EGYPT: AN ASSESSMENT OF KIFAYA - THE POPULAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 005272

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT: AN ASSESSMENT OF KIFAYA - THE POPULAR
MOVEMENT FOR CHANGE

REF: A. CAIRO 3424


B. CAIRO 2516

C. CAIRO 1413

Classified by Charge Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

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Summary
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1. (C) The Kifaya (Enough) protest movement has made a
significant impact on Egypt's internal political scene in the
first half of 2005. Kifaya is an umbrella movement
encompassing groups and individuals spanning a broad range of
tendencies and ideologies, united by opposition to the
Mubarak regime. Many observers have been surprised and
impressed by the group's resilience in organizing a series of
small but well publicized demonstrations (lately interrupted)
which feature unusually bold and pointed criticism of both
the regime and the president himself. The GOE has reacted
with dismissive public statements, innuendos about foreign
interference, and occasional arrests and beatings, sometimes
through proxies. Some observers believe Kifaya's impact has
begun to wane, as the group struggles to reconcile the widely
differing ideologies of those gathered under its banner.
While writing Kifaya's obituary would be premature, its long
term viability is uncertain at best. End summary.

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A New Actor on the Stage
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2. (C) The emergence of the Egyptian Popular Movement for
Change, better known by its slogan "Kifaya," has been one of
the most significant aspects of Egypt's evolving political
climate in the first half of 2005 (reftels). Kifaya is not
to be confused with a political party - it lacks both a
cohesive political program and even a discernible
organizational structure beyond a loosely-knit and apparently
erratic leadership. Kifaya is instead an umbrella movement
encompassing elements of widely differing ideologies and
affiliations. Communists, "revolutionary socialists,"
Nasserists, liberals, and Islamists have all identified
themselves as Kifaya members, united in agreement that "Egypt
has had enough" of the Mubarak regime and its vices.

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No Wiring Diagrams
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3. (C) Though Kifaya lacks a clear hierarchy, several
prominent personalities play key leadership/organizational
roles. George Ishaq, a retired Catholic teacher, is probably
the most-quoted Kifaya member, and his downtown Cairo
apartment is often the venue for the group's organizational
meetings and media appearances. Abdel Halim Qandil, editor
of the Nasserist weekly Al-Araby (who was abducted, beaten,
and left naked on a desert highway in an obviously political
incident in November 2004) is often described in media
reports as a spokesman for the group. Kamal Khalil, a former
student activist and director of Egypt's Center for Socialist
Studies, is also a conspicuous Kifaya member, often seen
leading chants at demonstrations. Other important players
often mentioned in discussions of Kifaya are Mohammed Sayyed
Said, the Deputy Director of the semi-official Ahram Center
for Strategic Studies, who brings to the table a more
pragmatic but still intellectual perspective and Hany Anany,
a wealthy businessman thought to underwrite many of the
group's expenses.

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Origins
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4. (C) Most trace Kifaya's roots back to the summer of 2004,
when 300 intellectuals and other public figures issued a
founding statement outlining the group's opposition to what
they described as the GOE's corruption, hypocrisy,
exploitation, and autocracy. The founding statement also
singles out the GOE's failure to confront threats to national
security, including "Zionist aggression" against the
Palestinians, the U.S. occupation of Iraq, and "plans to
redraw the map of the region," such as the Broader Middle
East and North Africa Initiative. Other Egypt watchers note
that Kifaya origins may be traced back even further - to a
late 2003 dinner hosted by Abul Ela Madi -- a former MB,
founder of the proposed "Wasat" (Center) party, and now
Kifaya activist -- at which two dozen activists agreed on the
need for a flexible and broadly based protest movement that
could bridge the gap between intellectuals and the average
"man on the street."


5. (C) It was not until a demonstration in front of Egypt's
court of cassation in late 2004 that Kifaya became a noted
public entity. The demonstration, though small, was the
first time Kifaya's distinctive yellow and red placards,
banners, and stickers, with simple slogans such as "Enough
hypocrisy," "Enough corruption," and "Enough oppression,"
were displayed in public. Local and international
journalists immediately took note of the group's simple,
direct, and bold approach, and of the diversity of those
gathered under the Kifaya banner.

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GOE Reactions
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6. (C) GOE and NDP figures have tended to dismiss Kifaya as
an "elitist" movement and a superficial "photo-op" opposition
without a real base of support. In late April, an NDP
supporter drew nationwide attention (and not a little
bemusement) when he announced the formation of a group called
"Mish kifaya" (not enough) that would advance the argument
that Egypt has not yet had its fill of President Mubarak and
his excellent governance. In a late May newspaper interview,
President Mubarak even accused Kifaya of being a tool of
foreigners, claiming to "know" that the group gets its
funding from abroad. Mubarak's accusation prompted angry
denials by Kifaya, which threatened to sue the president for
defamation. (Note: Kifaya leaders, frequently asked about
their funding sources, generally respond that the costs of
organizing and staging demonstrations are minimal, that all
Kifaya members are volunteers, and that many print signs and
stickers at their own expense. End note.)

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A Climactic Moment
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7. (C) Kifaya has surprised many observers with its
resilience and energy in the spring of 2005, with a series of
relatively small but well publicized and bold demonstrations
that featured sharp, personalized criticism of Mubarak
previously considered beyond the pale of "acceptable" dissent
in Egypt. Kifaya may have peaked in impact with its
demonstrations on referendum day, May 25, urging citizens to
boycott what they perceived as a sham political reform.
Counter demonstrations, featuring thugs widely believed to
have been hired and organized by the ruling NDP who roughed
up Kifaya supporters in the glare of the regional and
international media, backfired spectacularly. The ensuing
backlash included unprecedented local and international
criticism of the GOE's actions on referendum day and spurred
several new offshoot movements by citizens outraged by the
actions of the alleged NDP thugs. With the GOE at least
temporarily on its heels, several protest groups staged
demonstrations in late May and early June without the usual
obstructions from police.

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Has the Ending Begun ?
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8. (C) Kifaya lost momentum, however, later in June, when
after widely publicizing a popular "organizational
conference" that would be open to the public and the media,
they failed to secure a venue for the event. Subsequently,
Embassy contacts report, a major split emerged within the
group over whether and how it should cooperate with the
Muslim Brotherhood (MB). The split was particularly clear
along generational lines, with youthful members strongly in
favor of cooperation with the MB while the older generation,
reportedly including Qandil and Ishaq, adamently opposed.
These Kifaya leaders pointedly and publicly declined the MB's
late May invitation to join its own "Coalition for Change and
Reform" (septel).


9. (C) There have also been divisions within the group over
whether and how to deal with Ayman Nour and his Ghad
(tomorrow) Party. A substantial number of the thousands of
Ghad supporters who appeared at court to protest the opening
of Nour's forgery trial (septels) brandished Kifaya placards
and buttons. Nour himself, entering the defendant's cage in
the courtroom placed a Kifaya sticker on the wall behind him.
Many Kifaya activists, and reportedly key members of the
Kifaya leadership, reportedly view Nour as a shallow
opportunist and self-promoter rather than a committed fellow
traveler, but the open-ended nature of the movement makes it
difficult to exclude almost any regime opponent, including
Nour and his following.


10. (C) One Embassy contact who follows closely Cairo's
"street politics" recently asserted that "Kifaya" as we know
it is over. The widely different ideologies and inclinations
of its members were making internal agreement on tactics and
strategy increasingly elusive, he asserted. However, Abul
Ela Madi (protect) asserted to us on July 10 that Kifaya was
stronger than ever. "We are growing. We are hearing from
more sympathizers every day." Madi agreed that the group's
inability to secure a venue for its "organizational
conference" had been a setback, but affirmed that Kifaya
would go ahead, despite anticipated GOE opposition, with a
planned demonstration in front of Central Cairo's Abdin
Palace on July 14.

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Comment
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11. (C) It would clearly be premature to write Kifaya's
obituary. They may yet, as Madi predicted, regroup and
continue to serve as a potent symbol of popular opposition to
the GOE for the rest of the 2005 election season. Kifaya's
long term viability is much more uncertain. Even Egypt's
leftists, who make up a substantial part of Kifaya's base,
have found it virtually impossible to overcome, among
themselves, differences related both to ideology and
personality. If the leftists have found it this difficult to
agree among themselves, agreement on long term strategy and
tactics with Nasserists, communists, right-leaning
nationalists, and some Islamists, as well as the leftists
currently marching under the Kifaya banner will likely prove
a bridge too far. End comment.


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CORBIN