EGYPT'S SEPTEMBER 7 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: HOW IT

UNCLAS CAIRO 006912

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT'S SEPTEMBER 7 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: HOW IT
WILL WORK


Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly.


1. (SBU) Summary: The September 7 presidential election will
be the Egyptian people's first opportunity to select a
president in a competitive process. Although the GOE claims
31 million citizens are eligible to vote, participation will
be much lower, and actual turnout rates could become a source
of dispute between the GOE and domestic monitors. The GOE
plans to field 13,000 judges and judicial officials to act in
a supervisory capacity at more than 10,000 polling stations.
The Embassy is deploying officers for informal observation
missions in Cairo and in eight provinces across the country.
The Embassy is also in close touch with international
assessment teams and domestic monitors. Counting will not
begin until polls close at 10 PM. Official results and other
statistics are not expected before late Thursday at the
earliest. End summary.


2. (SBU) According to the GOE, 31 million Egyptians are
eligible to participate in the September 7 poll, Egypt's
first direct and competitive presidential election. However,
most observers predict a low turnout due both to apathy and
to cumbersome voter registration procedures. (Note: Voter
registration closed in January, one month before President
Mubarak announced his initiative to establish a competitive
presidential election system. End note.) Official
statistics on turnout will be closely (and skeptically)
scrutinized by observers. Egyptian civil society activists,
and the Egyptian Judges' club, accused the GOE of grossly
exaggerating turnout in the May 25 referendum.


3. (SBU) Voting will take place at 10,129 polling stations
scattered across the country. In addition to election staff,
the GOE says it will deploy 13,000 judges and judicial
officials to act as electoral supervisors.


4. (SBU) Police will be stationed outside polling stations
but are prohibited from entering. In past elections, police
have been accused of limiting access to polling stations,
especially in districts where ruling NDP candidates were
thought to be at risk of losing. Police conduct during the
September 7 poll will be closely scrutinized by domestic
observers and domestic and international media.


5. (SBU) Despite a court ruling in favor of domestic election
monitors' right to access polling stations (septel),the
Presidential Elections Commission (PEC) has decreed that only
voters, poll workers, supervisory judges, and candidate/party
representatives will be allowed inside the polling stations.



6. (SBU) The Embassy is deploying officers to observe polling
at various neighborhoods in Cairo and in eight provinces
outside of Cairo. The Embassy is also in close touch with
(USAID-funded) assessment teams dispatched by NDI and IRI,
and with representatives of the four principal coalitions of
Egyptian civil society monitors.


7. (SBU) Counting will begin at each polling station after
polls close at 10 P.M. on September 7. A copy of the
instructions issued to judges by the PEC, obtained by the
Embassy, explicitly forbids judges from releasing the results
of counts at local polling stations, contrary to the
recommendation issued by the professional organization
representing Egyptian judges at their September 2 meeting.
It is unlikely that any results or other official data will
be available before late Thursday afternoon, Cairo time, at
the earliest.


Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo

You can also access this site through the
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website.

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