EGYPT'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, UPDATE #1

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 006448

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, UPDATE #1

Classified by A/DCM Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (U) This message is the first in a series which will
update key developments in the Egyptian presidential campaign
(August 17-September 4).

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Summary
--------------


2. (SBU) The presidential campaign kicked off August 17.
Not surprisingly, Mubarak has the most visible campaign. In
addition to his August 17 speech, he delivered a second major
address on August 21 and laid out an ambitious job-creation
agenda. In the race for second place, Ayman Nour seems to
have the upper hand over the Wafd Party's last minute
entrant, No'man Gom'a. The seven other opposition parties
are disappearing without a trace. After considerable
speculation about backroom deals, the Muslim Brotherhood on
August 21 urged its membership to vote, but not for any
"corrupt" candidates. The Judge's Club threat to refuse to
supervise the election continues to loom over the September 7
vote. Domestic monitoring groups continue to prepare to
monitor the vote, but have voiced concerns that the
Presidential Election Commission is walking back the GOE's
commitment to allow domestic monitors. End summary.

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The Mubarak Juggernaut
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3. (SBU) President Mubarak launched his reelection campaign
on August 17 with a carefully scripted speech that reiterated
themes of reform and progress. Clad in a blue jacket and
white open-collar shirt, Mubarak presented himself as the
experienced leader who is best positioned to ensure a "safe
and strong Egypt." He noted that Egypt's many domestic
challenges required practical, concrete solutions, but
offered few specifics about his own plans for change and
reform. In an August 21 rally in Cairo, Mubarak focused on
his economic plans, including his promise to create 700,000
jobs per year if reelected.


4. (SBU) The fingerprints of a western campaign consultant
were all over the August 17 Mubarak speech, which included a
carefully chosen venue (a park in eastern Cairo),a phalanx
of "representative" Egyptian citizens seated behind the
president while he spoke (including peasants, youth, and at
least one veiled woman),and plenty of glossy campaign
posters waved by supporters (whose enthusiasm occasionally
sparked chuckles and grins from Mubarak). Along with the
speech, the audience was presented with a short film about
Mubarak's life and achievements. This Egyptian version of
"The Boy from Hope" would seem to be additional evidence of
the hand of a PR firm. Mubarak's reelection website
(www.mubarak2005.com),which contains an extensive English
language section, presents another aspect of the relatively
sophisticated Mubarak campaign.


5. (C) A recent non-Egyptian visitor to the NDP campaign
headquarters told us that he had encountered an individual at
the headquarters who the visitor took to be a foreign
campaign consultant. When our contact tried to engage him,
the mystery man ducked into an adjacent office. Our contact
also noted that his NDP contacts had told him that they are
engaging in a considerable polling effort for the campaign,
though they also noted the sensitivity of releasing any of
their poll results.

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Nour's Challenge
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6. (C) Ayman Nour launched his campaign with an August 17
speech at his Bab Shar'iya headquarters. Nour has promised
that, if elected, he will serve only two years at the head of
an interim government. He has promised to focus on
constitutional reform, elimination of the emergency law, and
an economic package that would create "real jobs." Nour
received an endorsement (of dubious value) from fringe
politician Talat Sadat, the nephew of slain president Anwar
Sadat, who himself had been barred for running on the Liberal
Party platform due to intra-party squabbles. More
significantly, Nour has courted the Muslim Brotherhood, going
so far as to join Supreme Guide Mahdi Akef in prayer at a
Cairo mosque. The MB has not reciprocated with anything
close to an endorsement of Nour.

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No'man Gom'a: Not much so far
--------------

7. (C) The late entry in the race of No'man Gom'a has
threatened Nour's chances of winning second place. While the
Wafd Party structure is creaking into action, Gom'a has so
far not impressed. His campaign managers launched his
campaign without him, at an odd press conference on August

17. Gom'a appeared at a separate press event on the same
day. Gom'a's campaign advertisements have focused on his
desire to have a "contract" with the Egyptian people. Gom'a
appeared to alienate the MB, after initial overtures, by
stating that the MB should remain a social movement and not
receive approval as a legal, political group.

-------------- --
The rest of the opposition: We hardly knew you
-------------- --


8. (SBU) None of the other opposition parties has had any
noticeable impact. On August 17, a number of them noted that
they were awaiting their GOE-provided campaign funds before
they could start campaigning. At least one candidate has
publicly noted that he will likely endorse Mubarak for
reelection.

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The Muslim Brotherhood Weighs In
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9. (SBU) The MB announced on August 21 that MB voters
should vote in the presidential poll but did not endorse a
candidate. The announcement ended, for the time being,
previous speculation that the MB might throw its weight
behind one of the candidates, or call for a boycott. The
MB's August 21 statement, released by Supreme Guide Mahdi
Akef, described voting as a responsibility for which God
would hold voters to account. Akef further instructed his
followers not to support a "corrupt" or "tyrannical" ruler.
(Note: the latter phrase in MB-speak is widely presumed to
refer to Mubarak. End note.)

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The Judges' Looming Decision
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10. (C) The Judges' Club continues to assert that it will
not decide about its threat against the GOE to refuse to
supervise the election, as required by the Constitution,
until an extraordinary meeting on September 2. The GOE has
not publicly signaled its willingness to meet the judges'
demands for increased constitutional and financial
independence. The GOE has continued to insist that there
will be "full judicial supervision" of the polls. A boycott
of the poll by a significant number of judges could, in the
eyes of some observers, open the September 7 polls to a legal
challenge on the grounds that the GOE did not abide by the
Constitution's call for judicial supervision.

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Domestic Monitors Complain of GOE Double Talk
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11. (C) In response to a statement by Mohammed Marei, the
Chair of the Presidential Election Commission, that the PEC
would not permit domestic observers to enter polling
stations, the three leading Egyptian monitoring coalitions
have filed a lawsuit against Marei. Their suit alleges that
Marei was speaking unofficially and not on behalf of the
committee, and that his words will have a chilling effect on
the domestic monitoring effort. In addition, some monitors
as well as a number of opposition parties have begun to
complain that the GOE still has not released voter lists and
campaign funds to a number of the opposition parties.
Finally, the GOE has yet to issue a clear public statement
about international monitors.


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JONES