Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05CAIRO6137
2005-08-09 16:35:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Cairo
Cable title:  

PROSPECTS FOR INTERNATIONAL MONITORING OF EGYPT'S

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM EG 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 006137 

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EG
SUBJECT: PROSPECTS FOR INTERNATIONAL MONITORING OF EGYPT'S
ELECTIONS


Classified by CDA Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

-------
Summary
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 006137

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EG
SUBJECT: PROSPECTS FOR INTERNATIONAL MONITORING OF EGYPT'S
ELECTIONS


Classified by CDA Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Since President Bush's May 7 call for international
monitoring of Egypt's presidential elections, the GOE has
expressed little enthusiasm for the idea, but has also
avoided rejecting it. The GOE continues to argue that
international monitoring is opposed by many in the Egyptian
public as an affront to Egyptian sovereignty. With the
campaign due to begin on August 17, the presidential election
scheduled for September 7, and no international monitors
lined up, time appears to be running out for the presidential
election. The GOE may be hoping to stave off the issue
through delay as opposed to confrontation. Nevertheless, the
Embassy believes that now is the time to deliver our
strongest points on the need for a GOE decision on this
issue. Even if international monitors of the presidential
elections constitute a merely symbolic presence, they will be
an important symbol. There is still plenty of time to
organize a more comprehensive international monitoring effort
for the parliamentary elections, which will likely occur in
November, and which most observers agree actually hold the
key to Egypt's democratic progress. End summary.

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The GOE's argument
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2. (C) Prime Minister Nazif has been the most vocal
messenger of the GOE's reluctance to invite international
monitors. Beginning with his comments to NBC and PBS in May
while on his official visit to Washington, and as recently as
late July in remarks to CNN, Nazif has taken the line that
the GOE sees no need for international observers. The goal,
Nazif has repeatedly noted, is for the upcoming elections to
be seen as free and fair, and Egypt's unique system of
judicial supervision of the polls is well qualified to
provide this oversight. Similarly, in comments to the Deputy
Secretary in mid-July (septel),presidential son and head of

SIPDIS
the NDP Policy Committee Gamal Mubarak noted that the GOE has
not yet made a decision about this contentious issue, and
continues to believe that elections are a domestic affair

that have no need for international supervision. (Note:
Nazif and other GOE commentators have tended to downplay the
considerable controversy and uncertainty that exists about
the mechanics, thoroughness, and general feasibility of
judicial supervision of the upcoming elections. In addition,
they have chosen to ignore the fact that judicial supervision
of the polls alone, even if successful, will provide no
monitoring of the campaigns leading to the elections. End
note.) Significantly, however, the GOE has not issued a
categorical refusal to accept international monitors.
Rather, they have voiced their general opposition, and noted
that the issue is still under consideration. This delaying
tactic has allowed them so far to avoid a direct
confrontation over the issue.


3. (C) In contrast to the prevailing GOE reluctance, in a
July 26 conversation with poloff, the Vice President of
Egypt's newly formed Presidential Elections Commission noted
his intention to urge the Commission, at its formal meeting
on July 27, to formally invite international monitors to
observe the September 7 election. To date, however, the
Commission has issued no such invitation.


4. (C) The issue of international monitoring has occasioned
considerable public debate. Many conservative
editorialists--including some who are widely believed to be
in the pay of the GOE--have denounced international
monitoring as "foreign interference." Certain leaders of
opposition political parties and groups, including the Wafd
and the Muslim Brotherhood, have taken a similar line, though
independent analysts wonder if their stance is based, at
least in part, on a desire to curry favor with the GOE.
Other opposition parties, such as al-Ghad and Tagammu, have
argued that international monitors should be welcomed if the
GOE wishes to convince the world of its committment to
political reform. During a recent conference at the
Bibliotheca Alexandrina, NDP reformist Dr. Ossama al-Ghazaly
Harb summarized the case for international monitoring thusly:
international monitoring cannot be considered foreign
interference in national sovereignty, if the GOE truly wants
to conduct democratic elections. Harb noted that
international monitoring is now the "worldwide norm," and
discounted the "foreign interference" argument as "nonsense."

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At odds with its actions
--------------

5. (C) Somewhat surprisingly, given the GOE's opposition to
any foreign monitoring of Egypt's elections, the GOE has
participated recently in poll monitoring in a number of
countries, including the Palestinian Authority, Zimbabwe, and
Uganda. Most recently, the foreign minister of the aspirant
nation of Somaliland noted that in her bilateral meetings in
Cairo, the GOE had agreed to assist Somaliland with
monitoring of its upcoming elections. The GOE has not sought
to publicize its own participation in international
monitoring efforts in other countries.

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Diplomatic community willing, but but only if the GOE asks
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Embassy Cairo officers have continued to explore the
issue of international monitors and observers with various
members of the diplomatic community in Cairo. The U.N., the
E.U., and various European embassies all agree on the
desirability of international monitoring, but they all also
note that any effort would be predicated on the GOE inviting
international monitors to play a role. Our diplomatic
contacts agree that every day the GOE delays making a
decision on international monitors diminishes the likelihood
that a meaningful international monitoring effort can take
place. Observers also agree, however, that regardless of
whether or not international observers play a meaningful role
in the monitoring the upcoming elections, media scrutiny,
domestic monitoring, and judicial supervision (if it comes to
pass) will ensure that the 2005 elections will be the most
scrutinized polls in modern Egyptian history.

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Comment
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7. (C) We believe that we should continue to push the GOE
to accept international monitoring, but that we must also be
prepared to assist international monitors to move quickly
if/when the GOE invites them. The National Democratic
Institute (NDI),the International Republican Institutes
(IRI),and the International Foundation for Electoral Systems
(IFES) are operational in Cairo, with USAID support, and
might be mobilized quickly to support international
monitoring efforts if the GOE were to give the green light.
Ideally, the GOE would act in the next few days, prior to the
start of the presidential campaign, to invite international
monitors to play a role. Barring this, even a last minute
positive decision by the GOE to invite monitors for the
presidential election could be seized by the diplomatic
community here to play a more public role in analyzing the
elections process and results. Finally, we continue to
believe that the parliamentary elections, which will likely
be scheduled for November, remain the real prize for 2005,
since it will be the new Parliament which will be able to
test the GOE's stated commitment to democratic reform and to
set the stage for any future change in executive power. End
comment.


Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo

You can also access this site through the
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website.

JONES