EGYPT: OPPOSITION LEADER NOUR WARDS OFF INTERNAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 007325

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT: OPPOSITION LEADER NOUR WARDS OFF INTERNAL
PARTY CHALLENGE BUT MORE CLOUDS LOOM

REF: A. CAIRO 5084


B. CAIRO 4981

C. CAIRO 4917

Classified by ECPO Minister Counselor Michael Corbin for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Barely a week after Ayman Nour placed second in the
presidential race, with a surprising and impressive 500,000
votes, an internal crisis in his Ghad (Tomorrow) Party raised
the prospect that his party might not survive to compete in
the November parliamentary elections. An attempted putsch
against Nour's leadership was decisively put down on
September 19, when the party's higher committee expelled
several senior party leaders. Meanwhile, Nour's politicized
trial on criminal forgery charges is set to resume on
September 25. Nour's political future is clouded by the
trial, and there remains the possibility that the GOE could
seize on "leadership disputes" within the Ghad as an excuse
to suspend its license. End summary.

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Nour's Leadership Challenged from Within
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2. (C) Many Cairo political observers have argued,
convincingly, that Ayman Nour was "the big winner" of the
September 7 presidential election. Though he placed a
distant second to President Mubarak, his garnering of 500,000
votes, according to official figures -- (Ghad party contacts
claim he actually got more) -- he soundly displaced the claim
of No'man Gom'a's Wafd Party to leadership of the opposition.
Yet just over a week after Nour's strong electoral showing,
he was faced with a crisis that threatened to destroy his
institutional base.


3. (SBU) Nour's leadership of the Ghad was challenged by
senior party official Mursi al-Sheikh, with the support of
Nour's deputy party chair Musa Musa and senior party member
Ragab Hilal Hemeida. On September 17, Al-Sheikh filed suit
against Nour in an administrative court, alleging that Nour's
call for an extraordinary general conference of the party on
September 23 was in violation of party by-laws.


4. (C) Al-Sheikh added insult to injury by publicly accusing
Nour of mismanaging the party. Musa, Nour's deputy, openly
sided with Al-Sheikh, alleging that Nour was being
manipulated by an inner circle of advisors to act against his
own and the party's interests. It remained unclear to
observers what grave mistakes Nour was supposedly making, as
Musa only cited alleged procedural violations of party
by-laws in his charge.

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Serious Implications
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5. (C) Although on the surface Musa's criticism, and even
Al-Sheikh's suit, were superficial procedural squabbles, it
was clear that the political implications for Nour and his
party were potentially devastating. The dispute provided the
GOE's Political Parties Committee (PPC),chaired by Shura
Council Speaker (and ruling NDP Secretary-General) Safwat
Sherif with a potentially perfect pretext to suspend the Ghad
Party's license. Suspending parties riven by internal
leadership disputes has long been a standard practice of the
PPC. Of 19 legally registered parties, four are currently in
suspended status for this reason. However, the court
rejected Al-Sheikh's suit on September 19, and there are so
far no signs of impending PPC action against the Ghad.


6. (C) Nonetheless, particularly given Nour's strong showing
in the September 7 presidential polls, many observers believe
elements within the GOE would have every reason to undermine
the Ghad Party in order to prevent another embarrassingly
strong performance in the parliamentary elections. (Comment:
In fact, the Ghad's potential electoral threat to the NDP on
the parliamentary front will be modest. Our senior party
contact predicts the Ghad will field no more than 30
candidates for the 444 People's Assembly seats that will be
contested. End comment.)


7. (C) Ghad Party contacts, and a number of independent
observers, believe that both Musa Musa and Rageb Hilal
Hemeida have for some time been firmly under the control of
GOE elements out to get Nour and tame, if not destroy, his
party. Musa, who was abroad at the time of Nour's January 29
arrest, could have also been jailed - his signature was next
to Nour's on all of the offending documents. It is widely
believed that prosecution was waived in return for his
"cooperation" with the GOE. Likewise, Ragab Hilal, a
charismatic businessman with a checkered financial past,
could easily be jailed by the GOE - he is known to face
numerous unenforced court judgments.

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Rebels Crushed
--------------


8. (C) Nour and his camp dealt decisively with the internal
challenge. A September 19 meeting of the Ghad Party's higher
council ended with the expulsion of senior party officials
Musa, Mursi al-Sheikh, Ragab Hilal Hemeida and businessman
Ibrahim Saleh. Musa and his expelled colleagues apparently
had few friends on the higher committee; the decisions to
expel them were unanimous. Left standing in the senior Ghad
Party leadership were Vice Presidents Nagui al-Ghatrifi, a
retired diplomat, and Hisham Kassem, a newspaper publisher
and outspoken GOE critic, and assistant Secretary-General and
Nour confidante Wael Nowara. Egyptian press reports are also
citing rumors that Nour's wife Gamila Ismail might be elected
to fill one of the newly vacant senior party posts at the
September 23 conference.

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More Clouds on the Horizon
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9. (C) Meanwhile, Ayman Nour's trial on criminal forgery
charges is set to resume on September 25. The venue for the
trial has been moved from the high profile South Cairo
courthouse to a more obscure courtroom in the eastern Cairo
suburb of Nasr City. Nour and his supporters continue to
contend that the charges were manufactured against him by
political enemies within the GOE and the ruling NDP,
expressly to punish his strident criticism of the regime
undermine the potential electoral challenges posed by his new
party.


10. (C) Nour's trial opened in late June in a circus-like
atmosphere (reftels) with thousands of supporters, many of
them unruly, contained by thousands of riot police. As
reported in ref B, the prosecution was thrown into apparent
disarray when its star witness asserted to judges and
courtroom observers that he had been coerced into testifying
against Nour. Even so, few Cairo political observers are
willing to predict which direction the trial will take,
although most assume that any major decisions taken by the
court will be political - and dictated by the GOE.

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Comment
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11. (C) There are three principal scenarios for Nour's trial.
First, it could end in a quick acquittal, presumably
vindicating Nour and allowing him and his party to focus on
the legislative elections. Second, it could end in a fairly
rapid conviction, removing Nour from the stage and probably
wrecking the Ghad Party, but with uncertain and possibly
explosive political repercussions. Third, and probably most
likely, the trial could drag on, either through lengthy
hearings or further postponements, until after the
parliamentary elections. This scenario would have the effect
of undermining Nour and the Ghad without risking the backlash
of a conviction.


12. (C) We also cannot discount the possibility that the PPC
might recognize the expelled Ghad figures as a rival,
parallel leadership, should they present themselves as such,
and thus decide to suspend the party's license. End comment.


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JONES