EGYPT'S POLITICAL REFORM AGENDA: MORE IN THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CAIRO 004519

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT'S POLITICAL REFORM AGENDA: MORE IN THE
PIPELINE

REF: A. CAIRO 4005 (NOTAL)


B. CAIRO 3911

C. CAIRO 3617

D. CAIRO 3089 (NOTAL)

Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) The amendment of Article 76 of Egypt's constitution,
ratified by public referendum on May 25 (refs A and B),was
the centerpiece of the GOE's 2005 political reform package,
but not the only item on the agenda. Parliament has been
debating this week a new law that will govern Egypt's first
presidential elections, and is expected to pass a final
version in the coming days. Also waiting on parliament's
docket are revisions to the "political rights" law, with
important ramifications for this fall's legislative
elections. Revisions to the law governing political parties,
and the laws regulating the People's Assembly and the Shura
Council are also on the agenda. One provision in the revised
Political Parties Law, could, if the current language holds,
potentially collide with international donors' plans to offer
technical assistance to political parties. It is not clear
whether a new judiciary bill, demanded by restive Egyptian
judges (ref D),or revisions to the penal code as it applies
to journalists, proposed by President Mubarak in 2004, will
be debated during the current session. The pending drafts we
have examined could still change substantially before they
are finalized. In any case, the bills are generally more
cautious than revolutionary, and whether the proposed changes
will actually constitute progress toward political reform
will depend on how they are implemented. End summary.

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Presidential Elections Law
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2. (SBU) Following parliament's passage in early May of an
amendment to Article 76 of the Egyptian Constitution,
subsequently ratified in the May 25 referendum (refs A and
B),parliament has been working on a requisite law to govern
the first presidential election in Egypt's history. Debate
on the new law in a plenary session of the Shura Council was
televised on the GOE's Nile News channel on June 13. Once
approved by the Shura Council, the bill will move to the
People's Assembly for further debate and final passage.


3. (SBU) Among the signficiant features of the bill are that
it:

-- Specifies a ten-member electoral commission to supervise
the presidential election - composed of three senior judicial
officials - (the Heads of the Supreme Constitutional Court,
the Court of Cassation, and the Supreme Court of Appeals,
respectively); and five "nonpartisan" members of the public,
to be nominated by the parliament, and representatives of the
ministries of Interior and Justice;

-- Imposes campaign spending limits (and partial public
finance of campaigns);

and

-- Mandates equal access to state media (although it also
states that if one of the candidates is an incumbent
president, coverage of the performance of his official duties
will not be counted as campaign coverage);


5. (SBU) Opposition members of parliament and opposition
party newspapers have been vocal in their criticisms of the
bill. They complain that the final composition of the
electoral commission is to be defined in a Presidential
Decree, thus giving the executive a de facto veto over any
commission member. They have argued that the media access
rules will prove meaningless and unenforceable.


6. (C) Perhaps most significantly, critics have complained
that the law is silent on the question of a presidential
candidate's military service. The issue of military service
is widely seen as a stealth weapon against Presidential son
and potential successor Gamal Mubarak, who may or may not
have performed his military service "on paper" (as many
well-connected Egyptian sons have done) but clearly can not
point to a credible military career as one of his patriotic
credentials.

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Political Rights
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7. (SBU) Following the Presidential Elections Law, the next
bill parliament is expected to take up, probably during the
week of June 20, is a draft revising various provisions to
law 73/1956 - the "Political Rights" law. The new bill calls
for the establishment of an election commission charged with
overseeing elections for the national legislature. The
current draft of the bill calls for a ten-member commission
to be composed of three sitting judges and five non-partisan
members to be named by the Shura Council, of whom two should
be retired judges, and representatives of the Ministries of
Justice and Interior. The bill also specifies the mandate of
the commission, which includes setting the rules for
establishing and updating voter lists, setting rules for
regulating campaigns, and rules for processing and announcing
election results. The bill also stiffens penalties for those
convicted of election-related crimes and penalties for those
who cast multiple votes. To combat multiple voting, the bill
calls for the application of indelible ink to voters'
fingers.


8. (SBU) Critics of the bill have complained that, like the
presidential elections bill, the draft leaves a de facto veto
of the composition of the electoral commission in the hands
of the executive. Opposition critics also complain that
while the commission "sets the rules" for the regulation of
elections, the actual conduct of key electoral functions,
like the maintenance of voter lists, remains in the hands of
the Ministry of Interior.

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Political Parties
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9. (SBU) Parliament will also be taking up revisions to Law
40/1977, which regulates political parties. The bill
currently in circulation increases the number of members
required to form a new party from 50 to 1000 (a requirement
clearly intended to discourage the proliferation of "paper
parties") and expunges outdated references to "the principles
of the 1952 revolution" and the "protection of socialist
achievements." The bill also expands the composition of the
Shura Council's Political Parties Committee, which reviews
and approves or rejects license applications by prospective
new parties - by adding six members of the public, three of
whom should be retired members of the judiciary.


10. (SBU) Another significant feature of the bill is a change
in procedure for reviewing prospective new parties' license
applications: Prospective new parties would be able to
consider their submitted applications approved if, after 90
days, they are not officially rejected.


11. (C) The issue of "foreign funding," a perennial hot topic
in Egyptian politics, is also addressed in the Political
Parties bill, with an explicit prohibition of parties'
acceptance of "any donation, privilege or benefit from any
foreigner" (including Egyptian dual nationals) "...or any
foreign body or international body." (Comment: This
provision, if it holds in the final draft, could collide with
the intent of the USG and other international donors to take
up projected activities such as non-partisan political party
strengthening. End comment.)


12. (SBU) The bill offers GOE funding of LE 100,000 (about
USD 17,000) to each party, plus LE 5000 (about USD 860) for
each parliamentary seat won by a party, to a maximum of LE
500,000 (about USD 82,000) for each party.


13. (SBU) Critics in the opposition complain that the
executive will continue to have too much influence over the
Political Parties Committee, and also complain that the bill
does not change the article in the law stipulating that no
party can be licensed unless it offers a "unique and distinct
program that enriches political life." This provision, that
new parties' programs must significantly differ from those of
existing parties, is the most commonly cited cause for
rejection of a license application.

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Parliamentary Affairs Laws
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14. (SBU) Also on the docket for this parliamentary session
are laws (one each for the People's Assembly and the Shura
Council) that govern the conduct of members of parliament and
qualifications required to hold a seat. On qualifications,
the draft maintains the requirement (of those born before
1970) that they be able to read and write, but imposes an
additional requirement of an elementary education certificate
for those born after. According to the new draft, candidates
may not use places of worship, schools, or universities as
campaign venues. The law also explicitly forbids candidates
from accepting funds from abroad, including funds from
Egyptians living abroad. The bill also increases the bonus
provided to members of parliament and an additional bonus for
the speakers of the People's Assembly and the Shura Council.


15. (SBU) Critics charge that the low standard of "literacy"
imposed on members is intended to protect members from rural
areas who contribute little to the legislative process but
who can be counted upon for their slavish loyalty to the
regime. Critics have also attacked the provision in the bill
in which members award themselves a pay raise, given the
dubious performance (they claim) of many parliamentarians,
particularly those with a penchant for absenteeism.

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Judicial, Press Bills May or May Not Appear
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16. (SBU) Parliament watchers remain uncertain whether
revisions to laws governing the judiciary and proposed
revisions to the penal code as it applies to the press, will
be presented during the current legislative session. As
reported ref D, thousands of Egyptian judges grew restive
this spring, demanding various changes to the existing law
that they argued would augment their independence, including
an expansion of their autonomy and authority as electoral
supervisors. The judges even threatened to abstain from
their electoral supervision duties if their demands were not
met.


17. (C) Justice Minister Mahmoud Aboul Leil appeared by late
May to have succeeded in at least partially defusing the
judges' "revolt" by convincing (or coercing) thousands of
judges to sign a document affirming their intent to fulfill
their obligations as electoral supervisors. Some speculated
that the Justice Ministry would also move forward with new
legislation which addressed some of the judges' complaints,
although as of mid-June there were still no signs that a new
judicial bill had been drafted or would move forward in the
current legislative term.


18. (SBU) In early 2004, President Mubarak called for
revisions to the press law to eliminate jail terms from the
range of penalties that could be imposed upon journalists
found guilty of libel. The President's call was met with a
warm welcome by many observers, particularly in Egypt's media
sector, who hailed the move as an important political reform
step. The warm feelings had evaporated by mid-2005, however,
as the GOE had still taken no steps to implement the
President's directive and journalists continue to be
sentenced to jail.


19. (C) The GOE's reaction to recent case in which three
journalists with the liberal daily Al-Masry Al-Youm were
convicted of libel and sentenced to jail suggests that the
government is embarrassed by its failure to act. Al-Masry
Al-Youm's publisher told us that a senior GOE contact had
called him shortly after the verdict and urged that the three
promptly file an appeal. Once filed, the appeal was promptly
granted, and the three were never imprisoned. Parliament
watchers have continued to await word of a bill that would
revise the penal code in accordance with Mubarak's 2004
announcement, but as of mid-June there were no signs such a
bill would be forthcoming.

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Comment
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20. (C) As is generally the case with political reform steps
taken by the GOE, drafters of the pending political bills
have exercised caution and left significant room for
maneuver, in either progressive or regressive directions, to
those who will implement the future laws. Should GOE
decision makers so choose, many of the proposed changes could
have sweeping impact. For example, the establishment of
truly independent electoral commissions, if granted adequate
latitude and authority over the process, could go far toward
eliminating the fraud and manipulation that has characterized
previous elections. On the other hand, should other
provisions be narrowly interpreted, many of the changes
proposed could actually be regressive. The prohibition on
political parties' acceptance of "any benefit" for any
foreign entity, for example, could theoretically be invoked
to block international donors' plans to offer technical
assistance (on a non-partisan basis) to political parties in
the context of efforts to promote democratic institution
building. In either case, it is too early to draw
conclusions: Experience has demonstrated that the bills
currently in circulation could still undergo many important
changes before they become law.

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