MFA COMMENTS ON HAMAS-PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY TENSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 005546

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2015
TAGS: PREL KPAL PTER EG IS
SUBJECT: MFA COMMENTS ON HAMAS-PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY TENSION

Classified by: ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons
1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) In a meeting with poloff on July 17, MFA's Desk
Officer for Palestinian Affairs Randa Labib highlighted
concerns over the prospect of a peaceful disengagement from
Gaza and the Hamas-Palestinian Authority (PA) dispute. She
said that she had not yet seen an official report in her
channels on the progress by the Egyptian General Intelligence
Service (EGIS) delegation sent to broker peace between Hamas
and the Palestinian Authority (PA),but she noted that any
agreement to stop Qassem launches would, in her opinion,
remain extremely fragile.


2. (C) On Abu Mazen's ability to control Hamas, Labib said
that Abu Mazen cannot win. She noted that the PA is still
not properly armed and thus cannot collect all of the Qassem
rockets. In addition, even if Hamas and the PA reach an
agreement, reporting from Hamas contacts indicates that there
are elements who do not want a cease fire and want the IDF to
have to withdraw from Gaza under fire. Labib added that
elements in other groups, such as the PIJ, also oppose a
cease fire. For example, she offered, according to her
reports, a rogue PIJ element carried out the Netanya bombing.
Any of these elements can, if they choose, fire Qassem
rockets from random rooftops and thereby spark more violence.
A bigger hurdle, in Labib's view, is that Hamas contacts
allege that they are not required to hold fire because the
Israelis have continued their attacks and arrests.


3. (C) Commenting on prospects for long term Hamas-PA
cooperation, Labib said although Hamas alleged they will not
participate in a unity government, it may still be possible
to broker an agreement allowing them to participate in
decision making. But, she said, Hamas contacts insist that
they want a date certain for elections because they believe
the PA has delayed holding elections out of fear of a loss to
Hamas. Labib speculated that the PA may believe that by
delaying the elections until January, disengagement might be
far enough along that foreign money will be flowing into
Gaza, thereby giving them an opportunity to take credit for
the disengagement and perhaps, take away the edge Hamas
currently enjoys.



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