Nazif said that President Bush had told him
that the U.S. would be ready for Egypt FTA negotiations
once the Central America FTA was through Congress. Rachid
noted that negotiations would have to start soon if they
were to be completed before the expiration of Trade
Promotion Authority in 2007. Nazif also urged action on
expanding the QIZ's, which he hoped was underway.


12. (U) PDAS Cheney cleared this message.


RICCIARDONE