EGYPT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS MOVING AHEAD WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 005944

SIPDIS

FOR NEA/ELA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS MOVING AHEAD WITH
CANDIDATE REGISTRATION; HISTORIC OPPOSITION PARTY TO ENTER
THE RACE

REF: A. CAIRO 5821


B. CAIRO 5592

Classified By: A/DCM Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

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Summary
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1. (C) President Mubarak's July 28 announcement of his plans
to run for a fifth 6-year term in Egypt's first-ever
multi-candidate presidential election (ref A) was marked by a
range of reactions, from full support to outright
disappointment, and an anti-Mubarak rally in downtown Cairo
on July 30 that was marred by violence (septel). Meanwhile,
a number of challengers to Mubarak are registering to run in
the September 7 election. In a surprise move late August 1,
al-Wafd party leader No'man Gomaa reversed his party's
earlier decision to not field a candidate and announced his
intention to run, bringing the largest "historic" opposition
party into the fray. Most other candidates, with the
exception of al-Ghad party leader Ayman Nour, are clearly
engaging in symbolic gestures. End summary.

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Reaction from Pundits Runs the Whole Spectrum
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2. (C) Both media commentary and Embassy contacts offered a
range of reactions to President Mubarak's July 28
announcement to run for the NDP in the September 7
presidential elections. Although oppositionists and
entrenched NDP supporters alike shared the view that
Mubarak's decision was no real surprise, many offered
passionate and pointed criticism that would never have
surfaced in the previous system of presidential referendums:

--Intellectual Amin Al-Mahdy said that Mubarak's decision was
expected, but part of an "act" that started with the
"farcical" amendment of Article 76 of the Constitution. He
said that "Mubarak's undemocratic and corrupt regime would
never allow others to reach power. "The NDP is fooling the
U.S. into believing that there is ongoing reform and
democracy in Egypt while in fact the regime is implementing
what it wants and making it look legal and constitutional."

-- Deputy Director of Al-Ahram's Center for Political and
Strategic Studies Dr. Mohamed El-Sayyed Said told us that
Egyptians never doubted that Mubarak would run again for the
presidency. If there was any doubt about another term,
El-Sayyed remarked, Mubarak's address to the nation following
the Sharm bombings shattered it. In the end, El-Sayyed
noted, Mubarak's main reason for running in 2005 was the same
one he used throughout the 1990s - to combat terrorism.

-- Hisham Qassem of the opposition Al-Ghad Party said that
although Mubarak wanted the people to think that he was
preparing his son Gamal for the presidency, "he actually
planned from the very beginning to run personally." Qassem
added that Mubarak was using all means to leave little room
for competitors. Nevertheless, Qassem said the Ghad Party
would fight fiercely.

-- Manar Al-Shorbuggy, chair of the American Studies Center
at the American University in Cairo, said that while
Mubarak's July 28 promise of future constitutional change was
welcome, his ideas were more the demands of opposition
parties than a unilateral Mubarak initiative. Al-Shorbuggy
also observed that Mubarak's proposed constitutional reform
was vague. Citing the experience with Article 76, she
cautioned that the NDP's view of constitutional reform may
differ significantly from general expectations.

-- Hassan Badrawy of the Al-Wafd Party said Mubarak's
announcement was expected. Though a Mubarak supporter, he
noted with disdain that the Cairo's Gezira Sporting Club
allows for lengthier presidential campaigns. "Three weeks is
not nearly enough time for candidates to realistically
promote themselves or their ideas," he complained. That
said, Badrawy said he fully supports Mubarak and his "good
intentions toward the country," especially over other "very
weak" candidates or a system based on inheritance. While
welcoming the proposed cancellation of the Emergency Law,
Badrawy feared that a new anti-terrorism law could be worse,
cautioning that the "ring" of advisors surrounding Mubarak
"always gives him a wrong picture."

-- Youssef Sidhom, editor-in-chief of the Coptic newspaper
al-Watani, said that Mubarak was the best available candidate
for the upcoming elections. He viewed the current elections
as a chance for possible candidates to prepare themselves for
the 2011 elections. Sidhom criticized the Pope's statement
supporting the continuity of the Mubarak regime.

-- Emad Siam, member of the Kifaya movement, opposed
Mubarak,s nomination and stated the Movement was expecting
someone else from the NDP to run. He added that Kifaya will
keep demonstrating against Mubarak and "we will keep trying
to open people's eyes to the Mubarak regime's shortcomings,
such as human rights violations, corruption, and economic
deterioration."

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Demonstrations Turn Ugly
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3. (SBU) Mubarak's announcement also precipitated one
anti-Mubarak demonstration. On July 30, some 250 protesters
held a demonstration in central Cairo, which ended with
police violence and arrests (septel).

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Wafd Party Enters the Race
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4. (SBU) After taking a firm position to not field a
candidate, but also to not "boycott" the presidential
election, the al-Wafd Party, historically Egypt's most
prominent opposition force whose heyday was in the 1930s,
dramatically changed course on August 1 with the announcement
that septuagenarian party chairman No'man Gomaa would run for
president. In a press conference, Gomaa stated that after
long deliberations, the Party's Higher Committee decided in a
30-10 vote to field him as a candidate. He emphasized,
however, that this was the party's decision, and that he had
been one of the members who had opposed his nomination.
Gomaa also said that Wafd had decided to move forward with
his nomination even though the pre-conditions set by the
party had not been met. The party had earlier decided that
it would not field a candidate unless the GOE repealed the
Emergency Law, made available accurate lists of registered
voters, and provided full judicial supervision of the
elections. (Comment: Most analysts believed that Wafd had
originally decided not to field a candidate because of fears
of being embarrassed by low voter support. End comment.)


5. (SBU) Gomaa said that the official campaign period
(August 17-September 4) was far too short, even for local
council elections. He stated it would be impossible for
independent candidates to obtain the required signatures of
support from elected members of national and regional
legislatures. However, Gomaa said he would do his best to
win, despite the difficulty in running against Mubarak.
Gomaa stated that the Wafd Party would likely reject
government funds (500,000 Egyptian pounds, or about $86,800)
offered to candidates to finance their campaigns, opting
instead to use Wafd resources.


6. (SBU) Note: Potential candidates have until August 4 to
submit registration materials to the 10-member Presidential
Election Commission. The commission will then determine
whether candidates qualify under the recently adopted
Presidential Elections Law, either as independents or as
party nominees. To qualify as an independent, a candidate
must obtain 250 signatures from elected members of national
and regional legislatures. To qualify as a party nominee,
the candidate's party must have been legally recognized and
in operation prior to May 2005. End note.

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And Let's Not Forget the Other Candidates
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7. (SBU) Even as Mubarak kicked off his official campaign,
other presidential aspirants were making their decisions on
the upcoming election. Three would-be candidates have made
public, symbolic withdrawals from the presidential race:
Tagammu Party honorary chairman Khalid Mohieldin, prominent
reformer Saad Eddin Ibrahim, and feminist author Nawal
Saadawi (ref B). Others are in various phases of registering
their candidacy by the August 4 deadline. Those who have
made known their intention to run in the September 7 election
include:

--Wahid al-Oksory, age 52, retired army officer and chairman
of the Misr Al-Araby Socialist Party;

--Ahmed el-Sabahi, age 90, former Shura Council member and
chairman of the Umma Party;

--Dr. Fawzi Ghazal, age 73, chairman of the Egypt 2000 Party;

--Refaat Al-Agroudy, age 63, chairman of the al-Wefaq
al-Qawmy Party;
--Ibrahim Turk, age 47, chairman of the Unionist Democratic
Party;

--Dr. Osama Shaltout, former army officer, chairman of the
Al-Takamoul Party and appointed member of the Shura Council;

--Helmy Salem, age 62, chairman of the Ahrar Party;

--Mamdouh Qenawy, age 69, chairman of the Social Constitional
Party;

--Ayman Nour, age 40, chairman of the al-Ghad Party.

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Comment
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8. (C) Comment: Wafd has set sail on what will be a stormy
and highly improbable path to victory on election day. But
given that most candidates are entering the presidential race
entirely for symbolic reasons, Wafd's decision to field Gomaa
is welcome. Its abrupt changing of course to nominate its
chairman for the presidency and his suggestions that the
party will use in-house resources to support his run suggests
that Wafd appears to be taking its campaign against Mubarak
seriously. Once approved by the Election Commission, Egypt's
presidential ballot will be filled with nearly a dozen
lightweight candidates and two middleweight contenders (Gomaa
and al-Ghad party leader Ayman Nour),all entering a race
where the clear favorite, by a long shot, remains President
Mubarak. End comment.


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