Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05CAIRO4264
2005-06-06 16:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Cairo
Cable title:  

EGYPT: ANOTHER BLOW TO THE GHAD PARTY

Tags:  PGOV KDEM EG 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 004264 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT: ANOTHER BLOW TO THE GHAD PARTY

REF: A. CAIRO 3840


B. CAIRO 2506

C. CAIRO 2285

D. CAIRO 2254

E. CAIRO 1926

F. 04 CAIRO 8355

Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 004264

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT: ANOTHER BLOW TO THE GHAD PARTY

REF: A. CAIRO 3840


B. CAIRO 2506

C. CAIRO 2285

D. CAIRO 2254

E. CAIRO 1926

F. 04 CAIRO 8355

Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) The Ghad Party, the beleaguered liberal/secular
political party founded by Ayman Nour, has suffered another
severe setback with the late May resignation of
Secretary-General Mona Makram Ebeid. Ebeid, a

SIPDIS
widely-respected figure, had lent both stature and substance
to the fledgling party. Her departure compounds the woes of
a party which, after a heady and optimistic launch last fall
(ref F),is now beset with harassment and intimidation (ref
A),riven by factions, and sapped of resources, direction,
and momentum at a time when it should be preparing to field
candidates in the fall's parliamentary elections. Party
leader Ayman Nour is set to go on trial on June 28 on
criminal forgery charges - in a case he and his supporters
maintain was manufactured by political enemies within the GOE
bent on derailing the Ghad. With Ebeid's departure, and
Nour's imminent trial, it is difficult to be sanguine about
the Ghad Party's prospects. End summary.

--------------
Another Blow
--------------


2. (C) On May 28, Mona Makram Ebeid, Secretary-General of the
Ghad Party, announced her resignation. The move constitutes
a severe blow to a party which has been reeling and on the
verge of implosion since the late January arrest of party
leader Ayman Nour and his subsequent indictment on criminal
forgery charges. Ebeid is a Coptic academic, former Member
of Parliament, and daughter of a prestigious family with a
prominent role in Egypt's historic nationalist movement.
Ebeid was a founding member of the Ghad Party and had lent it
considerable stature, particularly since she was elected
Secretary-General at the first party conference in November

SIPDIS

2004. In a recent meeting with U.S. officials, Interior
Minister Habib Adly could barely conceal his glee at Ebeid's
departure, asserting that she had "realized her association"
with Nour and his party was "damaging her distinguished
reputation."


3. (C) In a June 5 interview with the tabloid al-Osboa, Ebeid

asserted that her primary reason for leaving was her
assessment that the party's internal rifts had become
impossible because of the presence of "opportunists who do
not really believe in the party's liberal agenda." Though
apparently reluctant to criticize Ayman Nour in harsh terms,
she opined that his eagerness to cast party recruitment nets
widely, rather than forming a smaller core, had led to the
inclusion in the party of too many diverse personalities
pursuing their own agendas.


4. (C) In a recent conversation with poloff, Ghad Party Vice
President for foreign relations Hisham Kassem (protect)
expressed frustration and disdain at Ebeid's resignation.
"She picked the worst possible time to leave," he opined,
noting that party leader Ayman Nour's trial is a matter of
weeks away.

--------------
Comment
--------------


5. (C) The Ghad's cohesiveness and potential longevity was
uncertain even during its brief honeymoon in late 2004, but
the January arrest and subsequent indictment of Nour on
criminal forgery charges put intense pressure on the party,
dividing its leadership into factions and prompting
defections, including most recently and damagingly, that of
Ebeid.


6. (C) Many credible observers believe the hobbling, if not
the actual destruction, of the party has been an objective of
hardliners within ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) for
some time. According to multiple accounts, Nour infuriated
NDP strongmen Kamal el-Shazly and Safwat El-Sherif when he
refused to join the consensus of opposition parties, hammered
out at the "national dialogue" of political parties chaired
by Sherif, that the issue of constitutional reform could be
deferred until after the 2005 elections. Ironically, (or
purposefully),Mubarak announced his constitutional reform
initiative only weeks after the opposition parties caved in
on their own constitutional reform demands at the urging of
Sherif and Shazly.


7. (C) Nour's late January arrest triggered an immediate
crisis in the party, with rival factions emerging - some
taking advantage of the vacuum to jockey for position and
others bickering furiously over whether U.S./international
support should be welcomed or rejected. Nour's wife, herself
a party office holder, and other party contacts asserted that
those factions pushing for "a rejection of foreign
interference" were doing so at the urging of Egyptian State
Security, which has allegedly taken a close interest in the
party's internal affairs. Ghad Party contacts also accuse
State Security and the ruling NDP of instigating sustained
harassment and intimidation of party leadership and
supporters (charges detailed in ref A).


8. (C) With Nour's trial set to begin at the end of June, it
is difficult to be sanguine about the party's prospects.
Nour and his supporters continue to insist that he is
innocent of the forgery charges. The forged signatures on
the party's licensing documents, Nour and supporters
maintain, were placed there by NDP/GOE operatives who had
penetrated the party and Nour's private law office for the
express purpose of sabotage. Embassy contacts, including
prominent reform advocates disagree sharply about Nour and
his bone fides. While he has some support among reformers
and on the street, many others dismiss him as a slick
opportunist.


9. (C) Even most of those quick to disdain Nour, however,
generally add that they believe the case against him was
instigated by his political enemies in the government. At a
minimum, most agree, Nour is facing a politically-motivated
and selective prosecution aimed at destroying his reputation
and taking him out of the game. Though the Ghad Party's saga
is not yet complete, many interpret its sinking fortunes as a
cautionary tale about what happens when political parties and
their leaders become too aggressive about competing for power
in Egypt. End comment.


Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo

You can also access this site through the
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website.

GRAY

#4264