ENGAGING "LIKE-MINDED" NATIONS ON INTERNATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 007189

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM EG EU
SUBJECT: ENGAGING "LIKE-MINDED" NATIONS ON INTERNATIONAL
OBSERVATION OF EGYPT'S UPCOMING PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS


Classified by ECPO Minister Counselor Michael Corbin for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Emboffs have reached out to key members of
Cairo's diplomatic community to urge public and private
support for international observers in the run up to the
parliamentary elections. We have spoken with a visiting UK
Cabinet Secretariat team; a joint meeting of poloffs from ten
"like-minded" embassies; and a visiting EU delegation that is
exploring the feasibility of an international observer
mission for the parliamentary elections. Our interlocutors
agree that an international observer mission would be a major
positive development, and they have watched with interest our
efforts to persuade the GOE to invite international
observers. End summary.


2. (C) Poloff met UK poloff and UK Cabinet Secretariat
officers on September 13 for a review of the September 7
election. Poloff explained that, despite the GOE's refusal
to invite an international observer mission, we were pleased
that USG-supported domestic monitors had played a key role in
the September 7 election observation. Poloff explained the
role played by NDI and IRI assessment teams (which in lieu of
international observation teams nevertheless advance the goal
of international engagement with Egypt's electoral process)
and noted our firm intention to try again to convince the GOE
to invite international monitors for the parliamentary
elections.


3. (C) In a meeting later on September 13 with
"like-minded" poloffs from the French, British, Norwegian,
Swedish, Belgian, Dutch, Swiss, Italian, Danish, and
Australian embassies, poloff reiterated the points already
made separately to the British regarding the success of
domestic monitoring efforts, the role of the NDI/IRI teams,
and the need to take another run at the question of
international observation.


4. (C) Finally, in a September 14 meeting with EC
Delegation Charge and a visiting six-person team from
Brussels--which has spent several days in Cairo exploring the
feasibility of mounting an EU observation team for the
parliamentary elections--DCM, ECPO Counselor, and poloffs
reviewed our efforts on monitoring in connection with the
presidential election and noted our plan to push ahead with
support for domestic and international monitors. The EU team
noted that their purpose in Cairo was threefold:

--"fact-finding" about the just completed presidential and
upcoming parliamentary elections;

--exploring the medium to long-term possibilities for
electoral assistance, including in such areas as civic
education and candidate training; and

--exploring the prospects for an EU observation mission for
the parliamentary elections.


5. (C) In the wide-ranging discussion that ensued, the EU
team made several key points:

--The EU's internal guidelines for how to conduct
international monitoring missions are designed to maximize
the access, impartiality and credibility of any EU monitoring
mission.

--"Agreement (i.e., from the GOE) is indispensable for us,"
the EU Charge noted. The EU would not consider an
observation/monitoring mission without the support of the
host government.

--They believed that while the USG and EU should closely
coordinate on our respective approaches to the GOE, they did
not favor joint demarches, which they argued are poorly
received by the GOE.

--The delegation members noted that European Parliamentarians
may also consider coming to assess the parliamentary
elections. They noted that ideally the EU MPs would
piggyback on a larger technical observation mission, but that
even if a technical observation mission did not materialize,
some EU MPs might choose to visit Egypt for the parliamentary
elections. The problem with the latter scenario, opined the
delegation, was that it combined a partial, non-expert
assessment with the relatively high-profile of EU MPs who
might issue statements on less than full information.

--Perhaps trying to diminish expectations, the delegation
told us that if the 2005 parliamentary elections go off as
expected (i.e., with the customary intimidation, rigging, and
general messiness),they wonder about the value of trying to
mount an observation mission. They argued that unless there
is a realistic expectation that the 2005 parliamentary
elections will mark an advance in Egypt's nascent democracy
(instead of merely business as usual),a formal international
observation mission would simply confirm everyone's worst
fears. (We countered that the simple occurence of proper
internation observation would be a major development, which
the EU team acknowledged.)

--Egyptian political party representatives, civil society
representatives, and other non-governmental players had all
met with and briefed the EU delegation. The GOE had
cancelled appointments with key officials at the MFA,
Justice, and Interior, however.

--The EU team further noted that eight weeks is the minimum
time needed to organize such a mission, but said that a
comprehensive effort, albeit under rushed conditions, could
still be organized six weeks ahead of the elections.


6. (C) Comment: The EU delegation did not seem optimistic
that they would receive an invitation from the GOE to conduct
a proper observation mission, but their presence in Cairo
suggests that they are willing to give it a try. They also
noted that NEA DAS Carpenter will hold a video conference
with EU officials in Brussels on Monday, September 18.
Septel lays out our current thinking on the tactics we
recommend to get international observers for the
parliamentary elections. End comment.


Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo

You can also access this site through the
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website.

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