Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05CAIRO4576
2005-06-16 17:16:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Cairo
Cable title:  

OPPOSITION LEADER ALLEGES PLOT TO FIX THE

Tags:  PGOV EG 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 004576 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2015
TAGS: PGOV EG
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER ALLEGES PLOT TO FIX THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS


Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 004576

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2015
TAGS: PGOV EG
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER ALLEGES PLOT TO FIX THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS


Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) In a June 16 meeting, Ayman Nour, the embattled leader
of the opposition Ghad Party and presidential candidate,
alleged to poloff that aides to President Mubarak have
"persuaded" Khalid Mohieldin, the 84 year old honorary
chairman of the leftist Tagammu' Party, to run for president.
Mohieldin has been sending mixed signals about his
intentions ever since he first expressed interest in running
back in March. Nour alleged that Mohieldin had agreed to run
in exchange for a payment of LE 5 million (about USD 862,000)
and a guarantee of about 20 percent of the vote. Under the
deal, Nour asserted, President Mubarak will "take about 70
percent of the vote" and Mohieldin will take "about 20
percent."


2. (C) The remaining ten percent of the vote, Nour claimed,
would be divided among what he predicted would be "about ten
other candidates," including himself and leaders of small
opposition parties who will take advantage of the grandfather
clause in the constitutional amendment ratified in May which
allows any registered political party to field a candidate in
the 2005 elections only. (In future presidential elections,
according to the terms of the amendment, political parties
will only be allowed to field candidates if they hold at
least five percent of the seats in the legislature.) Nour
said he had learned of the "transaction" from friends who are
disillusioned members of the Tagammu' Party, who reportedly
"confirmed" the story with Kamal al-Shazli, the veteran
machine politician and deputy Secretary-General of the ruling
National Democratic Party.


3. (C) Comment: While Nour's story has the hallmarks of
typical grist from the unceasing Cairo rumor mill, it is
still plausible. The GOE has a long and well documented
history of extensive electoral manipulation and fraud,
witnessed most recently during the May 25 referendum on the
amendment to Article 76 of the constitution. Shazli in
particular is widely believed in previous elections to have
promised given parties or interest groups a set number of
seats, in exchange for various concessions, and is also
widely thought to have "sold" seats to aspiring MPs to the
highest bidder.


4. (C) That the GOE would be eager to enlist Mohieldin as an
opponent to Mubarak makes perfect sense. Though his leftist
politics are out of step with the much of the public, he is
still a widely respected "national figure," a status he
enjoys as one of the original "Free Officers" who conspired
to overthrow King Farouk in 1952. At 84, he makes Mubarak
look young and sprightly by comparison. He would seem to fit
the bill as someone the GOE could describe as a credible,
worthy opponent but who in fact poses no electoral threat
whatsoever. End comment.


Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo

You can also access this site through the
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website.

GRAY